The US housing market does not have enough homes to meet demand. Jason discusses deregulation and how it has served us and hindered us. Harry Dent comes back on the show to discuss a bubble that’s been waiting to pop, referring to the financial asset bubble.
Introduction Speaker 0:02
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it on now. here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 0:54
Welcome to Episode 1487 And today, we have Part One One of a two part rant a rant, literally a rant with Harry dent. And I think you’ll enjoy it quite a bit. And you might be asking, why did we split this one into two parts? You will soon realize that when you start to hear it, it’s because maybe on this one, you need a break. I know I did. Boy Harry was, uh, he was on this time. I mean, he’s been on the show several times. But this time, he was really, really on. And I know that some of you said the last interview. Well, you didn’t say it about the podcast because it’s slightly different editing. We have different editors for podcasts and YouTube. So they’re not exactly the same. But some of you left comments on my YouTube channel saying, Jason, you gotta let Harry talk more. He interrupted him too much. Okay, fine. Well, you know, listen, folks, just understand something. My job here is to make the show interesting. And if the guest isn’t making the show interesting, well, then I have to interrupt them so that the show will be more interesting. But anyway, I’ll take my knocks and my criticism once in a while. So I didn’t interrupt him this time. I let him roll. And boy, he brought it he really brought it to this one. So I think you’ll like it, but it reminded me of one of the best movie scenes of all time. And, you know, it’s about so much that’s going on in the world today. This morning, I interviewed the CEO of Santiago capital hedge fund manager Brent Johnson. Great interview. We’ll have that one coming up for you probably next week. And boy, we got some we got some good stuff coming up. That was a fantastic interview with Brent this morning. But what it’s all about in what is difficult In times like this is really what George Orwell said. When did he say this? Probably back around 1949 when he wrote the book 1984 and obviously we’re way past both of those areas right now. But sadly, what he said predicted for saw is eerily and scarily is scarily a word. I don’t know. Look it up, go to Jason Hartman comm slash ask and let me know if scarily is a word. For some reason that just doesn’t sound like it should be a word. But who cares because no one cares about proper English anymore sadly. Anyway, we see all of this craziness that’s going on in the world. We see world events that have been completely be formed into a whole other meanings. They don’t even mean what they meant. They mean something else. They mean something else, that the news media that the globalist elite had an agenda for. They literally changed the meaning of events. How significant is that? It’s hugely significant. And George Orwell said way back when he said, In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. So let’s go to this clip. It’s good. You probably heard it before. Here it is.
Jason Hartman 4:39
You don’t have to answer that question.
I’ll answer the question. You want answers?
Jason Hartman 4:47
You can’t handle the truth.
Son. We live in a world that has walls and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who’s gonna do it? You You Lieutenant Weinberg? I have greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. you weep for Santiago and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury, you have the luxury of not knowing what I know that Santiago’s death while tragic, probably saved lives, and my existence while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don’t want the truth because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that wall? You need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty, we use these words as the backbone of a lifespan defending something, you use them as a punchline, I have neither the time or the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provided. I would rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand a post. Either way, I don’t give a damn what you think. You are entitled to your code read. I did the job to
please the Court. I suggested members be dismissed so that we can move for
the immediate article 39 a session.
The witness has rights.
Jason Hartman 6:21
Captain Ross, that is undoubtably one of the greatest movie scenes of all time from a few good men. And jack and Tom, they brought it that is that is stellar acting for sure, no question about it. But the principle is so true. You know, you can see both sides of the argument. The lawyer is saying hey, look, he wants the truth. And the truth in and of itself has meaning. But you can see the other side of it. Right? The colonel. He has a case two, he says as everybody else sleeps under the blanket of freedom that he provides, and then questions, the manner in which he provides it. And he says, Hey, pick up a weapon and stand a post, or just say thank you. And that’s a fair argument on both sides. So you choose, that’s why everything’s situational, right? It’s, it’s never totally clear. And that’s why that movie was such a great movie. Because we can all see both sides. I mean, when you watch a show or a movie, you find yourself rooting for the bad guy, even though you’re probably a very moral person. Well, I know that some people aren’t because we have some immoral people that listen to the show. I know they are. High immoral people. It’s not many of you, but there’s a couple out there in the audience. I know them. Yeah, but even a moral ethical person can really see both sides and sometimes we find ourselves rooting for The bad guy, because we’re looking at the greater good. So was it Karl Marx, the most influential economists that ever lived? Sadly, who said that the road to hell is paved with good intentions, that the end justifies the means. I don’t know, does it? These are questions we will wrestle with, till time immemorial. Occasionally it does. No. Occasionally it does, but rarely rarely. Okay. Anyway, let’s talk about some housing news. Before we get to Harry dents rant, and it is a rant. I love it. This was one of my favorite shows with him. So first off, you know, we have properties in Atlanta. Yes, we do. Yes, we do. And the Atlanta market heats up. I’m reading an article from housing wire. Pending home sales rise 20% in the first week. Yes, in the first week, the first seven days of June, pending home sales in Atlanta up 20%. Despite shutdowns city sees your over year growth in pending sales in the first half of 2020, summer home buying season is in full force in sales are heating up. Wow, that’s pretty amazing. Pretty amazing National Housing demand was up 25% from pre pandemic levels, and Atlanta, up 20% just in one week in June. So it is truly staggering. And we actually have inventory there. There’s not much, but we do have some and it’s good quality stuff. A lot of you were on our webinar. And by the way, if you didn’t catch our Southwest Florida webinar, I know I’m moving around geographically here but not by much. It’s only a few hundred
Jason Hartman 10:01
Be sure to catch that one. It is Jason hartman.com slash webinar, Jason hartman.com slash webinar. And we’ve got another webinar coming up for you on rent guarantee insurance. You’ve asked about that one, and I think I mentioned it yesterday. So more on that and we’ll get a link to that in the show notes as well. Now, here’s another article I’m looking at. This is by Kathleen Halley, and it says, Here’s why there aren’t enough homes to buy right now. Here’s why there aren’t enough homes to buy right now. home building will continue to lag household formation. NAR National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun says he was on the show many years ago. And there’s just a structural housing shortage in this country. I interviewed a guest today James B. Steele, who’s the author of a few great books by the way. He’s a Pulitzer Prize winning investigative journalist Think you want to Pulitzers and he’s an economic investigative journalist writes for wall street journal Vanity Fair, etc, etc. And he’s out with a new book. We’ll probably have that interview for you next week. But we talked about commercial real estate, and how some deregulation really would help people find homes. Because commercial real estate is a disaster in almost every sector of commercial real estate, certainly retail and office properties in less third, suburban. There are a few exceptions, of course, Everywhere you look, because it’s a big marketplace, and there’s a lot of segments and nuances, obviously, but just broad brush, they’re a disaster. And if cities and counties would lighten up on zoning regulations, and deregulate some of this stuff, we could really put a huge dent in the economy. Will Smith problem in this country by allowing easy low cost conversion of some of this big box retail property. And this is just me talking. This has nothing to do with the article, by the way, I started on the article, but hey, tangent alert, tangent alert, you know, me, I tend to get off on tangents. So this is one of them. Anyway, I really making it easy and inexpensive to convert some of these office properties, and some of these retail properties to housing. You know, there’s a glut of office and retail properties, and there’s a massive shortage of housing. So we got to do something in this country. And that would really, really help if we deregulated see, a lot of people think there are problems because of deregulation. And it’s counterintuitive, but in many cases, the problem is regulation. The regulation creates a new problem that causes a situation where there is no compared to what? Where you can’t hear the dogs that don’t bark. You can’t see the profound impact of things that didn’t happen. And what didn’t happen is we didn’t provide more housing in that example. But either way, we know that governments, whether they’re local, state or federal level, any level of government, typically very inefficient, you know, bought off by various lobbyists and special interest groups. And we know that the likelihood is what I just said isn’t going to happen in any significant way. And what does that mean for us as real estate investors, it means there will be a continuing massive housing shortage. And what does that mean for us real estate investors on the next stage of that what it means of course is higher rents and higher prices, so congratulations because government It is unlikely to solve the problem with relaxed regulation, every property will still have to be built to all these over the top codes, they’ll still have to have 29 smoke detectors and you know, 52, carbon monoxide detectors and a whole bunch of this and that and everything else. When people have to sleep in their car and sleep in the street, they never examine how dangerous it is to sleep in your car on the street. But they know that you got to build these properties to the highest level of code, so people don’t get hurt. But the reality is, you can’t hear the dogs that don’t bark. They’re being hurt much worse, living in disgusting tenement housing, in their car on the street, whatever. That’s the reality of the situation. Anyway, back to the article back to the article so the homebuilding will lag, so the housing markets weakest link it says is about to get even weaker, as Home Builders stay on the sidelines amid the COVID-19 panel demick housing starts that measure how many single family homes builders break ground on will fall to only 770,000 this year. That is the lowest level in five years.
Jason Hartman 15:15
Isn’t that tragic, folks? I mean, it’s the lowest level in five years when the demand is higher than it was five years ago. And five years ago, there was a structural housing shortage. The article goes on to say as the economic fallout from COVID-19 pandemic makes it tough to do business, according to a forecast from Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of National Association of Realtors, economist who at the start of 2020, we’re projecting the biggest year for homebuilding since 2007. are now saying construction won’t be able to solve the historic dearth of homes for sale. The 1.47 million properties on the market at the end of April was The lowest on record for the month, according to NAR data. Now, remember, springtime. In fact, April, specifically, is always super busy season, when I was in traditional real estate, I would make so much money every April, it was always the best month of the year for me, I would just crank out lots and lots of sales. And what would typically happen is I would go and take listings in these different areas of Orange County, California where I had a lot of business, and my signs would be up depending on when the seller listed their home maybe usually in January after the holidays, properties depending on how the market was the economy, etc, etc. It’s complicated. they’d sit there for a while sometimes and I’d have a for sale sign up there. And then all of a sudden, boom, March and April came along and boom. Sold signs went up everywhere and all my properties had sold signs on them. Every weekend, I come into the office at REMAX in Irvine, California. And I would, I would open a whole bunch of escrows in the morning on Monday morning. And I was one of the top agents in the entire city of Irvine, you know, amongst the top in Orange County, and was selling a lot of properties. So with that experience, hopefully I can guide you to make good decisions. And so this article goes on to say, of course, it talks about the low housing inventory being the lowest recorded for that month. The lack of inventory is a major bottleneck to growth. Lawrence Yun says he goes on to say there is a tremendous amount of buyer interest. And the supply is not catching up with the growth of demand. That’s a quote by the way, Americans created 11.4 million households in 10 years through 2019. So that means from 2000 Nine to 2019 11.4 million new households were created. Now, keep in mind the concept of the shadow inventory there. Still, you’ve got a lot of people being roommates. And in my pandemic and investing presentation that’s coming up at our upcoming meet the Masters virtual conference, save the date for that I’ve given it to you already. I’m going to talk about that extensively the roommate factor, the multi generational living factor, the factor of people living at home with their parents, which by the way, is still happening and now actually increasing a little bit into the pandemic. So, there’s a lot of shadow demand for housing. But look at these numbers. I mean, this is amazing. Okay. 11.4 million new households created in just 10 years, but builders sold only 5.2 million single family homes in that same Period. Yet in the prior decade, they sold 10.4 million new homes
Jason Hartman 19:10
according to government data, so Exactly. Half. Isn’t that interesting? That’s exactly half. It’s 50%. Down. The construction was half of what it was the prior decade. Yet we had 11.4 million new households formed. That doesn’t mean 11.4 million people, that’s households, people that need a house. And a lot of these people because of this housing shortage, they just doubled up or they were forced to stay in a much smaller place that wasn’t adequate for their needs. Or they live in a high rise in a city and they’re paying $4,000 a month rent when they could rent a suburban home, that’s three times the size from you for only 1400 dollars a month. You can find all those properties by the way. Jason Hartman comm slash properties, shameless self promotion. Okay, anyway, the shortage of homes for sale going back to the article playing the housing market long before COVID-19 pandemic Yun said, but the supply disruptions and the lock downs that ensued have only made it worse. While the elevated unemployment rate in April and May are also a challenge to the housing market, reducing the number of people who can qualify for mortgages to buy homes. The housing market still doesn’t have enough supply to meet demand from the employed share of Americans who want to purchase properties. He said. So think about that for a moment. I know a lot of people, they look at the news and hey, they’ve got a lot to be concerned about now. Question the unemployment rate is, it’s tragic. But just for the employed share of people who can qualify and can afford a house, there isn’t enough housing for them to buy. And even for the unemployed people, they still need a place to live. So this is a giant societal problem, but it is going to benefit all of you as real estate investors, and you can do your part, you can help out by going to Jason Hartman calm, buying rental properties, and providing good quality rental housing for these people because you can see that there are millions of people who are under housed. With that, let’s go to our rant with Harry dent. If you need us, we’re here. One 800 Hartman or Jason Hartman calm and here is part one of the rant from here. Now it’s my pleasure to welcome Harry dent back to the show. He’s been on many times with us. And as you may know, I discovered his work back in 1995. I’ve been a fan ever since. He really looks at the demographic side of economics, which I think is a very powerful way to look at big macro trends. And he’s here today to talk about what is going on and there is a lot going on, with bubbles popping everywhere we look Harry, welcome back. Good to be back. Jason. It’s good to have you always always. So we were talking off here a little bit and you were on just a couple of months ago to about how this bubble was a bubble that was going to pop anyway Coronavirus is just sort of an excuse or maybe it’s cover the inevitable to happen.
Harry Dent 22:52
Yeah, you know, I’d call it the perfect trigger, Jason because this is one thing I mean, they can do massive money printing and fiscal stimulus and stop a recession and his track they can stop a stock slide or crash. Yeah. And they did that in early 2009. All this money printing and stuff does not stop the virus. He cushions the economy from the virus. So the virus is perfect in that it causes a sudden shock, not a gradual one, like a recession naturally building you were okay. The economy weakens and then more businesses default layoff and then it weakens more. So this is we’re suddenly we’re in a depression right now. Yeah, probably, you know, officially 14.7% unemployment probably really ought to be 20%. GDP is going to be down you know, I think it was down six or 7%. But first quarter is going to be down could be 20% or more in the second quarter. And that’s just temporary that that level won’t last but this is depression. You have to go back to 1930 to 33 to find unemployment and GDP drops and things like this. So it’s a big hit, but it is typically Right. And I was Jason like, Oh, it was very late. It was third week in March, when the markets were, you know, just it bottomed. And you know, thought this virus was just going straight up. I said, No, if you look at an S curve progression at the daily deaths, and cases instead of the cumulative, it’s already starting to decelerate. And this fires by early to mid April, it’s going to be obvious to the world that this thing is going away. Now, it’s held up more stubbornly than normal but but that was what causes the markets or caused the markets most to bounce. Because you got to remember my my key date, I think it was March 16. That was a Monday after three days of the Federal Reserve announcing the most aggressive stimulus program $5 trillion repo line, not just a couple hundred billion and 750 billion have extra money printing and bond buying and buying junk bonds and everything and a bunch of other stuff and some fiscal stimulus Monday, the market opens, it drops 15% the Dow dropped, you know, 15% in one day, the market said, Hey, Been there, done that. Okay, you guys have been printing money for 11 years, and we’re in this bigger crisis. So it was seeing the virus turned around and could see that, hey, this thing is going away for now. So we’re in a bounce and so I tell people, the focus is to understand this virus as a trigger a big trigger. Now we are in a in a shock that’s going to cause deflation. I’m wondering right now I’m telling the gold bugs and people falling go Why is gold going up? Oh, yeah, infinite money printing. But what about a deflation shock? What if prices go down? Five or 10% on the next CPI report a month from now, you think gold is going to go up with that gold hates deflation and loves inflation. So I think everybody’s gonna, everybody knows this is bad, but it’s gonna be more shocking when you actually see The statistics and see the impacts. And I’ll give you a quick example Jason because I went through in Puerto Rico, I moved here four years ago for all types of reasons and really happy I did, right. But we got to hit, you know, the worst hurricane and 90 to 100 years. We had a three month shock. I mean, electricity was just mostly out now. No cable or TV, I could even watch CNBC for crying out loud. no internet, most of the time cell phone only worked on my 17th floor soon as I hit the ground. That didn’t even work. So my wife and I had to escape to New York for three months. So we had a thing like this a debt economy for three months. And guess what did we have a V shape recovery? No, it was U shaped. And so that’s what this is like, what I noticed real simply, particularly small businesses, I had 21 restaurants within walking distance, I mean, literally a block and a half walking 25% of them never reopened. So those jobs were then of course, tons of other businesses like that as well. So people Don’t get that either. There is no going back to normal here or near term, or even then the next few years from major industries like travel and major entertainment. I mean, I was supposed to be in Australia right now on on a five city tour for two weeks. No. Next week, I’m doing a full day online live stream. We’ve never done that before. We’re probably gonna have 4000 people on that that would have gotten it the live seminar.
Jason Hartman 27:27
That’s a great point. Okay. So let me stop you there. I agree with you. I think we are going to come out of this into a much smaller economy globally, not just the US but every economy is just going to be smaller. I think people are more interested in a simpler life. And I think we’re going to kind of go back to basics a bit. When I think of the depression I think of that show. I used to watch the reruns of when I was a kid, The Waltons, of course you remember Waltons, right. That’s my picture of the Great Depression back in the 30s. And I just think we’re going back to it basics in a lot of these industries just will never recover. You can’t You can’t run a restaurant it 25 to 50% capacity with social distancing, you
Harry Dent 28:11
know, it takes most of the fun out of
Jason Hartman 28:12
Harry Dent 28:15
ships will slowly cruise ships will take years because cruise ships are in a very good demographic older boomers who are sick of the stress of real travel and all that sort of stuff so but the thing is though still longer term you know a few years to now first of all, we have a big crash to go through. So that’s a whole nother topic. But people earn in spend about the same amount of money, they’ll just shift it to other things quality of life. And I tell you, I, I think a lot of people realize, Oh, my gosh, why do I go to work every day, maybe two weeks a day, a week, two times a week is worth it for my business. And then I can have more time at home don’t have to dress up and much more time with my kids. But we can spend more money on other things and I’ve had this thing in tour. I’ve tried to convince My promoters in Australia for years they say Harry had gotta go there live just doesn’t work. Yeah, we’re getting more people on this webinar than we ever thought live at a fraction of the cost, right, Tony, are you business better? We’re gonna get better because it is. I always call it like the Great Depression, any recession, the pause that refreshes, right? Anytime things go wrong, it forces us to think different or reevaluate stuff. And guess what, we get smarter, we don’t get dumber, we get smart, right,
Jason Hartman 29:29
we get more efficient. So every time there’s a war, and this is essentially a type of a war we’re living in now. We create new technologies, new efficiencies, or at least we accept them. And now people have accepted online meetings, whereas before, they just wouldn’t adopt them. And so all of those efficiencies that are being created are going to stick with us. And that’s a good thing. I mean, Harry, if you don’t have to fly to Australia, and waste all those travel days, you may want
Harry Dent 29:58
to go We eat I know.
Jason Hartman 30:01
Yeah. So it’s a lot, you’re going to be a lot more productive, sharing your knowledge on that live webinar. And then you’ll be able to do other things and create more value in the economy by not moving around, moving around.
Harry Dent 30:17
Here’s example of simple economic, I’ll make half as much money doing this online in a 10th of the time, not even a 10th. Right, which frees up a lot better. Yeah, to do other things that I can
Jason Hartman 30:30
do for you and your audience.
Harry Dent 30:33
And, you know, people always, you know, it’s my biggest criticism of central banks. I call them academic economists who’ve never had sex or run a business, dictating what happens in the economy. They think we should always grow. What’s wrong with these people? Can you function without going to sleep six, seven hours a night? Try it for a few nights, you’ll be turning in your mother to the Nazi Right, okay. interrogation, you’ll be so out of it. The body naeemi economy needs to rest. innovate. We do innovate when things go bad rather than wars cause the greatest innovations, the deepest recessions, depressions, I study innovation, they always come at the most challenging times. And then they get adopted in the economy in the more benign times it’s a natural cycle, grow, and do maintenance, repair, and restore, and transform, and then boom and bust and inflation and disinflation, these are natural cycles. The Economist want what everybody wants in life, a zip line to heaven. We just grow, grow, grow, grow, get better, better, better, go to heaven and stay there forever. Oh, okay. Maybe in heaven doesn’t happen that way on earth here. So I go as far to say, Jason, most economists, and particularly central bankers, have no clue of what actually drives the economy. In fact, what they focus on governments governments are 20% of GDP, and they’re the lagging edge of the train. There. out the locomotive in the main part, consumers drive 70% of GDP directly where they’re spending, business capital investment to gear up to meet their growth is the other 10%. That’s 80 governments 20. And consumers and businesses are the leading edge governments. Why is everybody studying government policies? Right now? It’s a big deal, because they’re What are they doing reacting? reacting to a problem? They’re not. So why would you look at the government is any sort of leading indicator, unless it’s a dictator who can do whatever they want whenever they want,
Jason Hartman 32:34
right? Well, because people just have this odd, unusual faith in government that government’s gonna rescue me this cradle to grave mentality. It’s totally unproductive. It’s ridiculous. It doesn’t work.
Harry Dent 32:45
Yeah. What is good government or not? They still don’t drive the economy, right. And so I look at people that’s why you know, you said demographics was my specialty, although I do a lot of other cycles. Technology is the other big demographics, when generations Grow up become more. They don’t just spend more money, they become more productive at workers at the same time. It’s a win win, supply and demand expand in a boom. I can tell those booms in any country roughly decades ahead. It’s a predictable thing. numbers of people born and immigrants. I can adjust for that. When will they spend the most money in the highest numbered Piece of cake? I can’t tell people when every country in the world is going to peak and their overall spending and you know what China is done? Yeah. Randy is just getting going. Yeah, yeah. India will never be the next China China will have won’t be able to keep up with India, China.
Jason Hartman 33:36
China’s not going to be the next China. And you know what, I want to ask you about that, because we’ve talked about that before. I think this is your 11th time on my show. And it’s always great to have you. China’s one child policy has really set in motion a future demographic disaster. What years does that hit? I want to say it’s in about 10 to 15 years. It’s already here already.
Harry Dent 34:00
In 11, was their peak workforce ever? Okay? It’s been declining ever since it’ll continue to decline for decades and decades. China doesn’t have immigration, people don’t move to China. Chinese move out of China, particularly rich people, they get their money out of China because it’s not a trustworthy government. Right? It’s not a democracy. Now, the other thing though, China has done something worse than that. That was way in the past. Okay. They’ve tried to lighten up on that. Guess what, it hasn’t done any good once people get urban, they don’t want to have kids everywhere in the world. China’s done something worse. They’ve created the biggest top down over expansion. They’ve driven urbanization a lot faster than normal progressions that it’s easier to tolerate. They got excess capacity in industry across the board. 20% 22% empty homes and cities condos 22%. At the same time, engineered by the government, they got the highest price Real Estate compared to income in the whole world.
Jason Hartman 35:02
Yeah. And guess what else? People are afraid
Harry Dent 35:05
that’s a bigger disaster than their demographic flow and plague is debt bubble in history about to crash,
Jason Hartman 35:11
right and people are afraid to live in high density areas now. So, you know, if you got to be in an elevator or mass transit, those are the two biggest danger zones, according to me, and social distancing as the new normal. It’s going to be interesting for sure. This will be continued on the next episode. Thank you for listening and happy investing.
Jason Hartman 35:38
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