Jason Hartman brings on a Florida Local Market Specialist from the Jacksonville and St Augustine. The talk about the two specific markets and availability. The markets offer new construction single family, duplexes, and short-term rentals for purchase that all cash flow.
From the initial market recommendation from yourself matures and it’s a proxy right through to the leasing process with the property manager. Everyone has been just totally professional and the communication is excellent, especially with being such a long distance away.
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it on now. Here’s your host Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:06
Welcome to Episode 1204. And thank you so much for joining me today we have a treat, we are going to do a market profile for two markets, Jacksonville, Florida and St. Augustine, Florida, which happens to be America’s oldest city and the location of something that humanity has been seeking out and searching for forever. Great investment returns. No, not that. The fountain of youth. Yes, the fountain of youth is there. I’ve now been twice to the fountain of youth in St. Augustine. Anyway, we are also going to talk a lot about how to understand and even take a stab. And I’m not saying do it because it’s still guesswork at any level. But to take a shot at understanding market cycles, you know, what are the cycles in cyclical linear and hybrid markets, of course, the cyclical markets as the name would imply have the biggest cycle swings. And we’re going to dive into that a little bit today. So I think you’ll really enjoy this. And let’s go ahead and get to our guest and talk with our local market specialist. Here we go. Hey, I wanted to bring you a kind of a combination interview today of a local market profile of Jacksonville, Florida. We’ve been very active in that market for quite a few years now. And also St. Augustine. I just got back from both of these markets. On the way back from our Savannah venture Alliance mastermind retreat there, I drove back and talked a little a little bit about it before, but I want to take a deeper dive. But the other thing I want to cover today is a an old book about real estate. It’s entitled grow rich with the property cycle and even an older Book than that, entitled 100 years of land values. So how’s that for we’re going to cover some history today and some thinking on property cycles and things like that. Now, all of you regular listeners know that we don’t venture into this area too terribly much. We do a little bit. But our main focus, of course, is on simple cash flow, yield oriented investing, where you don’t try to time the market, you just invest for yield and cash flow. You know, that’s always the safe bet, because I’ve been doing this a long time. And I’ve never met anybody who can accurately predict the cycles without fail, but you can gain some insight into them. And that’s what I want you to do today. So we’re here with our local market specialist for Jacksonville in St. Augustine, Florida. Welcome. How you doing?
Good. Jason. Good to be
Jason Hartman 3:48
back. Good to have you on the show again. So you have spoken at several of our events. You’ve mentioned this book and some of your thinking on it. And when we look at the property cycles, you know, there are basically mean if you want to really simplify, there are three basic cycles, right? The recovery phase, the boom phase, and the slump phase. And you based, interestingly, a large part of your career on this, you were like me a California person, you were living in the beautiful city of Bakersfield. And I’m going to go surfing in Santa Barbara, which wasn’t too terribly far. But you picked up and moved to Florida, because you thought that’s where the opportunity was. Right? Why don’t you tell us about that?
Yeah, well, we were very active in the Bakersfield market for a number of years. But then by the early 2000s, it had just gotten did not make sense. There were investors coming from Los Angeles and San Francisco paying 70 to $80,000 above appraised value, right with no cash flow. And it just didn’t make sense to me. And I started to think about that playbook that boom slump recovery, and although I didn’t know there was going to be as you say, You can’t really time it. I didn’t know exactly what was facing. But I did think that there was going to be something that was going to need to happen. And sure, sure enough, it did. But I want to I wanted to go to someplace that had stronger fundamentals, and might be in a better position on the property cycle. And from what we saw from all the homework that we did that I know you and I have discussed before, with lots of clients, it was Northeast Florida. And sure enough, it was a very good news, because if we had not decided to sell out and go to Florida from where we were in Bakersfield, that would have been very detrimental at the time of 2008.
Jason Hartman 5:36
So you were basically you correctly interpreted the end of the boom phase in the, you know, the California I mean, you know, it sort of applied to the whole state of California, really, and maybe the whole economy in the world. But, you know, I think it’s fair to say that the broader economy and the real estate market are not the same thing. Exactly. Sometimes. Car sometimes they are but not always. And then of course, As the old saying goes, all real estate is local, all real estate is local. So tell us about you know how this book influenced you? Let’s kind of dive into some of the takeaways from it if you would,
yeah, I actually found the book when I was at a real estate event in New Zealand. Many, many years ago, I combined a surfing trip with a real estate event. And I found this book, I said, this sounds interesting. And when I read it, I couldn’t believe the clarity it brought. And the book was basically a rewrite from this Homer, horrible guy, who I guess was an absolute real estate stud from the 1930s. He actually wrote this system of how to read the real estate market in 1934. Just after the meltdown, yeah, and that boom slope recovery. What he said, Jason is he tied different things that here’s what will be happening with building permits, here’s what will be happening with value and return on investment. Here’s what will be happening with the media and that really fascinated by the media part because he, when 1934 said, during the time with absolute peak when it’s about to go into slump, the media will be saying this by now or lose your chance to ever get in double digit appreciation, no end in
Jason Hartman 7:18
sight. In other words, what you’re saying is that you can tell, at least in this author’s opinion, the end of a boom cycle, by the way, the media is promoting real estate as an investment. And they’re using basically scare tactics, scarcity, fear, etc, right?
Yes. So they are telling and they were saying run to the market run to the market. This was in, let’s say, 2005, six and seven run to the market, no end in sight, or at least five and six and this was the absolute peak. Now, fast forward two years or three years like the end of a week when there was end of a week beginning of 2009 incredible opportunity. I mean, as Warren Buffett talks about true intrinsic value, you’re buying below replacement costs from, like 1978. In most areas like good areas like Jacksonville. Now, what was the media saying at that time, the media was saying, real estate is dead. It’s never coming back. And they would have horror story after horror story after horror story. Right, right. And being able to read that book years before all this happened, Jason gave me almost like a wider vision, a bigger windshield, where like you said, You can’t predict the exact moments but it gives some really serious clues. And I remember in 2009 will be geared up starting to buy a lot of property, which was kind of scary. I really went back to this and said, okay, Homer was saying this right after the Great Depression. Go vote Homer in 1930s.
Jason Hartman 8:47
Yeah, you know, hey, listeners, many people think that the first real estate guru was a guy named and I’ll tell you, I kinda think there’s was a guy named Bill Nick percenter William Nickerson and he wrote a very famous book. I don’t know, I want to say in the 60s maybe. And it was about, you know, how I turned $1,000 into a million dollars part time and real estate investing, right? Or something like that. And that and you know, he’s got a bunch of books. And it’s interesting, because I’ve read them. And he talks about, like, you listening to him talk about, and this house cost, wait for it. $7,000 and you just think, how could people have ever thought back then, that real estate was too expensive, you know, looking in the rearview mirror, it’s like, everything’s the most incredible deal ever. But, you know, it’s all relative, right? I gotta say, let me just play devil’s advocate with you for a moment. You know, what you just pointed out is typical contrarian investing, I mean, some people listening or, you know, that are sort of into the stock market in the financial markets in general or just gonna say, well, that’s just contrarian investing. Big Do you know there’s lots of people that say be a contrarian? Is there a distinction or difference?
I think that there is a distinction to it because it is contrary and invest. But how many people actually listen to this? In fact, so many people from what I saw in 2009, and said, Well, I’m gonna stay on the sidelines more, I’m gonna let this happen more like you said the timing. And they just weren’t willing to step in. And then even as constrained invest in two is saying that, okay, the meltdowns been done for 10 years now, just about 10 years. But where are we in the cycle? And can train investing is when you can still find good deals with the strong return on investment in areas poised for growth, you are kind of beating the contrary, because now it’s a lot safer for people to get into real estate, as they would think from the scare tactics now. So I think that does help kind of bridge that timeline to give you more advantage that makes
Jason Hartman 11:00
Okay, okay, good. So other takeaways. And you know, by the way, the other book, you know, I want to say we’ve had the author on the show, but I can’t remember, you know, 5000 interviews, he just can’t remember anymore. But prosperity in the age of decline, which is not about real estate, but there’s a section about real estate in there. And I’m pretty sure they’ve been on the show before. But if you want to overlap on these books, feel free to the best
thing I learned from prosperity in the age of decline was these guys and I read it in 2015. When it came out, they said there was going to be a nice run in certain markets. And they basically described a market like Jacksonville, and they said there is going to be a nice increase in property. For the next three years around 2019. There’s going to be a teetering here, where there’s a little bit unsureness not a dip by any means, but just like a flat moon, and then they said towards the end of that you’re going into the late 2020s, they think there’s going to be more substantial appreciation. And then said, by 2030, there could be a very large correction.
Jason Hartman 12:03
So that’s a ways away, don’t worry too much about 2030. Yet you got a lot of time to buy and sell and trade before that.
Exactly. And that and that was encouraging for me, Jason. But the thing that was interesting is I saw that kind of teetering occur this year. But I also saw this statistical study run ups in Jacksonville here. And I said, Man, these guys were onto something. So I don’t understand how to do all the research. But I always try to find the people that I’ve seen to have good track records with it. And those guys, that’s why I got that book on that. And that gave me the courage again, where are we at? How can I keep investing and have the ability to keep moving forward without getting fearful or too greedy? Of course,
Jason Hartman 12:42
right, right. You know, one of the things that I think would be worth talking about is, most people would say that, well, you know, we’re either at or even past the boom phase now. Now remember, though, before you start thinking that Make sure you segment the property market between linear cyclical and hybrid. And of course, the cyclical high end markets. They are past the boom phase. They’re in decline now. And we’ve definitely seen that and we’re continuing to see it. I mean, you look at what’s going on in Los Angeles in New York City, and it’s not looking good. Okay. You know, things are definitely overvalued in those markets, and they needed a correction, no question about it. You know, I’ve been saying that for a couple of years. So that’s fine. But in the linear markets, like a Jacksonville for example, does it even matter?
One thing that you need to headline is Jacksonville is still below peak prices. And you know, peak pricing means basically what was stuff selling for in 2005. Right, and a lot of Jacksonville is still below peak price. And like you said, what you always look for steady, more predictable markets and cash flow, and which Jacksonville has always been a do one or the other. coastal cities I was able to find that had this ability. And so like you said, I think it doesn’t matter as much, especially what drives the market, as you know, and they talked about that in the property cycles are those five factors population growth, economic growth, affordability, desirability and healthy supply. And today it in Jacksonville is you know, with all the awards, it’s getting in all the rankings. With it being such an affordable market in the affordability index here is phenomenal, especially for coastal city, coupled with the growth population, not only from the job sources that are here, but also a lot of younger retirees are coming, bringing a lot of baby boomers money. So that’s why we went into the new construction model, because there’s for housing, and I think with us again, I love that Buffett saying intrinsic value building and a really good price per square foot is
Jason Hartman 14:52
the word then you’re when you’re talking about the Warren Buffett Yes, sir.
Yeah, yeah, interest intrinsic values and I don’t think it matters as much Jason like you said, if you’re in a more linear market where there’s still return on investment, if you’re buying strictly on cash flow, you’re going to lose $10,000 a month to try to grow 200 grand a year. I don’t think that’s a good plan. But for our market where you can still get a steady cash flow on a new construction property, and there is statistical growth, and not through crazy speculation, but based on just where we’re at and the things that are happening. I think it’s a very, very positive thing. Not only be below peak pricing for this to be happening at the same time.
Jason Hartman 15:34
Yeah, well, so now that I am a Florida resident for the past year. One of the interesting things that I think is very positive about Jacksonville I mean, St. Augustine is just charming. I love St. Augustine, where you live and you know, you’ve got you’ve had many of our clients have purchased some of the short term rental properties there. And that’s just a charming area. I mean, that’s as my mom likes to say. It’s dripping with atmosphere. You know, it’s just a charming place. I love St. Augustine. I’m a huge fan. You know, in Jackson goes got some great economic factors, you know, it’s not like a super pretty city or anything but it’s great for investment. And correct me if I’m wrong maybe I missed something. But it wouldn’t be like, you know, some flagship city that I think, Oh, I got to live in Jacksonville, but good city to invest in no question. And the great thing about it is look at so many people want to move to Florida. It’s almost a cliche, and it’s been like that for decades, right? I mean, there were Seinfeld episodes about it. People didn’t come into Florida forever for retirement, and so on and so forth. And, you know, now that I’m a Florida resident, one of the things I don’t like about it is you know, the heat, you know, combined heat and humidity, it’s not ideal. Okay, but the nice thing is up in Jacksonville, it’s quite a bit cooler, you know, so you have that benefit of having the fantastic Florida business climate, fantastic asset protection, climate fantastic tax, you know, just no state income taxes. And it’s a place that retiring baby boomers at a rate of, you know, millions every year want to retire too. So it’s got some really good benefits. And you don’t have you know, it’s got some of the better features of Florida. I’ll put it that way. Oh, for sure.
Yeah, we’re we’re a little bit different than like South Florida, what I like to is our taxes and insurance are much lower, and a lot of that has to do with the hurricane risk factor. You know, the insurance companies go into risk assessment, and we are in the lowest hurricane risk area in the state. So it’s for a couple of reasons. We’re an indentation you know, hurricanes are attracted and landmasses that stick out in the ocean. That’s why the Carolinas like the Outer Banks, which I love, but it’s still very high hurricane risk and in Miami are the keys are like antennas. Also the Gulf Stream, the Gulf streams, that warm water that goes All the way up north through the ocean, you know, when you’re in Miami are only about two and a half miles off of the Gulf Stream when you’re in Jacksonville, you’re 60 miles off. So these strategic positions have been good for hurricane risk assessment, which has been great because we’ve all of our projects like the last one that went through close, we had no damage, which was a very good proving ground for us. But with that, we also have, like you said, a little bit cooler weather where I think Miami normally runs about 10 to 12 degrees hotter on average, and
Jason Hartman 18:32
that’s huge. That’s so significant. I mean, it makes all the difference. It really makes all the difference because I know for myself, I do not want to live in a cold place. Just not a fan of you know, freezing in either. And you know, honestly California where I’m from it, you know, every time I go back there, I think it’s too cold here. Maybe I’m just getting old and I’m getting too sensitive, but you know, my girlfriend still lives in California and she thinks it’s too cold. It really is, you know, really advised. Californians to revisit their thinking on the weather and, and Hollywood publicity. It’s really not as great as many people think it is. So, interesting point there. But okay, we can offer three types of property through our network in the Jacksonville and St. Augustine areas. They’re, you know, they’re not too terribly far apart, short term rental properties and two types of long term rental properties, single family homes and duplexes. Tell us about these three different property types.
Yeah, so uh, well, we went to the new construction model about five years ago. I’m like a recovering rehabber. Again, full time real estate for 21 years and 16 years in just the changing in the reo market, what was available the needs of the market. I went into new construction, which was its own journey, but it’s been a very wise journey. At this point. I can look back and see. So we only do new construction property this time because we can give we have more clarity, we can give better warranty. We can lower maintenance repairs make management easier for everyone involved. So we do the short term rentals in the St. Augustine area right where I live, Jason went by a couple of them. I actually I live in a house and right next door, I have a short term rental. So I’ve just always been having them as part of my portfolio. And when we had the option to get some lots with a building partner of mine on the barrier island, we took advantage of that. These are areas where St. Augustine has a very long market for short term rentals. You know, where I grew up in the northeast, it was normally a three month short term rental market St. Augustine has an eight nine months See, which is very, very lucrative for going from that monthly rent to that weekly rent. So we build new construction properties normally looking around between 400 and 500,000. You know, nice with a pool, highly desirable areas, barrier island, walk a few doors down to the beach or a few doors down to the intercoastal. That’s our first set and then our Britain But our main focus our single families and small plexus, again, we work only in new construction now because we found that it just gets the best results and long term results that people are really looking for. And, and again, I’ve done both and owned both of these properties, but seeing the results, that’s why I want to do new construction, the single family homes, Jason, we stick around 160 to 190,000 because the big builders are building stuff for the most part 240,000 and above, they need to make bigger spreads than we do since we’re a small building operation. So we’re able to cater to this area of the market that people really want. That’s why we stick to these simple bread and butter areas. I call them a properties in B areas since their new construction. They’re still averaging not quite the 1% rent but again the maintenance repairs is so much lower and the occupancy rate is so much better. We’re seeming to help inch those returns up and we do that both with single family homes price to Between, on average between the 160s and 190s. And then for the small Plexus duplexes and even some quads once in a while, because some of the investors as you know, want to have a little higher yield. So these will help up the cash on cash return. And also with the population influx going, we’ve been very welcomed by the different building departments to start building these because they’re in great need
Jason Hartman 22:22
of them. Okay, so tell us about the single family homes for example, you said 160s to 190s, I believe, what’s the rent range on those properties? And, you know, square footage, and warranty information? I mean, you know, people are getting a brand new house. So, investors love to start with a clean slate and a brand new house, but what else would they know?
Yeah, so, good question. So we’re looking at houses between you know, just about 1300 square feet to 1700 square feet. rents are about the same about 1300 dollars a month to about 1700 dollars a month. We have it to 10 warrantee so what that basically means Jason is and you can get a further breakdown, obviously is two years on the small stuff 10 years on the big structural stuff. You know, most the time when when I did the normal just fix up an old rehab property to get a one year warranty, we’re able to extend the warranties a lot easier with the new construction, a new construction, we also learned with our model, we try to give instant upgrades meaning what are the upgrades that people walk in and say, This is what we want? Oh, this is what we like. And so all of our houses always come with wood plank flooring, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a fancier tile designed master bath. When we started to interview, it seemed like usually the decision maker which was normally the lady in in the family would walk in, those are the things she liked. So we’ve been catering to those in all of our new construction. And it seems to be helping with not only desire abilities, but with values can longer term occupancy.
Jason Hartman 23:55
Okay, good. So who’s the target tenant there in the employment centers? Like where does that tenant kind of work? Usually
I’ll Jacksonville is such a diverse economy people first assets are the baby boomers moving into your houses. I say no, they’re moving into some of our duplexes. But what they are moving into our houses are normally young families that the baby boomers are helping support because they’re bringing so much jobs are soon. As you know, Jason, we have 11 hospitals here including the Mayo Clinic. We have on nine universities, we have the port industry, which is very replaceable income, billion dollar industry right there. The shipping and logistics is huge here on land as well. It’s the only place where I 95 and I tend intersect. So we have CS xx, the large railroad company and number of trucking businesses, fidelity National Financial actually moved here the same year I moved here from California. So there’s a very diverse economy, plus, obviously the standard 20,000 military jobs, which is nice. So our people are normally I would say solid, middle class replaceable income, meaning they’re not necessarily the vice president of the company, but they’re the type that if they did lose their job, they could replace it a lot easier than the vice president of a company. That makes sense. Right,
Jason Hartman 25:08
right. Yeah, that’s good. No, Jacksonville really is a powerhouse on a lot of those economic fronts. Very good. Okay. What about the duplexes?
Yeah, the duplexes are again, very much modeled at the single family home so you were just sitting some single family homes with this last week.
Jason Hartman 25:23
We model those very similar look playing pain that was this week, by the way, just so you know.
I say last week, Yes,
Jason Hartman 25:30
you did. That was that was earlier this week. It’s still the same week.
Jason Hartman 25:35
Yeah, I bet it has
deployed and it’s um,
yeah, so we model them just like that. Just like the ones here in the wooden plank flooring, the stainless steel appliances, the granite countertops, the nicer master bath, shower, the tile showers, the duplexes are going to deal with a little bit higher, you’re looking in the high to hundreds, and we’re looking just about the almost the 1% rule to get that if you’re up to you’re almost probably renting them for about 2620 $700 a month. So the numbers are very strong on the return on investment there, especially with the new construction. Again, you know, the big builders don’t waste their time, they don’t want to build a few duplexes or quads. That’s just not in their wheelhouse. So the fact that we’ve been able to do this and there’s a need for them, investors love them. It’s been a great team effort between me and you, frankly, Jason, what we’re doing, he produces because some people say, hey, I want to be in a growth market, but I want the cash flow to be a little higher. And the only way that we know how to do that is for duplexes or possibly short term rentals. Okay, so that’s a good point. So
Jason Hartman 26:37
that kind of goes back to what we were talking about earlier. You know, this idea of predicting the property cycles and does it even matter, you know, when you’ve got a cash flow market when you’ve got a good yield on your property, of course, everybody likes appreciation, but look at that as the bonus, that’s the icing on the cake. The core of the investment works with healthy appreciation. Okay? And that’s that’s the beauty of it. You don’t have to be good at timing the market to make money and get a good return. But with a short term rental, St. Augustine properties you have that does offer you the opportunity to get a little bit more in that appreciation, growth type market and still get good cash flow, right?
Yes, exactly. I mean, the difference between my paradigm of monthly rent versus weekly rent has totally changed where I used to say, in fact, remember when you and I were brainstorming this, I said, I used to think it was absolutely impossible to cash flow million dollar property. And I’ve actually seen now that you can actually cash flow million dollar property if it’s a short term rental in a longer season. So it’s been a big awakening for me. But yeah, the short term rentals puts you an area that’s you know, I’m talking very desirable a few steps from the beach, Bear Island close to like a, you know, an A plus, plus town like St. Augustine, and yet it does allow you to enjoy With that growth and what we’re trying to do to get to simplify that, though, is to go to new construction. being built to today’s standards. Yeah, yeah. So that’s the
Jason Hartman 28:08
best thing. And we looked at your short term rental properties there. We looked at a really expensive one, two that you have and, and then some entry level short term rental properties. Now the thing I’ve said it before, folks, but everybody listening and maybe this is just my super pessimism. I don’t know I you know, I just want to be cautious because in in a few years, I don’t want to hear any complaining. Okay, so, I’m telling you now, okay, you heard me say this. I am a little bit concerned that the short term rental market is over supplied. I have no data on this just my impressions. Okay. Because a lot of people have gotten into the short term rental business. And hotels are still building I just yesterday interviewed, I think a vice president for Marriott homes and villas maryada International homes and villas. You know, there, of course, getting into the short term rental market on a sort of an institutional basis, you know, everybody sees this, this is a bit of a gold rush. So, all I’m saying is, I think it’s great. I just want you to look at the performer that you get, and then I want you to, to reduce it by 20 or 30%. If you can still be happy with getting 20 or 30%, less than whatever that performance says, if we hit a recession, and there’s less travel and there’s, you know, still a large supply of short term rental properties on the market. Great. And I think it’s it still works pretty darn well. If it goes the other way and I’m wrong and say that never happens. And things just keep on booming I heck this Trump boom has lasted quite a bit longer than anybody thought, then hey, you’re gonna be in for some nice appreciation and some excellent cash flow on the way. So your upside is probably quite a bit greater than your downside. Yes, I agree. Something to think about, okay. And the other advice is to simply balance out your portfolio. Don’t be all in on either one, you know, have some good long term rentals that are the good stable bread and butter stuff. And then get a few of the short term rentals too. And, and you can play both games.
Oh, yeah. And I would say, Jason, I’m an 8020. I still am a long term renter investor. 80% of my own personal portfolio is that in about 20% of short term rentals, I don’t know if that gives you clarity, but I’m at the at 20. Definitely 80% in the bread and butter sticks and brick stuff I’ve always done for 20 years and now the vacation rentals have about 20% of my portfolio.
Jason Hartman 30:39
Yeah, I think that’s pretty good. So you’re going to participate either way it goes and that’s good to hear. Um, let’s wrap it up. Any any other thoughts you want to share?
No, I think that you’re right. I think the worst thing when people are like, what’s the worst thing you’ve ever done? I said the worst thing I’ve ever done is not taking action at the right time is getting over analyzed over analysis paralysis. I think that getting clear on the overall objectives and pulling the trigger is the best thing I’ve ever done. People say what’s the best advice is say, just get educated and to a point and then pull the trigger, because you have to have dogs on the track to start actually running the race, if you know what I mean. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 31:17
good advice. Good advice. Okay. Thanks, folks. You can find these properties at Jason Hartman, calm in the property section. That’s Jason Hartman calm and click on Properties. For more information, reach out to us and, and connect with an investment counselor for a consultation. By the way, in area agnostic consultation, we are not attached to any one area. We have markets all over the US and that we like so you can hear more about these markets and other markets as well can do that through our investment counselors. And hey, thanks for joining us and happy investing to you and all our listeners.
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