Jason starts the show with a discussion and tribute to Jack Boyle a champion of investing. He goes into life lessons on how we should question others’ advice and be sure it’s for our best. In the second segment of the show, Jason brings on economist Harry Dent who gives us an optimistic prediction for the up economy. He talks about demographics and issues in China and other Asian countries.
communication has been just fantastic. And even after leasing a property Platinum properties are kept in contracts to check everything’s okay.
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it. And now here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:00
Welcome to Episode 1115 1100 and 15. Thank you so much for joining me today. This is your host, Jason Hartman. You know, I don’t think I’ve had a chance to talk about it yet. But you know, I’m definitely not a fan of Wall Street. And one person who really wasn’t a fan of wall street but was a wall street Insider, or you might argue, recently passed away and I think I mentioned it last week. But of course, you probably know I’m talking about the great jack Bogle. Now, jack Bogle, I remember studying his work a long time ago, his philosophies about investing and his philosophies about Wall Street, which, you know, he was very unliked on Wall Street. He was not a popular guy, very much disliked, and he, of course, is the founder of Vanguard, and he was the person who kind of democratize Investing on Wall Street. So that the little guy, the individual investor could buy an s&p index fund and he he talked about how mutual funds were a scam and the financial services industry was just ripping people off. And, you know, they’re still doing it. But he was really a great person. It’s funny, Jim Cramer was talking about how he was so disliked, and all these people just kind of like with george bush’s recent passing, right, of course, the elder George Bush, I’m talking about, you know, all these people who were his enemies are saying nice things about him, you know, as he’s passed on, but he said that the mutual fund industry was, you know, engaging and larceny. Basically, just ripping people off. And he just said what he thought, and I thought that was great. And, you know, you’ve probably noticed that I do that too. Sometimes to my own detriment. But I really believe in the cause, right? The cause of being in control of your financial future, being in control of your investments, and not succumbing to the scam artists that are promoting these various funds, these pooled money investments, Wall Street investments, giving that control back to the individual investor, but making it easier for them with our support network with our education, our software, you know, going up against property managers who are not doing the right thing going up against sellers who are not doing the right thing. I mean, you’ve got to do it. Someone has got to take the bull by the horns and endure some personal cost, right, some personal loss, go against their own interests at times to actually make a difference in the world. One of my friends, she dubbed me some Several months ago, and I thought it was pretty good. I said, I’ll take that moniker. She said, Jason, you’re like the corporate version of Batman. You know, and I thought, I’ll take it. I like that. And I will, I will fight for people. I will fight for what’s right. And I will continue to do that. You know, if I have to do that, through law in the public interest and activism, I will do that. If I do it on the air, I’m going to do that because I just really believe you gotta just do what’s right. And you got to make a difference, rather than selfishly saying, I don’t want to get involved, you know, wow, it’s too much trouble. It disturbs my peace of mind. Right? Well, you know, I’m just not that kind of person. So what disturbs my peace of mind is people being able to get away with hurting other people. Really, they’re bullies. You know, these people are just bullies, right? They’re just rolling over people. ripping them off taking their money, their hard earned life savings. And that is completely unacceptable to me. So jack Bogle, I started reading one of his books, it’s really good. I want to recommend it to you. It’s called the battle for the soul of capitalism. Really just an excellent work. I’m really enjoying it. I’m maybe about a third of the way through now. Just Can’t wait to dive into it more. Again. Obviously, I think Wall Street has the modern version of organized crime. I’m not a fan of Wall Street. But I am a fan of the late jack Bogle, his style and his belief system, that things should be democratized. And that the little guy, the middle class person should have access to things without these giant fees. They should have access to the same things that big institutional investors have access to. And that’s what we’re doing here on the show. We are bringing that on, we’re bringing it to you or our listeners and our followers. So thank you for that. It’s interesting also, because I happen to be at a conference right now in Dallas, I’m at the capitalism conference that my friend runs. I spoke yesterday on a panel and one of the other, I’m not going to say this is scammy. But one of the other things I notice from some speakers or, you know, financial consultants when they, especially when they get up there in front of an audience on an individual meeting, and this isn’t a scam, per se, right, it what they’re saying is true. The question is, does it matter? Right, and, and here’s an example of what I’m talking about. There was a talk about accelerated depreciation opportunities on real estate. And that basically comes through doing cost segregation or cost sake, as they might say, you know, I did this on permanent building. I used to own this Was 125 unit apartment complex that I owned with one of our clients. And I’ve talked about it on the show many times over the years. We sold that a few years ago and exchange into a couple of other properties on a beautiful 1031 tax deferred exchange. We did this cost segregation analysis, and it was very much worth it. It was about 20. I don’t know it’s like 22 or $28,000 in CPA fees, but the tax savings was well worth it. And this isn’t done very much on smaller residential properties, because, you know, the cost of it is fairly high. And it wouldn’t be that high on a on a small single family home. In fact, one of our venture Alliance members, Jeff, who you’ve heard on the show before, he’s a, he and Shannon are clients of ours. They purchased many, many, many properties through our network. He’s in the venture lions mastermind group with us. He is working on a product that would make this accessible and make it cost effective for single family home investors. So it’s something that can be done. The thing is, though, when someone gets up in front of an audience and promotes this thing, it sort of makes them sound bright. It makes them sound like they’ve got this great secret that can help you. And that’s true, right? It is a sophisticated thing to do. And it is a good opportunity. There’s no question about that. But the actual effect at the end of the day versus some of the macro stuff that I talked about is like, nipping at the heels, you know, it’s nipping at the margins. It’s not that big a deal, right. But they make it sound like a big deal. Like, oh, yeah, you’ll definitely want to work with me and be my customer and, you know, invest in all my other lame investments, because this was a cool idea. But the effect of that cool idea, even though it’s absolutely true, and it’s valid, is not super significant, right? It’s not worth putting your money in a bunch of mutual funds, you know, with their firm, just because they’ve got this one idea about your real estate holdings. So I just want you to be on guard for that there are so many ways that people, scam people and mislead people. And it’s just truly mind boggling how creative it is. And I was thinking of that when I was, you know, I was watching this presentation and it just kind of, I thought, you know, I wanted to, I wanted to yell out, okay, true, but what’s the significance, you know, if you won’t compensate for all the other crap that’s being promoted? Right, that that’s, I guess my point, it won’t compensate for that. But anyway, we will talk about that how to end other things, and we might have a presentation on that, by the way at our upcoming meet the Masters event in Newport Beach, California, March 23, and 2014. hope you’ll join us for that. Many of you have already purchased tickets. You can do that at j From hartman.com slash masters, and today, we’re going to have a really good talk with Harry dent. Now, I think Harry dent spent on the show maybe seven or eight times before and he’s back. And I know what some people are thinking, Well, here are You damned has made a lot of predictions that just didn’t come true. And you’re right. But he’s also made a lot of predictions that actually came true. And one that I pointed out to him, that is coming true. Right now at this very moment. Although, you know, several years late from when he predicted it is very much coming true and very much for the reasons that he predicted it back in the mid 90s. So he predicted this a long time ago, and it’s an interesting trend, so you’ll hear about that. It has to do with mcmansions mcmansions not McDonald’s, but mcmansions. So you’ll hear that in a moment but Harry dome was is surprisingly bullish to about a couple of things. I Didn’t expect that during this interview, I think you’ll find this discussion to be very interesting. If you want to see the video version of it, you can see it on our YouTube channel as well. I’ve mentioned to you that we’ve launched a new YouTube channel and hired a good consultant who’s producing some great videos for our YouTube channel. So check that out. Check that out, for sure. And be sure to subscribe there. And I guess without further ado, let’s get to Harry dent returning to the show today. Here we go.
Jason Hartman 11:30
Let’s break this down and look at some of the strengths of income property. As an asset class, I found that this event is really helpful because I am totally a newbie to real estate investment. And so I picked up so much information. One of the great things about it is it’s so fragmented, right? embrace the fragmentation. We’ve actually been learning a lot about the tax benefits to real estate and a lot of I’ve been investing Actually well over 10 years now, and I learned a lot of new things today. The other advantage of this weekend is networking, meeting new property managers, meeting new area specialists and then seeing the product they have to offer that changes here by you. Register today at Jason Hartman, calm forward slash masters. It’s my pleasure to welcome back a returning guest and that is Mr. Harry dent. Of course, you’ve probably been following his work for many decades, as have I. He is back on the show. His latest book is entitled zero hour and he’s got many other great books before that. And he’s coming to us today from Puerto Rico. Harry, how are you? Good, good, Jason. Good. Good. It’s good to have you back on the show. Would it be fair to say that you’re you’re pretty optimistic right now, right? Not completely, but maybe more so than usual. I don’t know. What do you think?
Harry Dent 12:49
Yeah, I am more than usual. I mean, we’ve been calling this a bubble for a long time. It’s gonna burst it is started slowly in real estate. It is not in stocks yet. And a lot of people thinking oh, well maybe the peak last year was a peak. And you know what, I’ve got an easy indicator, the first crash and a stock bubble like this should be 40% in the first two and a half months, no mercy. So I’m saying that it looks like this is a correction and stocks stock should have another bubble probably going to last most of 2019. That gives the economy some more breathing room, on the other hand is you know, real estate is starting to top out in high end markets. In the 2007 bubble burst and the Great Recession, real estate was our best leading indicator because it started to slow in 2006 ahead of the stock market.
Jason Hartman 13:39
When the economy is going into recession. Is it always led by real estate as real estate always slow first, is that leading indicator you mentioned or is that just last time and maybe this time to
Harry Dent 13:53
typically it doesn’t stocks usually slope first, but we have a stock market. It’s unusual. It’s being driven last largely by corporations take back their own stock. Here’s the global reality. governments around the world, us and almost everybody, they’re buying their own. They’re issuing record debt like the US, we got 22 trillion now 1.2 trillion a year, actually more than that with the off balance sheet, but whatever, that and they’re buying their own bonds to push interest rates down and make that
Harry Dent 14:23
low and pay the interest that low rent.
Jason Hartman 14:26
Yeah. So this is I don’t know that you would call this a Ponzi scheme. It’s not exactly that. But it is a scheme for sure. Because what they’re doing is they’re creating this artificial market, governments do it with their treasury bonds. companies are doing it with their stock buybacks. unpack that a little more for us. And let’s talk about the significance of that.
Harry Dent 14:47
Yeah, and the treasury bonds are the key people don’t realize Federal Reserve. They can set short term rates but long term rates they can only impact as my buying their own bonds and push down the rates and up the price. When they do that it lowers the cost of borrowing for companies that raises their profit. But it also means they can borrow cheap with their corporate bonds and buy back their own stocks and leverage their earnings per share. So this stock market is mostly about leveraging earnings per share. buying back stocks is less about the economy being stronger than ever is trumpets is not stronger than ever. We’ve averaged a little over 2% growth since 2009. Most recoveries are 4% Plus, and the typical recovery would see stocks be ahead of the economy market, but because of this artificial buying, stocks may be the latest and I say only in recent years. I 2006 was the first time I saw that real estate prices peak activity peaked in late 2005. Prices peaked in early 2006. We call that our newsletter. estate started to go down slowly while stocks are still going up. The economy is still booming, so real estate wasn’t going down to The economy’s bad is going down the bad
Jason Hartman 16:01
loans subprime. Right, right. As far as the real estate goes, we really do not have that this time. I mean, I do not. I see there are tiny little signs of imprudent lending, but there are very few and far between, right?
Harry Dent 16:16
Yes, that is not the problem now is just as usual. Prices are getting overextended, they’re higher and higher. I mean, San Francisco where I used to live is just crazy. I just showed in my newsletter that for a starter home buyer, not not isolate them, but that’s a whole different set. average price of a starter home in San Francisco is 895,000. The incomes 34,500. That’s 25 times their earnings. Now, you know if there ever was an example of a banana republic, it has got to be San Francisco. You got homeless BC. It’s terrible. People are having to move out. I just met a guy in Puerto Rico that’s moving down here software designer, because he can’t afford to live here. He’s a software design, right?
Harry Dent 17:02
He can’t afford to live in San Francisco.
Jason Hartman 17:04
And I would say, you know, on that since we’re talking about the San Francisco market just for a little tangent here, I would say that that is very, very connected to the stock market. And the VC market of course, right. When that evaporates, boy, that is just going to I mean, that is built on a house of cards, right?
Harry Dent 17:22
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that’s right. They’re the Center for the whole tech bubble. The tech stocks are leading this bubble just like they did the one in the 90s. And people are moving into these headquarters. People in San Francisco, hate Google hate big tech companies, they them is bidding up prices and driving them out of their city. Same reason people in Vancouver hate Chinese because they’re the one drives with their foreign buyers. So but that that is the key thing, Jason, this top is being started as we’ve been predicting, and it’s also happening in calphalon, Sydney and Melbourne, Australia, right. You got the hot And is cracking first. And it’s because the prices are just so extreme and they get bid up the most by foreign buyers there. And the fact that upscale households are doing so much better than Homer Simpson. It’s breaking at the high end and it’s this time it’s going to filter down to the low end last time it was subprime mortgages faltering, and then it built up to the high end. So the high end is where this is starting. And again, I was just talking with another newsletter writer who just moved to Puerto Rico. He’s trying to sell his Dallas place. Why downtown upscale condo? Get a good bid, he may just have to sell it for what he doesn’t want to write your two ago that would have been essential to sell that.
Jason Hartman 18:40
Yeah, yeah. Know that the market has. Definitely
Harry Dent 18:43
Miami and San Francisco, Dallas. Uh huh.
Jason Hartman 18:46
Yeah, no, absolutely. No, no. The market has definitely cooled and it is continuing to cool. One of our celebrity clients just sent me a Zillow listing the other night about a $30 million home and Los Angeles. He says this is just beyond ridiculous here. It is just beyond ridiculous. And I said it’s changing, though. The buyers are rejecting those prices and homes are sitting on the market. And even in places you know, south of La like Orange County, my old hometown, we’re seeing stuff that’s you know, seven 800,000 softening. Is this going to trickle down? See I wonder if the just the lower end of the market, the stuff we like in Memphis, Indianapolis, these boring markets Little Rock, Atlanta, etc. in Atlanta is not that boring, but the rest of them are, you know, when you’re looking at hundred and $50,000 houses only because the builders this time around coming out of the Great Recession. They just didn’t build for that market at all. There’s just been no supply added. And when I say no supply, of course, it’s a figure of speech, but I know it’s trickling down and I think that will continue but how far can it trickle down?
Harry Dent 19:57
It will trickle down but but I always say The greater the bubble, the greater the birds and the greatest bubbles happen in the coastal cities. But the greatest bubbles happen in the upscale markets. And it does trickle down, but the lower end markets will hold up better and there are plenty of market. Jason, as you already know, although the whole middle of the country is not really bubbling. I mean, oh, I have this so many places where rent first of all rentals are more favorite because a lot of people are struggling economically they’re in in places that are losing jobs. These places didn’t bubble up so much. So there are places where you can find real estate affordably rented out for positive cash flow and leverage that you just can’t do that in the coastal. You can’t do that. In South Beach, Miami. You can’t do that in San Francisco or Seattle or Manhattan or Sydney and Melbourne or Singapore. So that’s the key. The smart people are buying real estate. In affordable areas where you can rent out the key sign it you can rent it out at positive cash flow. You’re not that overvalued and you can make money there try to rent out a downtown condo in San Francisco. Good luck. Yeah. Only pop.
Jason Hartman 21:10
Yeah, yeah, I’m not even not even close. And we should mention, you mentioned Puerto Rico a few times. I just wanted to mention for the listeners who don’t know, when we’ve done entire episodes on this, Puerto Rico has become a tax haven. And interestingly, you did not move there for that reason, but it sort of happened to you afterwards. And many of my friends have moved down there, you know, very well to do people. Last time I was there just about six, eight months ago, maybe, you know, I met hedge fund managers at the pool. It’s a resort and you know, they had moved there. And it’s just kind of, it’s interesting what’s going on down there. It’s a rather small number, though, in the aggregate, but you’re definitely seeing a trend, right?
Harry Dent 21:50
small number, but there are people that come here and spend a lot of money on real estate.
Jason Hartman 21:54
That’s interesting. You say that because the real estate in Puerto Rico is not cheap. That’s pretty Stan I mean that it’s expensive there it’s it’s
Harry Dent 22:02
not it’s not cheap that’s the reason I moved here we were about to move from Tampa which is some you know bubbly but not as much yeah Miami double the bubble we were in Miami for the first bubble thousand dollars a square foot for it and now it’s where but so I men is nicer nicer than anything on the South Beach $500 a square foot one quarter of the price whether I rent or buy that I moved here because I realized I can get a much better condo in Puerto Rico and I’d be closer to finishing my vacation house on this island, which is very hard to do from a distance. So I moved here for that. And then some people here showed me how I could work with their company and get the tax advantages as well. No, this has been a bonanza for me now. Puerto Rico, the condo on it would be considered expensive here and people say that’s a bubble. No Come on me or Manhattan. This is cheap. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 23:01
right, right. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it’s just not super cheap you know it’s it’s not as inexpensive as I thought it would be. And then you look at a place like what is it Toronto that I went to and your your way into 1000 1500 dollars a square foot, but that’s
Harry Dent 23:15
Toronto again, I’m a really nice place. It is cheap compared to the sunlight thing. I’m in the hottest part. condado is like the South Beach of San Juan. Order the prize. That’s a lot cheaper cam.
Jason Hartman 23:30
Yeah. Well, that’s true. That’s true. Fair enough. Okay, so, Harry, you have made so many predictions in your career and your career. When did you write your first book? I first discovered you back in 1995. And I can’t remember that book title off the top of my head but I was just fascinated by your your methodology of economic demographer, so forth. When did you write your first book?
Harry Dent 23:54
Okay, the first book was self published was called our power to predict that was 1989 Wow. Okay, yeah, I best prediction ever that I didn’t get as much credit for I got predict credit for calling a doubt 10,000 by 2000 in the early 90s, when we’re in a recession when people crazy in 1989, I said in the 90s, Japan’s whole economy and bubble was going to collapse and the US and Europe, which would considered sunset economies and would have their best decade ever.
Jason Hartman 24:25
And that was absolutely right.
Harry Dent 24:27
And that was all just demographics.
Jason Hartman 24:31
And was at their peak of their baby boom spending cycle. And the US and Europe were just getting started. And you know, I remember that back in 1989, when everybody or really the late 80s, but going up to 89 when there was this xenophobia going on everybody thought Japan is going to take over the US and and nothing could have been further from the truth and and you have rightfully talked about their demographic disaster. And you know, the conservative commentator who is a very funny guy, Mark Stein. He talks about that, too. I don’t know if you know his work. But he says, he says look in 50 years, Japan, Russia, Western Europe, they basically won’t exist. You can’t have a country without people, and they don’t have people. And now you’ve called that about China. Because China’s one child policy for so many years is it has set up the seeds of absolute disaster coming China’s way, right.
Harry Dent 25:25
And you know, they finally started lightening up on that and people aren’t listening. They’re not doing it. Asians are the worst when Asians people who move to urban areas and get more flow and have less kids because it takes more to raise the natural thing. Asians are even more that way than us and so they have the lowest birth rates in the world. And again, China comes back to Okay, now you can have to well, nobody’s taken him up on that. So they’re the only emerging country where there’s a shortage of females. I mean, there’s a tremendous shortage of females. So even if they wanted to Good luck, finding Thought it was hard for me to find a maid here in the US, but it’s worse there.
Harry Dent 26:03
But there were China’s workforce peaked in 2011. But something more important Jason they’ve been living off of rural people moving to urban areas that I could reach and the government’s have been pushing that too fast. That’s why they have so many empty condos and cities and so they have entire ghost cities. I’m we’ve talked about this on the show. It is mind boggling. And if you go and look on YouTube, just type you know, China ghost city, you’ll see these videos they are they’re spooky. I mean, a high rise after high rise that’s just vacant
Harry Dent 26:34
47% of condos empty even in cities that aren’t go cities real city or something. So this is crazy. But what nobody’s noticed is those urban those rural migrants moving into urban areas. They’re moving back because the price is too high. They’re second class citizens. Their kids can’t go to school. They’re the small the traffic they’re moving back so that urbanization pushes the only thing China has Going forward, the topic for now. So China, I think China is going to be the epicenter of a global real estate crash. And that’s going to eventually back off on high end real estate. So because again, who are the foreign buyers that are most buying Chinese foreign buyers, wealthy Chinese,
Jason Hartman 27:15
Harry Dent 27:16
so when they stop buying, that’s going to be a double whammy to these upscale market like Seattle, Vancouver, the whole West Coast.
Jason Hartman 27:23
Yeah, absolutely. I like to say that, you know, is everybody’s worried about the, you know, they view China to some extent as a threat, right, a threat to the US, you know, and my answer to that, is China some miracle what they’ve accomplished? No question. I don’t want to take that away from them. It really is a total miracle, especially in a country that is technically a communist country. It is a miracle. But China is highly overrated. I mean, if you ask me, I just don’t think when does that demographic time bomb really hit China and their economy is that about 1015 years away or a little further?
Harry Dent 27:59
They’re, it’s already hitting. But it gets worse after 2020 Japan also their baby boom burst and spending. Their millennials have been coming along ahead of us, Japan’s ahead of us 10 to 15 years on this whole generation cycle, their Millennials are going to peak in 2020. That’s just two years away, and turn down in Japan’s gonna get weaker even faster again. So East Asia, China, and all the tiger countries are going to be in a big slow down. I think it’s going to take China 10 years to catch up to capacity, then they can still grow by urbanization, but demographics will work against them forever and all of East Asia, what I think China’s burst is going to do put the world focus on India. So India is going to be the next big infrastructure boom and real estate boom. In the US, you have to look at the areas that are going to do best after a crash and I think he those is still going to be apartment rentals, positive cash flow and it’s going to be a four starter? Yeah,
Jason Hartman 29:01
absolutely. Yeah, I call it necessity housing, you know that necessity housing, it’s always going to be needed. And it’s in especially short supply now, because in the last 10 years, they haven’t built any. There’s almost no construction in a decade in that whole category, that whole product segment in the US,
Harry Dent 29:21
the Home Builders went for the higher end more profitable homes, which demographics would have told you with the wrong place to be anyway. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 29:28
yeah. No, I know. It’s really weird. So in the US, I mean, your real specialty is is demographics and how they impact the economy. And when I first discovered your work in 1995, you talked about you know, baby food and Pampers and, you know, the diapers and, and the Gerber’s baby food and how that, you know, you could just tell that that wave was coming by just simply looking at the birth rate, and then adjusting a certain number of years, right. It’s so obvious, but rising,
Harry Dent 29:54
Lee simply took me a long time to figure it out. But once you figure it out, I take any sector say, okay, when are people gonna spend the most on that lag the birth index for that number, and I’ll tell you what the hottest single sector of the US economy is going to be for decades to come nursing homes and assisted living.
Jason Hartman 30:13
Okay, so I agree with you. However, I just I want to caution listeners on that. Okay. I’ve done a lot of investigation into this. And I believe that that is largely priced in already. Okay. They’ve been built, you know, in the 80s. They were talking about the graying of America
Harry Dent 30:33
and our lady, all women they have they’re just starting to enter and it hasn’t been overbuilt. It’s been declining because there hasn’t been demand for it. The demand just starts on my leg. 2018 2019 goes up for 2016 Oh,
Jason Hartman 30:46
no, I know, the demand is there. I’m just saying there have been suppliers coming to meet that market. I mean, they’re building them everywhere, you know, supply now.
Harry Dent 30:55
Yeah. last long. Right, right.
Jason Hartman 30:58
Yeah. When we look at demographic cohorts Harry and we look at, you know, the baby boomers and then Gen X my generation, and then the millennial Gen Y generation. Finally, and I’m so sick of talking about that about millennials. Sorry, millennials. I’m just sick of it. I’m sick of you guys been talking about you for so long. Now we’re starting to talk about Generation Z. Okay. And what’s interesting is in Japan and China, there’s literally no Generation Z is there to speak of.
Harry Dent 31:29
No. Wow. Thank you. Same with Europe, southern and central Europe, from Germany, all throughout Mediterranean, there is Oh, Echo, boom, there’s no generation well, although so things decline and they continue to decline.
Jason Hartman 31:44
I want to borrow a term from the environmental movement. And here it is. extinction is forever. Better have some kids folks are you’re going extinct because that’s exactly what’s happening with all of the in Russia too. Don’t forget Russia.
Harry Dent 31:57
Well, the you can do like Australia. New Zealand I mean, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, countries like that single they’re not having any more kids they we are they attract high quality immigrants because they have good English speaking universities and that’s what immigrants around the world want. We are now turning away immigrants. Canada is is increasing and immigrants Australia has the highest quantity of immigrants. Canada has the highest quality of education. Those countries are increasing their demographics without having more babies because it’s hard to get urban people to have more babies. They don’t want
Jason Hartman 32:34
Yeah, right. Right. Yeah, that’s it’s really interesting. So talk to us about Gen Z a little bit. Let’s just wrap up with that topic. There’s just not enough talk about Generation Z. What are they like? How big is the cohort? What’s going to be their impact on the real estate market, the economy, etc.
Harry Dent 32:51
Well, I break down the millennials and to play the first phase was born in the 19 the second phase in 2007. Now births have been declining since 2007. I predicted that long before it happened because I knew when the economy started to weaken, people have fewer kids, it’s another factor. So the second way that the millennials we don’t know I mean, they haven’t even really entered the workforce yet. So we just know they’re they’re going to be more a little more like baby boomers more creative, more individualistic. They, while their wealth a little more, the first way the millennials, who are basically buying houses now are more like the Bob Hope generation. So I think their lifestyles are going to be different. The problem is that first way they were born in the 1990 got a lot more of the immigrants backing up that second way is not going to be as strong as I thought it would be. So it’s not going to the first wave of millennials that will peak and starter home buying in the next five years will not be exceeded by this next wave though they’ll be another way but it will not be as strong so so these are the people that I like catching the first wave
Jason Hartman 34:00
Yeah, very interesting. Here we are there any questions? I didn’t ask you anything you just want to share with our audience and then give out your website to,
Harry Dent 34:07
again, there’s always something booming and demographics. You know, so aging baby boomer stuff, vacation homes are still kind of hot, but that won’t be for too much longer. Oh, that’s, that’s another, I registered a domain name. And it’s bnb prophecy.
Jason Hartman 34:24
Because that market is totally over supplied.
Harry Dent 34:28
Yeah. That one, I agree
Harry Dent 34:32
has been oversupply. It really is. The millennials. There’s going to be enough homes for millennials but like say it’s not going to be the right homes in the right places. And that’s where people will do the best there. But there’s always another part of the world and really everything says that Asia outside of China and the tiger countries, it’ll be everything over a Southeast Asia and India so people can be looking in the future. I mean, you can could build parking lots in Mumbai for five decades and never you know never oversupply probably. Yeah, they’re going to be the next China and the demographics are there and hey, Africa has got good demographics but they got horrible economics and politics and stuff. You know, really real estate really does come down to these catching the millennials at this point because the baby boomers except for nursing homes, and that’s a whole different business. And it would really need more like corporate investment to do that. Right. Right. Really the the what are the millennials going to want and they’re going to want affordable starter homes and it’s going to be a good wall that’s another decade out after Yeah,
Jason Hartman 35:39
yeah, very interesting. Very interesting. Harry dent thanks for joining us website HS dent. Not Harry dent
Harry Dent 35:45
calm and we have a free newsletter you can get on to get to know us. All you gotta do is put in your your
Jason Hartman 35:51
email address. Fantastic, Harry dent. Thanks again for joining us. Okay. Thank you so much for listening. Be sure to subscribe so that you don’t miss any episodes. Be sure to check out the show’s specific website and our general website heart and Mediacom for appropriate disclaimers and Terms of Service. Remember that guest opinions are their own. And if you require specific legal or tax advice, or advice and any other specialized area, please consult an appropriate professional. And we also very much appreciate you reviewing the show. Please go to iTunes or Stitcher Radio or whatever platform you’re using and write a review for the show we would very much appreciate that. And be sure to make it official and subscribe so you do not miss any episodes. We look forward to seeing you on the next episode.