Jason Hartman discusses something he has talked about many times today, and that is the value of a dollar. He plays a YouTube clip by the Wall Street Journal on inflation and the Fed. Later on the show, Jason and Investment Counselor Carrie. They talk about a property tour they did with clients in Florida.
thought the event was amazing. I thought that I knew a lot about real estate. But coming to your summer, I realized there’s a lot of things that I don’t know. And one thing that you did besides teach me a lot about real estate is you inspired me to look beyond where I live and to, you know, kind of shrink down the world and make it smaller so that I can invest some places that are further away and get better returns. So I really appreciate that. And I’m excited to be here this weekend. And, again, for me, and from all the people I heard there, thanks for doing these events because they’re great.
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor lender today. belapur and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it. And now here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:24
Welcome to Episode 1299 1299. So we talk a lot about the value of $1 and how that relates to your investment strategy. And of course, income property, the most historically proven asset class in the entire world performs incredibly well, especially in an inflationary environment. And we know from all the prior episodes where we’ve talked about this stuff and at our live conferences when we’ve talked about it, we know That inflation is the best business plan for central banks and governments. We also know that the most powerful entities the human race has ever known our central banks and governments. So why not? As I’ve always said, why not just align our interest with theirs, because they’ve got the power. And instead of trying to buck the system, as much as we might philosophically despise the system, we might think it’s awful and rightfully so. Why not just go with flow, align our interests with theirs, their big interest is in inflationary future. And even if inflation is tame at times, we are long term investors. We are looking at a long game business plan and we know that if we get a mortgage today, it will be three decades before We have to make the last payment on that mortgage. Where else can you do that? Nowhere else on an appreciating asset that historically appreciates better than the inflation rate and the debt gets reduced by inflation. The commodities that are the package commodities making up that asset, are inflation indexed not to just one currency not to just the dollar, because they have real intrinsic value. This is part of what I’ve taught you over the years about what I call the ultimate investing equation, the ultimate investing equation. Well, as we think about this, and how this will impact our future, and the wealth we create over time, through this most historically proven asset class of income property, it’s important to really look at the past and think about how impactful even moderate inflation has been on our purchasing power of both consumer goods. Of course, that’s the way everybody thinks of it, right? Our cost of living the consumer price index, the cost of living, basically the same thing, but also asset inflation. And the cost of being an investor, that’s not factored in to the inflation index, which is an absolute sin. Because if you want to get ahead in life, you’ve got to be an investor, you’ve got to make capital work for you. Now, this is the age old debate that has shaped the planet, the entire human race has been shaped by this age old debate of what is more important. is capital more important, or is labor more important? In other words, if we go to work, and we work, well, nobody really works 40 hours a week, at least not anybody who’s trying to get ahead in life. You know, the average corporate work week is what about 55 hours a week, if we work 55 hours a week and we dedicate our time We trade our time for money. And we work hard. We apply our ingenuity. And we do all the right things. Right. That’s our labor. Right. So how should that be valued? Is that more valuable than capital? Well, the reason the rich get richer is because what do they have? They have more capital than they have labor. Labor is a limited supply. We all only have 24 hours a day. But capital, if we can save to create wealth to invest, then that capital works for us. It’s like our offspring, right? In the old days. And now still in third world or developing countries. People have a lot of children, because children were considered capital. My grandparents were farmers. My mother grew up on a farm in upstate New York on a dirt road. Very, very poor, you know, the middle of five kids. And of course, they had five kids. Well, why wouldn’t you have five kids, those kids are needed to work on the farm. The likelihood is, you know, in the old days or in a developing country, there was a high mortality rate, and some of the kids wouldn’t survive. So to perpetuate the species, you got to have more kids. That’s your capital, the kids. Now in the first world, nobody really thinks of it that way. They just have kids, because they have kids for various reasons, love family, whatever, right? That’s all great. But in the old days, it was capital. And the same is true of marriages. If you study the history of marriage, just look that up. I don’t want to say google it because Google is evil. Okay.
Jason Hartman 6:35
Either good and bad. You know, I don’t I don’t totally hate Google. But in some ways I do. But they do a lot of great stuff, too. So just search it right, the history of marriage, and you come to realize that marriage was just a capital formation tool in the past, it was an investment. It was a business deal. Now everybody expects it to be something so much more and maybe that’s the reason there’s so much disappointment. And the divorce rate is so high because we expect it to be a good business deal, and love and harmony and it’s supposed to, you know, everything’s supposed to be great, right? And that’s just not the way life is right? Life is not a honeymoon, when you come down to it life is really hard work. So when we look at inflation, there’s a lot to dissect a lot to think about. And I want to dive into that for a few minutes. And then we’re going to have one of our investment counselors on the show. Carrie will be here with us. You’ve heard her on the show before. She will be here with us in a few minutes. But let’s go ahead and dive into this question. And I’m going to play a clip from the Wall Street Journal. And the Wall Street Journal has a fantastic YouTube channel, lots of good educational stuff on it. And here is a short clip about inflation, and how low inflation or especially deflation is incredibly disconcerting to central banks, including our central bank, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful one in the world, but every central bank right We know that the business plan they want is an inflationary business plan, because it benefits them in so many ways. Let’s listen in
in 1955, the average price of a movie ticket with 73 cents. Today, it’s about $9. This phenomenon is called inflation, the increase in prices of goods and services across an economy over time. It refers to everything you buy from groceries to doctor’s visits to homes. Inflation is among the most powerful forces in the economy and financial.
Jason Hartman 8:33
And by the way, it doesn’t really refer to buying homes directly. In the consumer price index, they have something called a equivalent rent, okay. And it does refer to that in the CPI but it doesn’t refer to the cost of buying a home directly. Now, indirectly, of course it does, because all those commodities that are inflation indexed are the ingredients to home in the Hartman risk evaluator which I created Why sort of discovered and created it? I did both. After 19 years in this business, it was really new thinking, right? Nobody was teaching that kind of stuff before I was in fact, I wasn’t even teaching it until 19 years into my career when I discovered it. And that Hartman risk evaluator really helps you discern the value of what I call packaged commodities, the ingredients for home
markets, too much or too little can send the economy spiraling. So the inflation rate is a big deal for policymakers, and especially the Fed. This chart shows the inflation rate over the past century. You can see it’s become less volatile in recent decades. The feds long stated goal is to keep inflation at about 2% not too high, not too low,
Jason Hartman 9:49
the Goldilocks zone but
now they’re worried the rate drifted below 2% too often, and they’re rethinking the strategy will print more money. But first, let’s look at what causes in inflation in the first place.
There’s a lot of debate and few certainties when it comes to what causes inflation. But here are some of the bigger theories out there. One is increased demand. Inflation can occur when there’s an increase in demand in goods and services all over the economy, from households to businesses to the government. Many factors can drive up demand, higher incomes, more access to credit, greater government spending, and more. What’s important to know is that when demand grows faster than supply, businesses can raise their prices. This type of inflation may occur in a growing economy. Supply pressures can also drive inflation. When the cost of doing business goes up, companies need to raise prices to protect their profit margins, higher wages, higher land costs and tariffs can all make running a company more expensive and lead to inflation. The Economist Milton Friedman once said that inflation is all And everywhere a monetary phenomenon, he was talking about the Fed. The Fed is a major factor in inflation. it dictates the supply of money in the economy and changes interest rates, which are the cost
Jason Hartman 11:11
of borrowing money. It’s almost ridiculous. And I got to really criticize the video for saying that a moment ago, when they said there’s a lot of debate about this. Milton Friedman is right now Harry dent, you know, he has sort of a different take on it. And it’s interesting. He’s, he’s kind of right to, but largely, it’s Milton Friedman. I mean, they talked about supply demand and cost. And then, you know, they throw in the little terror thing to kind of take a jab at Trump, of course, well, they don’t bother to mention is that, you know, more people will have a job and their wages will be higher, like we talked about on yesterday’s show, but that’s the trade debate. That’s a different discussion to some extent, but they talk about supply and demand. Well, where do you think that comes from folks? It comes from The available amount of money in the system when there’s a lot of money and a lot of credit in the system. There you have the classic thing of more dollars or more yen or euro or Brazilian reality or Mexican peso or Japanese yen or whatever currency you want doesn’t matter. Bitcoin doesn’t matter any currency, right? chasing a limited supply of goods and services. When that happens, while Ah, Abracadabra, you get inflation go. It’s just not that complicated is it? But apparently there’s some debate about it.
By changing interest rates, the Fed can influence how many cars or machines American households and businesses buy and that affects whether prices go up a lot or a little.
When the Fed lower,
Jason Hartman 12:51
so interest rates are simply increase or decrease in the supply of credit. When rates are low, more people Take out credit and credit is a phantom version of money supply, right? It theoretically has to be paid back but not really. And so there’s more money supply when there’s more credit and when credit is cheaper when money is cheaper because money has a cost to it. It’s called the interest rate. Right. That’s the cost of borrowing
rates, loans become more attractive to consumers. they borrow more to start businesses buy cars and homes and spend more on consumer goods which can drive up demand and increase inflation. On the flip side, the Fed raises rates to limit demand and keep inflation in check. Usually, if inflation starts to pick up, the Fed considers raising interest rates to limit borrowing. The hope is that this could keep the economy from overheating and keep inflation down. They did this four times in 2018. The economists warned that an increase in inflation can lead people to expect even more leading to a spiral
Jason Hartman 14:00
Now, that is true that inflation has a spiraling effect, but it’s fairly minor compared to the spiraling downward effect of deflation. And this is why they are I mean, if you are a central banker or you are a government, nothing I would pose that nothing scares you more from an economic perspective than D inflation. That is the scariest demon of the mall. inflation. Yeah, it’s scary. But deflation is way, way more scary. Why is that? Because deflation has a much more powerful spiral effect to it. You know, if you look at the bathtub, right and you open the drain on your bathtub and you see that vortex right as the water spirals down the drain. Well, you notice, hey, it doesn’t spiral up, right? It spirals down. The downward spiral of deflation has a very, very strong momentum. And they never want to get that started. So that is why they have a spaded inflation rate. Like why should there be any inflation? Why should there be a 2% inflation rate? You know, that’s their target, right? They want inflation more than anything, maybe to ensure that there’s no be inflation.
Worried this could lead to a period in which wages rise sharply, pushing up business costs and forcing further price increases. This is what happened in the 1970s when inflation rose as high as 12%. Earlier this week, President Nixon issued an inflation alert inflation is now expected to rise by 7%. This year, the tyranny of double portion is our common enemy, people were terrified. It’s worth noting that this phenomenon is largely absent today because of global labor markets. When wages at home rise, companies can hire overseas also When things heat up, the Fed is quick to raise rates and limit borrowing.
Jason Hartman 16:04
Now, as I’ve talked about over the years with you keep in mind, you know, exploiting the cheap labor markets. Yes, that’s the subject of a of a big trade war we’ve got going on right now. It’s certainly something companies can do. But remember, there’s a limit to the hat. That is a finite number of people in the world, although it’s a large number, right, seven, 8 billion people almost. It’s still a finite resource. And I say that Nixon saw that coming. And that was one of the reasons for his historic trip to China, opening up diplomatic relations with China. That was, you know, back in the day before Nixon went to China, that was like, you know, North Korea. I mean, you wouldn’t do business with China. You wouldn’t be I mean, it’s like Trump meeting with Kim Jong, right. That’s a historic, amazing event, right? But China has much bigger country, much bigger labor force. The North Korea obviously so if North Korea opens up, Yeah, that’ll be fascinating. And all we’ve got left after this is is Africa, right, you know, in Africa in some areas is developing kind of nicely. There’s some good stories coming out of Africa. But Africa is very disjointed and it’s just a whole nother complex problem. China one single country right easy to do business with one single vendor and sell it our treasury bills and are are ever more worthless dollars as they suppress the value of their currency to make their products look cheaper than they should be. Right. And this is a this the subject to the trademark. But remember, the cheap labor has a limited supply, and once exploited completely. You can’t go anywhere else. It’s already been exploited. And you see wages rising, per capita GDP in China is what like $10,000 or so per person. Now, in the US, it’s obviously higher, you know, in some of the really rich countries richer than us, it’s even higher than it is here. But the point is that there is a limited supply of that, so that inflation arbitrage will not last forever.
Another reason economists often prefer low inflation is that it makes it easier for people to make accurate long term financial decisions, like starting a business or buying a home. If you know how much your money will be worth in one year, two years and beyond, you can plan with that in mind. But most economists argue that the economy needs some inflation to stay in balance. Moderate inflation gives the economy a cushion in case of a downturn. If inflation is already low, policymakers worry a recession could cause it to dip below zero. There you go known as deflation. When inflation falls and wages follow, people have less money to pay off their debts and start to hoard their money. When people hoard their money, that means less spending and investing which can make the recession worse or prolonged.
Jason Hartman 18:56
And that is the most vicious downward spiral in any year. economy is deflation, they will avoid deflation like the plague. Listen, you saw 10 years ago, during the Great Recession, right? They just kept pumping money into the system. And then the the sort of marginally informed economists are out there saying, Well look, you know, they keep printing money, they keep creating money and they can’t create inflation. Well, eventually they did. And they can just create more money. There’s no limit. Money is not a currency we should say not money. correct term is currency is an unlimited resource. You can create as much fake currency as you want as much fiat currency as you want. You can’t create as much labor as you want, that is finite, you can create as much resources you want. That is finite, the amount of resources on Earth, it’s a finite number, the amount of currency infinite. Therefore, you can create inflation, somehow, some way.
So what’s happening Right now, inflation has been below the feds target for a long time. Right now some Fed officials want to let it rise above the 2% target to make up for lost ground. They say it’s likely they’ll keep interest rates much lower than in the past, a necessary measure to keep the economy growing. The feds benchmark short term rate could peek at or slightly above the current range between 2.25% and two and a half percent. such low rates leave the Fed less room than in the past to cut rates when the economy hits a rough patch. Remember, the Fed lowers rates to stimulate growth and keep inflation around that 2%. In each of the last three downturns, the Fed lowered rates roughly five percentage points. If rates remain low and inflation remains low, that may not be possible the next time around.
Jason Hartman 20:50
Well thank you to the wall street journal for that that was very educational and it just goes to show you why we have the ultimate investment Income property, the most historically proven asset class in the world. Let’s go to a little talk I had with one of our investment counselors, Carrie the other day, and let’s go to that. Hey, it’s always great to have our investment counselors on the show. And our visitor today is Carrie, you’ve heard her before. And she wants to give you a little little update on our last property tour, the mini property tour she did in Memphis and our upcoming property tour in the greater I’m not going to say specifically, but the greater Orlando area. Carrie, welcome back.
Hey, thanks, Jason. Thanks for having me. Especially on your birthday. Yes, well,
Jason Hartman 21:43
hey, I’m working. Thank you very much happy birthday to me. We all got to have one every year and Well, some people regret them. I’m just happy. I’m still kicking them to celebrate another one. hopefully there’ll be many many more and you also wanted a high A couple of your clients that are doing some great things. So where would you like to start?
Yeah, so I just want to say a big congratulations to Cynthia Cynthia actually joined us on the mini Memphis property tour. And she is closing around two or three properties this month from that tour. So congratulations to Cynthia two very branching out and usually her husband takes control of the investments, but now Cynthia is taking the reins. So that’s very good progress for her. Also, Nichelle Nichols, a new investor and nikhyl put two properties under contract in Atlanta, the new construction, so very excited about those up and coming. We also have a few other investors. Charles Charles is doing well. Charles has properties in Memphis, Jackson, you know, he’s really striving and several other investors of course that are on the rise and closing this month putting contracts under So good job. Okay. Oh,
Jason Hartman 22:59
yeah. Congratulations. And, and you know, I always want to say, if we did not mention your name, apologies, we never get them all. It’s not that we don’t appreciate and love you and appreciate your business we do. But we can’t do a whole show with just a, you know a bunch of people’s names. Okay, so, so I hope you understand, but we’ll try and get you next time. But congratulations on your investing everybody. That’s awesome. For the Memphis property tour the kind of mini tour you did. I think that was great. It sounds like everybody had a great time I was I jumped on the phone and and talk to you all as you were just starting the tour Saturday morning, but you also went to Little Rock and Jackson right? It kind of bind three markets in one sort of mini property to her right.
Yeah, that’s right. So when I play on this Memphis property two or several of these investors that attended the tour said, Hey, I have properties in Little Rock. I have properties in Jackson. You know, they’re just a short two, three hour drive away. Do you mind going to visit those markets as well? So We landed on Friday in Memphis and two other investors and myself drove to a little rock room two hour drive, and was able to tour the city and meet with the local market specialist and the property manager to kind of get the feel of, of who’s behind all these properties. Good.
Jason Hartman 24:17
Can you had quite a few people purchased properties on that mini tour, right?
Yep, overall, I believe everyone, six out of the seven investors purchased a property and then some of them purchase two or three properties as well. And so it was never really well fun weekend with education, networking, and seeing a variety of different properties in both Little Rock Memphis in Jackson,
Jason Hartman 24:39
good stuff. And I’m excited that we added a property Tour The day before profits in paradise. So that will start Friday the 25th of October at 11am. Or really we should say 1030 we’d like to get going by 1030. But just in case for the people that are not to Far from Orlando, if you’re flying in that morning, we wanted to make that tour available to you. Then you will be chauffeured to Ocala to look at some properties there. And we’ve been doing great in that market. And that’s the same provider who has the exciting, brand new construction properties in the Atlanta metro area. And so you can talk to his team about that, on that tour. And then, of course, Saturday morning, we start our annual profits and paradise conference for the next two days. So hope you’ll join us for all of that. Go to Jason Hartman live.com. It’s Jason Hartman live com. I’m really looking forward to that event. Carry sure any things like just sort of the pulse of the market, what our clients saying to you, what are they asking maybe some frequently asked questions anything that we can sort of questions knowledge advice, pulse on the market. You That we can share with our listeners today.
You know, one question in particular that’s been coming up a lot in the last few weeks is when to refinance their properties. And should they refinance? Should they 1031 exchange their properties? What’s the next step?
Jason Hartman 26:15
I am so glad you brought that up, but continue. Yeah.
Yeah. They’re just wondering, you know, what’s the next step they have 20,000 in equity on this property? Should they refinance it? Or should they just exchange it for another property? So what are your your thoughts on those options?
Jason Hartman 26:30
I’m going to let all of you in on a little secret. This is actually kind of a big secret. You’re going to like this. You’ve ready folks this? This may or may not work, but I can report to you with 100% surety that it is working for some people. Here’s the thing. The refi till you die plan is great. And we’ve outlined that, you know many times over the past 15 years here on the podcast and regarding conferences as well, you know, when we do it with visual aids, so that’s the refi t di plan, and it’s great. But then, at the last meet the Masters conference, we had a Newport Beach a few months back, we talked about the big boring idea. And the big boring idea was our Oh, a return on amortization. And you have to really choose between these two. But today, I’ve got a super big treat for all of you. You may not have to make that choice. You may get to, hey, it’s my birthday. So I’m going to use this make it to have your cake and eat it too. Hey, I gotta do a shout out to my girlfriend. She did. It was really thoughtful what she did. She’s in Spain, but someone knocks on my door this morning. It’s the delivery man from Whole Foods. Now we all know Whole Foods is owned by Amazon, the evil Amazon. He delivers to me a couple of bags I, you know, he says I have to see your driver’s license. And it’s, you know, that means he’s delivering alcohol, right? So she sent me a bottle of wine, and a mini birthday cake.
Jason Hartman 28:15
But isn’t that cool that we can do that kind of stuff from anywhere in the world now, you know, I mean, it’s just really neat. So hey, thanks, Carmen. Appreciate it. Appreciate the birthday wishes. It was very unexpected, you know, almost no one ever knocks on my door. So when someone knocks on the door, I get kind of suspicious. Who is it? And of course the dog is barking like crazy. So anyway, that was just kind of funny. But yes, you can have your cake and eat it too. Here’s how. Okay, and people are doing this. I know we are not in the era of the Great Recession. We’re not in the era of short sales, foreclosures. People relinquishing their property, cash for keys. deed in lieu of foreclosure or loan modification. But wait, we kind of are some lenders out there are actually modifying loans with out a refinance. So here’s the thing. When you refinance, when you do the refi to you die, many times, you have a couple of huge benefits. Number one, you might get cash out, right, a cash out refinance. And that’s awesome. Totally awesome, because then you’re equity stripping, and you’re protecting your assets. And you can use that money to buy more properties and expand your portfolio and create a whole kingdom for yourself. And also, you get the advantage of a lower interest rate, you know, potentially and hopefully, you get a lower interest rate. So those are the two great things, but the thing you lose is remember you redo your loan and extend your loan term for 30 years, typically 30 year loan. So if you’ve already if you’re already five or 10 years in on that loan, you’re now starting to chunk down the principal balance with ROI, or return on amortization. And that’s the big boring idea we discussed at the last meet the Masters conference in Newport Beach. So it’s this trade off. But you might be able to get the best of both worlds by simply approaching your lender and saying, you need a lower interest rate. You’re thinking of refinancing or selling the property, and that means they’re going to lose the loan. Now, this works more when the lender is keeping the loan in their portfolio when they’re a portfolio lender. Many, many times they’ve sold the loan off, but not as much as they used to. More and more lenders You know, pre Great Recession when all of that trading was going on. That is, to some extent, the subject of the book and the movie The Big Short, which hopefully, everybody saw the movie Michael lewis’s book or, or read The Big Short, because it’s very enlightening. So that’s a great thing that you brought that up, Carrie, because, you know, you could just approach your lender and say, Hey, I need a lower interest rate. And essentially, they will just modify the loan and give you a lower interest rate without the refinance fees. without losing the amortization. You just get a lower rate. So pretty good, doesn’t hurt to ask, you may not get it, but you also might, and people are getting it. You know, many, many people are getting that just for asking. So to hear she that knocketh the door shall be opened, right? It’s never hurts to ask.
Yeah, no, that’s interesting, because the several of the investors You know, they’re asking what are you know, the new terms how many Is it going to cost me to do this refinance? So that’s interesting. You brought that up? Yeah.
Jason Hartman 32:04
Yeah. Well, you brought it up. So I’m glad you did, because it’s something, something our listeners can definitely take advantage of. And there is your gift for the day, have your cake and eat it too. Any other any other things? insights? What’s the pulse of the market? Like the inventories a little bit better? Isn’t it? Did I mean that it was a year or two ago?
You know, it’s getting a lot better? Yes. We have several new properties in the Memphis, Indianapolis, York, Pennsylvania market. We’re bringing on several new new construction properties in different new markets as well. So be on the lookout for that coming up in the next week or two.
Jason Hartman 32:44
Okay, fantastic. Yeah. And we’ve been really working hard to go and get new inventory, brand new construction inventory because you’ve wanted it we actually have set up like a new division of the company. Daddy has been really, really trying to bring in new inventory new home inventory, not just new to our network, but brand new construction for you. We’ve been talking about that a bit. So talk to your investment counselor, go to Jason Hartman calm. And remember something, a lot of this inventory you will not see on our website, or at least you will not see it very quickly. You got to be working with an investment counselor. So just reach out any one of the web forms on our website will do the job for you. Reach out, get connected with an investment counselor if you don’t have one already, and they will really help you get the best properties lickety split when they become available.
Yeah, like Jason was saying, you know, a lot of these properties go so fast. So if you build a relationship with that local market specialist, you know, you’re bugging them daily or you’re bugging that investment counselor. Hey, I’m looking for this type of property. You know that’s going to be fresh in in the LMS his mind sending it to you and getting embark so definitely reach out to your investment counselor.
Jason Hartman 34:03
Good stuff. Good stuff. All right, Carrie, anything else you want to share as we wrap it up
now just enjoy your birthday and your cake.
Jason Hartman 34:12
have your cake and eat it too. You learned out today, you can get a lower rate potentially without even having to refinance. All right, Carrie, thanks again,
Jason Hartman 34:23
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