Jason Hartman begins the show with articles by the former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan. He discusses his concerns about the US economy and where it’s heading, stagflation. He talks about what real estate investors can do in an environment with stagflation. Later on the show, Jason finishes a two-part interview with Scott A Shay, co-founder of Signature Bank and author of In Good Faith: Questioning Religion and Atheism. They do into society’s degradation of ethics and character and how we can reserve it.
Hey Jason, congratulations on your 1000 podcasts. That’s amazing. You are so productive. Not only that for creative work, but everything else that you do pretty incredible football as well. Just one let you know I’m thinking about you and things are going
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it. And now here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:09
Welcome to Episode 1081 1081. Thank you so much for joining me, as we have got a bonus episode today and of course, as always, a lot is going on in the world. Last day here in beautiful Hawaii. It is absolutely gorgeous outside. Sadly today, I haven’t had a chance to experience much of it. little nap by the pool, little swimming in the beach, but lots of work to do. When running these events. I really get behind on stuff. So trying to play catch up. Got a little bit of information for you that I think might be interesting. So Alan Greenspan, our former Federal Reserve Chair, the longest serving Federal Reserve Chair, certainly of my lifetime, known as the maestro and he, he was in that position from 1987 until Oh gosh, what about 2006? I guess right. And you know, he was credited, I think. I don’t think he deserved the credit for a lot of the stuff that happened under his reign. He was a, he was a helicopter Federal Reserve Chair just like Ben Bernanke. He was, you know, he got the moniker helicopter, Ben, because he, one time said that, you know, if the economy needed it, if you had to stimulate the economy, the Keynesian way, john Maynard Keynes, of course, believed in priming the pump, and he was the opposite of hyack, and a lot of the other better thinkers about the economy. I do admit that, you know, that jolt of caffeine does help once in a while when the government pumps it in extraneously. But he got a lot of credit for things that really just weren’t legitimate economic policy, right. They weren’t good economic policy. You know, basically, on a long span of quantitative easing, you know, anything’s going to look good, but at the end, the ending was pretty ugly and I think he retired at just about the right time to let someone else come in and, and deal with his maths right. And that was, of course, Ben Bernanke. He did. He’s out with an article. And he’s talking about seven threats to the booming economy, seven threats to the booming economy. And he talks about the ballooning US federal budget deficit soaring now get this soaring inflation, right, soaring inflation. And that’s something I’ve predicted for a long time. And it was pretty tame for for several years there, although was higher than the official numbers would ever let on. And then falling savings rates, declining productivity, a bubble in the bond market, undercapitalized banks and the trade war. I don’t agree with all of this. I think that some of it is rather overrated. Again, I’m not an extreme student of the banks, and whether or not they’re under cap lies I think they’ve always been undercapitalized. And I think banking has always been based on a house of cards and with fractional reserve banking or fractional reserve lending, it’s referred to both ways. But here’s what Greenspan says about a few things that I think you’ll find very interesting in tailoring your investment strategy to them, and following Hey, none other than yours truly, Jason Hartman is plan to benefit and become extremely wealthy through what through inflation induced debt destruction. Well, the article says, among the risks that worry Greenspan is the possibility of an acceleration of inflation, followed by a sharp hike in interest rates by the Fed to rein it in. Now. Remember, you know, the way it works, obviously, is and I know you all pretty much get this is that when the economy gets overheated, and there are signs of inflation, the Fed tightens the money supply, we see increased interest rates. And that puts a damper on the economy. It slows it down rains in inflation. Of course, the most famous Federal Reserve Chair that really did this made us all take the hard medicine was Paul Volcker, who broke the back of very serious inflation in the past from the, you know, late 70s, early 80s. That misery index stayed inflationary time under Carter. And it did bleed over into the early 80s. For sure. We saw him raise rates and tight the money supply, just incredibly and it ultimately did break the back of inflation. And I think he gets a lot of credit for that. It’s tough thing to do, but you know, you got to do it. And the idea that you have the central bank and a managed economy and central planning, which is a very communistic type of concept, it all really is is terrible. I mean, that’s what causes these boom and bust cycles. You know, I say just let the market manage the economy rather than some central planners. The Federal Reserve or, you know, the Treasury Department and, you know, but it’s the way it is, but right, it’s the way it is. So, I say just align our interests with the most powerful forces, the human race has ever known governments and central banks. And here Greenspan is saying what when he predicts will happen, and I think as income property investors, we can all benefit from this very, very well. As he told Barron’s, quote, We are working toward stagflation as characterized by a weaker economy and inflation. During the 80s. We had an obvious occurrence of that the Federal Reserve can put a clamp on it. It lasted for two to three years, and it brought it to a halt. Now that was Volcker, of course, right. But we don’t think it’s terribly different this time. The impetus for this bout of inflation will come from rapidly growing federal budget deficit, itself the result of rapidly rising entitlement spending. Particularly on Social Security and Medicare benefits for retirees. Greenspan notes that the number of Americans age 65 and older is increasing at twice the rate among working age Americans, creating the biggest fiscal challenge in US history. Make sure you really got that we’ve been talking about this on the show over the years, many times the graying of America, the graying of America concept. Now we have this time in the US where there is a very large older population that is living longer and longer than ever before. Now, granted recently because of the very sad, obesity and diabetes epidemics, and just all of the, I mean, just watch the documentary Fat, Sick and Nearly Dead. We are being poisoned. You’ve heard me rant about that too many times. I won’t bother today. But I got another interesting article for you about that. If we have time, which we probably won’t. So we are definitely being poisoned. And so lifespan actually now is starting to decline just a bit. Isn’t that a terrible thing? It really is. It should be the complete opposite at this time in history with all of the advances in medical technology, of course. So we’ve got this graying of America trend. Certainly Americans are living longer than they did when the social security program was designed. When the average age in retirement was something like three and a half years or something right now, you know, people live 2030 years past retirement, and this is very expensive. This is a hugely lopsided population curve, similar to that of Do you know what country I’m going to say? Do you know? Yes, you do because you listen to the show. And you are a high information investor, Japan, Japan, very similar, but their numbers are skewed much more radically than ours. And the US is much much better off than Japan. But the concept is similar, because they have this aging green population, the Japanese aren’t having kids, they’re going extinct. and Japan will basically not exist in, you know, something like 70 years. I mean that you can’t look, as Mark Stein says, You can’t have a country without people can have a country without people. So Japan, Russia, Western Europe, this is just true all over the West, right? It’s mind boggling really what’s going on demographically in the world. He says stagflation is coming. Now, what does that mean to us as investors? Well, it means we will benefit very handsomely or beautifully, from inflation induced debt destruction, talked about it many times you understand the concept by now, my trademark term, and that will benefit us as investors. But it also means that if he’s right, that we have this weaker economy in the future and inflation at the same time The worst of both worlds usually, you know, if you have inflation, it’s the result of too many dollars chasing a limited supply of goods and services a strong economy, right? But when you have the misery index, the Carter concept of the late 70s stagflation airy times, it’s, it’s miserable, because the economy is weak and you have inflation at the same time. That’s rare that that happens that way. It’s not fun, but it’s going to be a lot more fun for us than it will be for most of the population sadly, and remember, for better or worse, love it or hate it. Economics is a relative concept. Okay? Look, it’s all relative to what everybody else has, you know, you can all talk nice about hey, there’s enough pie to go around, etc. And certainly capitalism does make that happen better than any other system and it does increase the size of the pie. The size of the pie is increased in the freest market, no question about it, but in stagflation, airy times your tenants are suffering more. Now what does that mean? What will they want? Well, they will want economical housing, they will accept less than they otherwise would have expected in the past. So, you know, when you look at two ladders side by side, and we’ll call them the socio economic ladders, right, you place these two ladders side by side. And in the past,
Jason Hartman 11:24
if you had a tenant who was say, age 35, and that tenant would have a standard of living that represented some rung on that socio economic ladder, and then as you move into these stagflation airy times, that rung on the ladder is lower. So they might have had a 2000 square foot home in a nicer neighborhood during a state inflationary time. They will have to live in a 1300 square foot home in a lesser neighborhood. And that’s just kind of the way it goes. During stagflation, it’s the way it goes. So no matter what happens if you position your housing investments correctly, and that’s why I have a little bit of a concern, by the way, can you hear the horn blowing there at sea in the background here in in Hawaii, at the Grand Hyatt adds to the atmosphere of the podcast, doesn’t it? I hope so. Anyway, when you have this happen, you know, people just expect less, they just have to accept less, that’s just the way it is. And we can catch people moving up the socio economic ladder, or moving down the socio economic ladder. And if we position our rental property investments in the right segment, we can catch them either way. And we can serve them either way. Because we can provide rental housing to them on whether they’re on the way up or on the way down. They might have had a bigger house in the past, they might have had a house that went into foreclosure like we saw. So you know, so many millions of people, either by choice, or by default, pardon the pun, go into foreclosure during the Great Recession, but this time around, it would be according to Greenspan’s prediction and hey, he knows he does know something about the economy whether or not I agree with his philosophy, which I don’t. By the way, it’s interesting. Do you know Greenspan was really good friends with the author ein Rand, the famous author that wrote Atlas Shrugged, and the fountainhead atlas shrugged. By the way, one of the best books of all time, you must read it. Whenever you have time to sit down and digest 1200 pages, go for it. It’s incredible. It’s life changing. For those of you who have read atlas shrugged. Who is john Galt, who is john Galt you know what I’m talking about. But he and Iran were very good friends back in New York City years ago, maybe in the 60s. I don’t know. They were very good friends and Iran would have completely she was probably rolling over in her grave watching Helen. Greenspan do what he did as Federal Reserve Chair because he just became a sellout. Sadly, but anyway, it is what it is align our interests with the most powerful forces. That’s what we need to do. Now, this is one of the reasons and I kind of alluded to it a moment ago, that I have some trepidation about short term rental properties and any higher end property. Because remember, that’s not necessity housing, if you look at this socio economic ladder again, right, and you’ve got high end housing, middle and housing, low end housing and everything in between on the ladder up and down. You can’t catch people moving down. When you have high end property, you’re only able to serve one end of the socio economic ladder. But when you’re at the lower middle, you can serve the biggest segment of that and that’s why still, you know, I don’t tend to fall for Well, I fall for it a little bit. Hey, I’m human. But I try not to fall for it, the sort of the hype and the trends and the trendy thing out there. Right. And you know the trendy thing lately? Well, there’s a lot of trendy things lately, a lot of dumb money in the market. At our venture Alliance meeting the past two days here in Hawaii, we talked a lot about the dumb money. And when things are booming, money gets really stupid. Don’t let that happen to you, you know, if you if you have some wealth, like I said before, it’s okay to speculate with 10 or 15% of it take some risk you can afford to lose and you might win, you might hit a home run, but for the rest of the world, you’ve got to invest conservatively and prudently and put your money in the spectrum of the socio economic ladder where you can serve the most people you’ve got the biggest market and conserve the most people. So I mentioned the food thing earlier. And of course, most of us know we are being poisoned by our food and the big food companies. Just little thing here because there is a wall street journal article. And this is last weekend’s edition, November 3, and fourth. And I thought this was interesting because I thought this way for a long time about food now, I’m not much of a foodie. I just eat to live. I don’t live to eat. But I do think that there is one kind of interesting thing that few people think about. And in this wall street journal, there’s a, there’s a whole article about it, which I’ve never seen before. I just thought of this myself many, many years ago, maybe 15 years ago or so. And it’s kind of this concept. Think about it. In the olden days, when life was more traditional, and the family ate around the dinner table and everybody showed up for dinner and it was kind of an event. You know, it was just something they did hate. Like I said, watch old movies and watch old TV shows. Make sure you stay in touch with how things used to be because those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And then So many nuances of that, right? This isn’t a big historical thing, but it’s just the way society was. And guess what, when people sat around the dinner table, they would be in the kitchen before dinner, and they wouldn’t be preparing food in a microwave, they would prepare food the old fashioned way, right? And, you know, pots and pans and ovens. And in so doing, the aroma of the food filled the house, right. And that was part of the taste experience. And I think nowadays, because so much of the food we eat is processed, and it’s just crap. It’s disgusting. It really is. You don’t sadly, we all probably do it. I know. I certainly eat this junk to this poison, but I try to minimize it. And because of that, you know, we gobble it down quickly, and we don’t have the full food experience, which involves many senses, not just taste buds. So this article says, eating should feed all of our senses. That’s the title of the walls. Street Journal article, food isn’t all about taste, it’s essential to smell the bay leaf. And to hear the snap of the celery stick, right? So the author of this article be Wilson, she’s talking about how it’s much more than just this one dimensional thing. Hey, you know, I talked about income property. It’s a multi dimensional asset class, well, hey, food is a multi dimensional asset class. And I would just encourage you to keep that in mind. I think that would really help solve a lot of the health problems we have if people treated food more in a way that involved multi dimensional senses, if you will, so kind of likened it to real estate investing, didn’t I? Hey, that wasn’t bad. Okay, next week, we have got to talk about retiring at age 40. Why the heck would you want to do that but okay, we will talk about it, because this is another interesting Wall Street Journal that I have just got a rant about. We don’t have time to rant about that today, but I’m going to rant about it next week, I think, because this just kind of blew my mind. Maybe you saw it already. And you know what I’m going to say. One of our venture Alliance members, Mary Ellen read that article, as I talked about it just a little bit during our venture lanes mastermind meeting yesterday, it blew my mind profiling a lawyer who’s 38 years old, who wants to retire at 40 and how she’s doing it. Oh, my God, be careful of what you read in the mainstream media, because this just kind of blows my mind. I’ll rant about it in an upcoming episode. Okay, let’s get to part two. And make sure you go to Jason Hartman comm slash contest. We’re going to wrap up that contest for the ring doorbell or the Amazon Echo next week. We appreciate your comments and questions that you can submit when you enter the contest just takes, you know, a couple seconds to enter but you can always editorialize a little bit and ask us a question or tell us what you think about anything. And that’s optional. Okay, let’s It’s part two of our guest. And make sure you go to Jason Hartman comm slash contest.
Jason Hartman 20:11
You know, it seems, I don’t know, maybe I’m just being too cynical, sort of strange. I’m on one hand, I think it’s an amazing time to be alive. And I say that all the time, because it really is. But on the other hand, I think there are some pretty ugly things going on in the world. And one of which that it seems to impact me almost every day in business, and I just, I get very discouraged by it. There seems to be this real lack of ethics and character anymore nowadays. What’s going on out there? You know, you’ve written about this and spoken about it a lot. Give us an overview of your thoughts.
Scott A Shay 20:47
Yeah. Well, thank you. I mean, that’s really something that I’m heavily focused on today. I mean, I just completed a book in good faith, questioning religion and atheism, where this is one of the core issues that I deal with which is modern morality and how we get our modern morality from the Bible. And in my book, one of the things that I do is I talked about when I first came to New York, the first year I was in New York, I got a ride downtown. I lived in the Upper East Side of Manhattan. And I got a ride downtown from a middle level trader who kept explaining to me on each of these rides, remember this was in the days when the 80s they were before you had cell phones and right in cars. So we had people that have talked to each other. They weren’t cars, there was, you know, just incredible work on ancient history, but we weren’t in dinosaurs. We were still in a car. In any event, he would explain to me and sort of my cost of getting this free trip down time for him was he would tell me his philosophy. And his philosophy was, what was best for him was best. And he liked rules that were very detailed, because then he could stay as long as he stayed in the middle of the rules and didn’t break any rule. He could make as much money or manipulate those rules. As much as he could get away with. There was no sort of spirit to the rules, there was what was good for him. And by the way, he knew he had to manage people up. He knew he had to manage people done he never would say anything. He was the modern day Machiavellian in that he wanted himself to look good wanting to do sort of social virtue displays. But what he really wanted to do was to figure out how could make as much money for himself and whatever achieve that was good, whatever didn’t achieve that was bad. And that’s really an idolatry of money. It’s making money, your key value, and in a way, it was sort of the reason it’s, I called it idolatry is because I define idolatry is sort of different than I think most People think of it, idolatry to me. And I go into more detail in good faith. And the book is a set of lies about power. It’s describing supernatural or super authority to finite beings, I people, ideologies, elements like money. And we thought we overcame that thousands of years ago with the god King Pharaoh. But the 20th century was all about idolatry. You know, people 10s of millions of people marched their death in China, because Mao told them to, and Stalin sent 10s of millions of people to the Gulag, and why did they do it because they ascribe an authority or an idolatry to someone. And let me bring this home in a small I don’t want to call it a small way but how we overlook that moral mistake of sliding into idolatry everyday. The movement currently in reaction that started with the revelations about Harvey Weinstein, why did people give themselves over to Harvey Weinstein and think that they had to do whatever he did whether it was in whatever manipulative way he imagined,
Jason Hartman 24:11
right? Because they ascribed an authority to him right?
Scott A Shay 24:14
He was an idol so you couldn’t tap Oh, just like you couldn’t tap all the god King Pharaoh. You couldn’t tapo Harvey Weinstein, and he could make or break your career. He did that largely to women he looks like but to some men to where they had to literally do unnatural things because we believe this is society. His lies about power, and no one called him out. And look, the Bible is all about speaking truth to power. And you know, the prophets who spoke back to Kings and the like, and that’s what we’re so surely missing in today’s day and age and like you. I really look at what goes on and I, you know, I want to cry, sometimes, from pedophile priests to red handed rabbis to inflammatory Emmaus. I mean, it happens every We’re it’s happening in the business world. And it’s happens sadly, in the religious world. And that’s what my book is really all about, is trying to reclaim and re identify important values, understand what idolatry is, and put that out there. And I think once you do that, people feel enabled in, you know, a noble to some degree, so to step up and to stand up. So how do we fix this?
Scott A Shay 25:26
Well, I think the first place we fix this is by re embracing the golden rule, which is, I think, something that both religiously inclined folks an atheist can do, which is, in our policy, you know, like every other bank, we have to have a policy of corporate standards. And you know, it just got to be like other banks, I saw it was getting bigger and bigger. And so I added a line at the beginning, which frankly, for most policies, I think you could I think you realize 10s of thousands of pages of bank regulation. If you just put in, don’t do unto your client, what you wouldn’t want them to do to you.
Jason Hartman 26:07
Good luck with that one.
Scott A Shay 26:08
Well, I thought you were nice 10s of thousands of regulations from the FDIC to everybody. Yeah, well to the Fed.
Jason Hartman 26:16
That’s not that’s not just true in banking. It’s true of really any law. I mean, you could get rid of law after law after law, if you just have the golden rule. I mean, hey, that’s why it’s the golden rule. It makes sense. It works, right?
Scott A Shay 26:30
It does. But then you don’t have people like that trader I was talking about who was happy if there were very detailed rules, because then all he had to do was figure out how to get around. No, right.
Jason Hartman 26:39
Exactly. That’s such a good point. You know, and this is what the central planners and government never realized to you know, you can look at this another way is that they don’t realize that the market reacts to things. And so every time there’s a new law, new tax law, new minimum wage law, whatever, you know, everybody Find a way to get around it, you know, a good example that sort of easy to understand is Obamacare. Right? So Obamacare comes out and suddenly, every 40 hour a week or full time employee becomes a 30 or 32 hour a week, part time employee, you know, all these companies react to it. That’s the way it works. So if you just have the golden rule, how simple it would be right?
Scott A Shay 27:19
It would be very simple. And I think that the other thing that we need to think about is, you know, as we’re entering an era you you touched on Google, briefly and the like, but I think as we enter an era where more and more decisions are made by machines, and all sorts of ways, I think, putting morality and reason back in the center, it’s going to be more important more and more crucial to society. I think it’s very easy for technologies to be very, very discriminatory. I worry about AI when it comes to credit decisioning because even if you And I talked about this in the book, even if you it’s in section one of the book, even if you tell your aI don’t allow it to know whether a person is black or brown, or green, or yellow, or pink, or whatever, the AI is definitionally. Very, very, very smart. And it’s going to figure out all sorts of groupings of people who may have similar characteristics. That’s what the so called fat pipe social algorithms do. And so you’ll end up discriminating against people who there’s really no reason to discriminate against them other than the networks that they have their families, their other their friends. And we could end up consigning certain groups of people to always be at the bottom of the economic totem pole to always pay the highest rate on credit card stories have the most difficulty getting mortgages. Why? Because we could say and financial institutions might say, well, we didn’t do that. We didn’t discriminate that that’s The AI system told us and I worry that we that just like I spoke about idolatry in other ways we could make ai decisioning. We could, just like Harvey Weinstein, we could impute to it a sort of super authority that’s unstoppable. Well, we have to trust our AI because it’s making the right decisions, right? Well, that’s why it’s more and more important. It’s as important as ever, that we call out idolatry for what it is we recognize what institutions and what ideologies and what technologies we’re bowing down to, and that we fix that through, you know, again, I think a good first proxy is the golden rule. So these are the things the reason that I think that is someone who is a believer that we can say, oh, belief is on one side, and businesses on the other because where the rubber meets the road is an Adam Smith recognize that and the Bible recognize that just as well. I mean, if you can only read one chapter of the Bible read chapter 19 every Everything that we do economically God is a witness what’s chapter 19, Chapter 19, and Leviticus, chapter 19. And Leviticus, which is in a way, it says, Don’t cheat, don’t lie, don’t steal every time it says that because I am the Lord your God. In other words, just like Adam Smith had an invisible hand, witnessing every transaction, the Bible says, whenever you do a transaction, there are three parties. There’s you, your counterparty and God watching to see what you’re doing. Well, having that sense of morality is going to be more and more important when a lot of decisions are semi invisible.
Jason Hartman 30:36
Right. And you know what, I’m glad you mentioned that and maybe we’ll wrap up with this, but there are people who believe that you can just have this atheistic world and have the government hold people accountable for their wrong beads and such. And, you know, people just like you gave the Example of the Wall Street trader, or anybody in any circumstance, everybody knows that they can get away with stuff the government, even though Big brother is watching can’t watch everything and certainly can’t prosecute everything right? When people have no higher authority than government, that is just a recipe for disaster if in my opinion, you’ve got to have people live in, you know, and I’ll just say it some degree of fear, maybe that’s not the most eloquent choice of words, that they will have consequences for their actions. Do you agree with that?
Scott A Shay 31:33
Well, look, I’d like to stick with the carrot instead of the stick, right? People say, I think people have faith and recognize that every other person on this planet has some sort of divine spark, or if they don’t believe that, at least believes that we share an important part of humanity with everybody else, and therefore we have a duty and those values are taught from an early age. I think that we have a good shot and I don’t get me wrong. You need to be able to punish People who do wrong, they need to have punishment if they do something terribly wrong, but I’d like to start on the good side,
Jason Hartman 32:06
whatever it is, but I’m saying, you know, no higher accountability from the government. Right. You know, I think that’s why you need God in society. That’s my point.
Scott A Shay 32:15
I agree. I totally agree. I think even government shouldn’t be all powerful. You know, I mean, that’s why we have divided government is something that, frankly, we’ve gotten from the Bible to where there shouldn’t even be one part of government. That is all powerful. I mean, in the Bible, you had the high priest, you had the king, you had the Sanhedrin, the judicial department, and yet the Prophet whose job was always to speak truth to power. I mean, you don’t want any part. You don’t even want government to be all powerful. And what nothing to be all powerful.
Jason Hartman 32:47
Exactly, exactly. Scott, give out your website and tell people where they can find out more.
Scott A Shay 32:52
I’d love people to go to my website, which is in good face.com. There you can learn more about the book and learn more about what I’m saying. Get some links to the TED Talk into some of my articles. And if you’d like and hopefully you will please please order the book.
Jason Hartman 33:08
Fantastic scotch. Hey, thanks for joining us.
Scott A Shay 33:11
Thank you, Jason, a pleasure.
Jason Hartman 33:14
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