Jason Hartman starts the show by discussing the Case-Shiller Index and why it is not the best measurement of the US housing market. He looks at the importance of “local markets.” In the interview segment of the show, Jason hosts Mark Moss to discuss bitcoin. Mark gives us a brief history of cryptocurrency and explains why he likes crypto in this environment. Later they discuss what will happen when the stimulus ends.
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multimillionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day, you really can do it on Now, here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 0:53
Welcome to today’s podcast intro, I thought I’d just do it live again with you. And this is the intro for our show today, part two with Mark moss from yesterday. This is episode number 1500 and 56. And today, I just want to share a couple of things before we dive into the interview with Mark. And one of them is the most widely quoted real estate index. You know what I’m going to say? Right? That is the Case Shiller index, you hear about it all the time. This is the one that news media seems to love to talk about. And what they’re most now they have several indexes, or indices, I guess I should say. And the one that they’re mostly quoting is the composite 20 index, which is for 20, mshs, or metropolitan statistical areas. And in this index, it is really interesting. And here’s why you should be very careful using this to judge the real estate market. Here’s why. Even though it’s, it’s doing well, now, it doesn’t tell you enough information. Remember, in a country as large and diverse as the United States, we have almost 400 m essays or metropolitan statistical areas. This is only 20 of them, and wait till we kind of unpack this and look at what those 20 are. Because you’re not gonna like what you hear. You’re not gonna like it, or at least I don’t like it. I don’t know, maybe you’ll like it. I don’t like it. I think it’s bad news. Yeah, sound effects. So we will dive into that a moment. But understand with even with almost 400 essays, that wouldn’t be enough information to tell me where to invest. Because within those essays, there are over 3100 counties. And guess what, that wouldn’t give us enough information about where to invest or what the market is doing. Say you knew what the real estate market was doing. For every county, over 3100 counties in the United States? Well, a county is too big. In a business where all real estate is local, all real estate is local accounting is way too much to think about. A city is smaller than a county. And even a city is way too much to think about. You have to look at a smaller segment than that. So what’s the next one gonna be zip code? Well, even within a zip code, results can vary quite differently. So a zip code is too big, right? I MSA is too big. A county is too big. A city is too big. Even a zip code is too big. In a business where all real estate is local. In fact, it’s hyper local real estate is a hyperlocal business. So why is it that the news media tells us about this index that only profiles 20 m essays, when even if it profiled every MSA, it’d be too big. But guess what, it gets worse than this. Take a look here. So of the Case Shiller composite 20 index, about 75% of this index is what we call cyclical markets. Now, this isn’t necessarily bad. If you want to know what’s going on in cyclical markets, fine and dandy. But guess what? I don’t recommend cyclical markets for investors. Because anybody who calls themselves an investor in a cyclical market is really a speculator a gambler. They’re not investing. Why Because remember, My definition for an investment in investment is something that produces income, Period. End of discussion. That’s it. Okay, we’re done for today. Now that we know in investment is something that produces income. Well guess what? In a cyclical market, you’re not going to get income out of an investment, properly leveraged, meaning 80% loan to value, for example, you’re not going to get income in a cyclical market, because the rent to value ratios are not good enough to support income. So, a non dividend paying stock is not an investment. Precious metals, not an investment. cryptocurrency not an investment. cyclical market, expensive real estate, not an investment. And I’m sure in vacant land, not an investment. Why none of those things produce income. But does that mean you can make money with them? Yeah, of course, you can make money with them. If you’re lucky, and you catch it right. And it goes up in value. You can make money with it. Sure. Absolutely. Absolutely. But that is a risk. It is a gamble. It is a speculation. So Fine. Take a small amount of your portfolio, especially if you’re wealthy and gamble and invest. Okay, that’s fine. But again, this is this is not investing. It is speculation. So when you look at these markets and the Case Shiller composite 20 looking at my screen, okay. You see Phoenix that is a hybrid market, Los Angeles where I grew up, that is definitely a cyclical market. San Diego, San Francisco, definitely to cyclical markets there. San Diego in San Francisco. Next we go to Denver, hybrid market. Washington, DC, cyclical market, South Florida. near where I live. Now, I live a slightly north of South Florida, I guess. South Florida, cyclical market for sure. Tampa market, hybrid market. Okay, Atlanta, hybrid, Chicago, uh, kind of depends, because if you’re looking at downtown Chicago, you’d have to say cyclical, but if you’re looking at some of the suburban markets, you could say hybrid or even linear ish, okay, so that’s kind of hard to unpack that one. Boston, cyclical, Detroit, linear Minneapolis, St. Paul hybrid. Charlotte was linear now kind of hybrid ish, but I’d still call it linear overall, Las Vegas. I Las Vegas is three cities and one folks, everybody who stereotypes Las Vegas, just you can’t do it with that, because Vegas is really three markets in one. It’s the slummy part. It’s the strip that everyone thinks of is Las Vegas. And then it is the nice suburban areas in Henderson and Summerlin and even Lake Las Vegas. Okay, so that one you almost give it a mulligan and don’t even mention it in this example. Okay. So New York, definitely cyclical market. Okay, Cleveland, linear market. Portland hybrid does really cyclical. Dallas was linear. Now, hybrid, Seattle, definitely cyclical. Alright. So this is not an index you would want to listen to when you when you want to know about what the real estate market is doing. In a country that has almost 400 ml essays. This one only looks at 20. And it’s not the right 20 they’ll be looking at as an investor, at least if you’re a speculator, sure look at it, that’s fine, but not as an investor. And even that 400 markets, it’s just too Even those are way too big to evaluate this way. All right. In our empowered investor inner circle, I posted something that I was pretty stoked about the other day, so I just have to share it with you. And that is one of my properties is this particular property, a self managed property. And I love it. I get my rent early every single month on this property. And I just had to share with my inner circle group there that I got my rent 12 days early. So awesome. No property manager taking any money off the top. I simply got all of my money, and I got it almost two weeks before it was due. So really consider self management. If you want more information on that. listen to the podcast and learn more about how you can long distance self managed properties. I’ve been doing it for 12 years, and I think it’s pretty great. Check this out. This is absolutely amazing. You know, we’ve seen this massive amount of money flowing into the economy and the This number, this is from the Wall Street Journal, by the way, Wall Street Journal 1.1 trillion. That’s trillion with a T trillion $1.1 trillion. This is what lenders did in home loans between April and June. This is to mirror month’s $1.1 trillion in fundings, according to blacknight, refinancing, we’re up to over over 200% from a year ago. And that drove most of the increase but purchases up to and by the way, a lot of that purchase market didn’t happen in these particular two months, where the 1.1 trillion happened, that was mostly refinancing activities. Actually, I take that back, I don’t know if it was mostly refinancing. But the refinancing component was hugely significant as the entire country, it seems I wanted to refi their house. But But what’s amazing about this, is that the next time we see this for the following two months, we’re going to see an amazing number in amazing number of purchase business here. Okay, so that’s largely refinance business. So amazing. And this just goes to show you how completely uneven this economic, I don’t want to say recovery, because I don’t know that we’re in recovery yet. But this economic situation that we’re in very, very, very uneven, maybe more than any other economic situation we’ve been in in terms of its unevenness. And look at this mortgage securities. Remember, when that mortgage loan is made, it is sold off, and bundled up into a pool. And that pool creates a security instrument, either some sort of mortgage security, or a bond. Well, those are both securities, but you know, could be a different type of creative security. So I won’t go into that. But just look at this. This is also Wall Street Journal, it says mortgage securities are flooding the market. And you can thank our rich uncle Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve, our Federal Reserve Chair and the Fed for this, because it is absolutely insane, the kind of volume and really the kind of money being made. It’s absolutely staggering. What is going on in the marketplace right now. So look, in the interest of time, I don’t have time to go into all these today. But I’ll do that maybe on tomorrow’s episode, hopefully. But one more thing before I go. And we got to get to our guests, part two with Mark moss today. Look at this one. This is also Wall Street Journal. And this is corelogic data. It says people behind on their payments aren’t being kicked out of their houses yet, because the federal and local restrictions, right? We know about this. We know the CDC and their new thing. Now they’re being sued by the National apartment Owners Association, which was totally to be expected. And really, I don’t think the CDC has the authority to be engaging in this part of the marketplace. But we’ll see what the courts say and that one is likely to go to a pretty high court, I think, but what’s really interesting here is when you look at this some 3.5 million home loans, that’s about a 7% share. We’re in forbearance as of September 6, this is according to the MBA or the Mortgage Bankers Association. Okay, many more borrowers are behind on their payments, but not in official forbearance program. And a lot of them don’t even know these forbearance programs exist. They just said, Hey, I can’t make my mortgage payment, and I’m going to stop paying. But at the same time, right here, it says it right here, folks, just as I predicted way back in February. Meanwhile, bidding wars are breaking out for suburban homes hitting the market. And what we see here on the chart, is the percentage of mortgage us homes worth less less than their debt on a quarterly basis. Now, what is staggering about this chart, and it is very good news for the market. Is that back in 2010 25% was the number and look at how small that number is now, look at how much that number has declined to less than 5%. And what does that say? Well, it says that coming out of the Great Recession, the underwriting has been pretty darn conservative on these loans. And I just interviewed the founder of property radar, formerly called for closure radar, Sean O’Toole, I just finished the interview with him a few minutes ago. That’ll be on the podcast on the creating wealth show coming up on a on an episode maybe next week, we’ll get that one out to you. And he said, you know, back during the Great Recession, we had so many clients buying foreclosure data from us, a lot of institutional investors, a lot of people starting funds to buy foreclosures. And starting back in March or April of this year, he said his phone was ringing off the hook with all of these vulture investors, the bottom feeders, looking for the big foreclosure crisis coming. And he said, I’m going to quote him almost exactly. And you can hear this for yourself next week when we publish the interview. He said, I don’t think that foreclosure crisis is coming this time. It’s just not happening. Things are completely different this time around. Very different. This is not a real estate lead recession. So you can hear the details and let him unpack that thought for you on my podcast, and I think we’ll get that episode out to you next week. All right, we’ve got to get to part two of Mark moss, if you need us reach out in the US one 800 Hartman, you can actually pick up the phone and call us our us toll free number is one 800 Hartman, or Jason Hartman, calm worldwide. And let’s get to part two of the mark moss interview right now.
Mark Moss 16:34
But if I want to talk about the market, generally, I would like to address one very, very big misconception. Sure. This is the one that I see from everybody. And again, I’m sure you see the same thing. And everybody who’s listening probably right now is going Marc’s an idiot. He doesn’t he doesn’t realize there’s 40 to 50 million people unemployed.
Jason Hartman 16:49
Yeah, Mark is definitely not an idiot, folks. So keep listening. Go Well,
Mark Moss 16:54
let me just say first, I do understand the economy sucks. I do understand there’s 40 to 50 million people unemployed. I do. And I believe maybe even worse than a lot of other people that a lot of the economy might not ever come back. As a matter of fact, a lot of the damage happening to the economy might not come back. So I get it 40 to 50 million people unemployed. I get it the economy, people are making money, I get all those things, I get the real estate markets get more expensive, I get that. But let me let me tell you something different. So the markets, the stock markets, the the real estate markets, the gold markets, and the economy have become disconnected. They don’t mean the same thing. And you can see this so for example, since the pandemic broke out the real estate market crash whatever 50% it’s now rallied back up over that. And now to new all time highs, wall 42 50 million people are out of work. How is that possible? when nobody’s going? No one’s buying anything. No one’s going to malls, no one’s going to dinner? How are these stocks through the roof? Well, that’s simple, because the stocks and the and the markets are disconnected. So that is proof that just because 40 to 50 million people out of work in the economy sucks. That’s proof that the author, the real estate market could rally. And so you have to understand that the government, the Fed, the central banks, wherever you want to call it are putting policies in place to mitigate this. So there is definitely a probability that real estate crashes. And I do believe in lots of areas and different prices and types, it will crash. But I also think there’s areas that will do well, and you can’t discount what the government intervention will be. So for example, they’ve already I’m so glad you said that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you can understand what the government intervention will be just like they’ve intervene in the stock market. They’ve pushed the stock market higher, and they can also push real estate up. So they’ve already done forbearance on on evictions, done forbearance on foreclosures, they could make it where nobody ever gets evicted, they could decide to just pay everybody’s rent for them. They could decide to give a bunch of money to the hedge funds, and have them start buying non performing loans. There’s a lot of things they could do to shore, this real estate market up to offset whatever damage is happening from the economy. And so you just you can’t ignore that. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 19:04
no, I completely agree with you, you know, everybody, you see all the talking heads out there. They’re saying this thing. So what happens when the stimulus ends? Well, I’ll tell you what happens when the stimulus ends. There’s another one after that, okay. And then there’s another one after that, because everybody’s a Keynesian now, especially around election time. But even after that, if Biden gets elected, God forbid, okay, but if I didn’t get selected, then he’s not going to want anything to be bad on his watch, especially at the beginning. So he’s going to dole out the goodies and Plus, he’s a democrat. So he’s going to dole out the goodies. And you know, Trump, Trump is going to do the same thing. It’s folks and uncle or rich uncle Jerome Powell, has said that, you know, he’s just made no bones about it. He’s going to just create money, buy whatever security he needs to buy, buy whatever bonds You know, he needs to buy. You know, they’re just going to make it all better. They’re going to paper over it, which means, well, I think it means inflation. I mean, classically, at least it does. But they see you Aveda that, to some extent,
Mark Moss 20:12
you’re absolutely right. And without dipping into politics, but you really can’t understand money without understanding politics. And so when you look at the left, that’s really kind of pushing that that side of the aisle, really what they’re pushing is Marxism and, and they’re calling it, you know, equality and this and that. And so if those, if those ideas went over, and we’re already seeing more influence of that, that just means more stimulus going out to the people, that means more UBI. That means more help, more assistance, whatever. And so I believe, as you said, right, I agree that whether it’s Trump or Biden, they’re both going to do what they can to push the economy, same deal, but maybe with the left even more, and so like you said, I don’t see I don’t see it any point, they wake up in the morning and go, let’s live within our means. Let’s, let’s not create money, and let’s stop supporting people. No, they’re gonna continue to do. So like Suddenly,
Jason Hartman 21:00
I had I had a dream about the Austrian School of Economics. And I think we should be prudent and have sound money. never going to happen. Never gonna happen.
Mark Moss 21:11
If nothing else, they’ve been emboldened by this, because now all of a sudden, they’re like, yes, we can print $6 trillion, and nobody seems to care. As a matter of fact, they like it if we just give them a couple bucks. So shoot, let’s go to 20 million or 20, I’m sorry, 20 trillion. And we’ll give them another 1200 bucks. Right. So if anything, I think they’ve been emboldened and we’ll see more of it. You’re
Jason Hartman 21:29
absolutely right. No question about it. What does this mean for crypto cryptocurrency? You’re a Bitcoin fan. And I think you’re still a fan, maybe even more of a fan now?
Mark Moss 21:40
Yeah, of course. So you know, all of this. And I know this sounds hyperbole, maybe for a lot of people. But I really believe that pretty much every problem all boils down to the money. Every problem we have boils down to the money. The divorce rate is high, because we don’t have a sound money. What What are you talking about? That’s stupid divorces, because we don’t have sound money? Yes. Because without sound money, we have a divide between rich and poor. before when we had sound money, one person could work and you could have a house and a car. Now two people have to work and you still can’t get ahead. What’s the number one cause of divorce? Money, right? So money, everything boils back down to the money. So we can I made a video recently, and you have like a tree. And then you have all these leaves on the tree and all the leaves are all the problems. And we could sit here and talk about each little problem and how we solve each little one and nitpick on every on every leave. But at the root of the tree is the money. That’s the problem. Because what happens is there’s 300,000,300 30 million people in the United States, each one of those people are irrational. I mean, we’re rational in our own mind, but we’re irrational to other people. We all have once needs and desires. Today, I want this thing tomorrow, I want something else. I don’t know why I just changed my mind. How do you coordinate 330 million people and their wants, needs and desires? How do I how does the market know that I want black shirts? And now I want white shirts? How does the market know that I used to like cars and I like trucks? How does the market coordinate all the materials and labor that go into building those trucks, etc. And it’s done through money communication. Yeah. And what happens is when the Fed creates money creates currency, they distort the communication and now we get wrong signals. And now the economy can’t organize. And so what happens is now we have Jerome Powell and his 12 buddies sitting in a room, they’re trying to organize what 300 and 30 million people want, but there’s no way they’ll get enough data, they can’t do that. So central planning is always going to fail. The only way to have communication inside an economy is through money. And so anyway, Bitcoin fixes that Bitcoin goes to a money that cannot be manipulated. And so we could get accurate price signals accurate communication again, which I believe could then fix everything.
Jason Hartman 24:02
So why do you think that a crypto currency like Bitcoin has a better communication system than save $1? You’re just saying because it’s got a limited supply of 21 million units, right? Is that why it’s a better communication system? Yeah, exactly.
Mark Moss 24:18
So you know, gold was a really good communication system for a really long time. The problem with gold is that it’s it’s its properties, cause it to be centralized. It’s so big and heavy this, put it in a vault and then was used paperclip to certificates. And once you centralize it, then you manipulate it. And the problem back to your question is how does it cause the miscommunication? Well, when you have money has a true cost of capital. So in order to get gold out of the ground, I have to spend money, time, resources, equipment, etc. There’s a true cost to bring that gold, it’s about marginal. I can make, you know, the cost to bring it out of the ground is a little bit less than what it is on the market and the inflation that the stock to flow, the amount of of existing gold and the new incoming gold, the inflation is predictable, and it’s very limited. So it’s a, it’s a, it’s a limited scarcity resource with the US dollar, there’s none of that. So what would typically have to happen is, in order for me to get some of your gold, I would have to provide you with a good or a service that you wanted. And then you would be willing to trade me some of your gold for my goods or services that I’m providing to you. But what happens when the government just comes along and says, Hey, Jason, here’s a trillion dollars, go have fun. They’ve messed up every pricing signal. And we can see this all throughout history. And I’ll just give you a super quick example of this. So way back in the way back in Africa, they used these beads for money. And they were called carry beads, and they were glass, their glass beads. And Africa, they couldn’t produce these beads very well. So there was there were scarce people made them, but it cost was very expensive at times for them to make them. And that’s what they used as money, will the Europeans came to Africa. And they saw how they were using these be these glass beads as money. And the Europeans were what much more advanced at that time. And they said should we can go make these beads in mass in Europe. So they did, they went home back to Europe, this is a true story. This is history. They went back home to Europe, and they made tons of these glass beads for super cheap, then they went to Africa. And they basically threw all those beads into the economy inflated the money supply. And they just bought up all their assets with fake cheap money. Now, that is what led to the slave trade. And now they the carry beads were then called slave beads. And it was all because of inflating the money supply with fake money. We’ve also seen this in Germany used to bomb other countries with with fake currency to inflate the money. Right. And so that’s,
Jason Hartman 26:44
that’s why that’s why the former Soviet Union, and a lot of those Eastern Bloc countries would have these rules that you can’t leave the country with any currency. You know, you can’t leave it and you can’t bring dollars in, you know, they didn’t want you to pollute their stupid closed system, because it would mess up their central planning ability. But people around the world mark, they look at the dollar is that thing you know, that’s the one go to currency, right? Is that changing with the rise of Bitcoin over the last 10 years?
Mark Moss 27:18
Well, what’s changing with the rise of Bitcoin over the last 10 years is education. And all of a sudden, people are now interested and they’re learning. And so really, I mean, I know this goes a little bit deep, and people have a hard time receiving this. But really, if you look at the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, and they created this fake money, and they’re like, well, everyone’s been using gold as money, how are we going to get them to use worthless pieces of paper that we can create as much as they want. And so they said, I have an idea, what we’ll do is we’ll create the Federal Reserve. And then what we’ll do is we’ll make people work all year to collect these fake pieces of paper, and then give them back to us at the end of the year. So they created this. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 27:52
that’s why that’s why they had to create the IRS right after the Federal Reserve, by the way,
Mark Moss 27:56
exactly. And then what they’ve done is they’ve partially purposely left out education about money, but even lied to you about what money is and how the system works. No, Henry Ford famously said, I love his quote, he said that if the people understood the banking system, there would be a revolution overnight. And so people have been purposely misled or lied to about what money in the dollar is. They don’t understand what money is. I mean, if you ask people what money is, they really couldn’t give you an answer. Oh, it’s $1 in my wallet that I know. And and so people don’t understand what it is. If they did, they would wake up to it. And so Bitcoin has created this thirst for knowledge. And really, the internet has obviously helped that. And as people start learning, they’re like, what the heck, what are we doing? This is ridiculous. And that’s really what’s changing things.
Jason Hartman 28:47
And that’s good news. That’s good news. For sure. Okay, good. Well, anything else you want to go over? Just in general, like, you know, any any kind of points, you want to drive home? A question I didn’t ask you, you know, about whatever topic what, what’s going on in your mind? And what are you doing on your videos?
Mark Moss 29:03
Well, I think the big thing that I really talked about in my videos is that as I just kind of alluded to, right, the education system has misled you at best and lied to you at worst, the system is not there to support you. And again, this might be hard for a lot of people to put to receive, but what you’ve been taught about health is wrong, what you’ve been taught, taught about health care, it’s wrong, what you’ve been taught about money, it’s wrong, what you’ve been taught about everything is wrong. And so really, I just love to share information to just empower people, and encourage people to go and learn and research on your own. because no one’s coming to save you. It’s really up to you. And just like what you’ve always said a lot, I say a lot as well is that, you know, money goes where it’s treated best. And so as you started opening with, I mean, I’ve had two recent trips to Mexico, I’ve been looking at real estate in Mexico. I’ve been looking at real estate in other parts of the country. And so I think it’s just important for people to pay attention to What’s going on the politics and the policies in different states in different countries, and really just observe what’s happening so that you can position yourself your wealth for your family, you know, for for long term success.
Jason Hartman 30:13
I agree. I think that’s a great point. And you know, maybe you think that you can’t do it. Now, when I lived in Orange County, I lived in Irvine and Newport Beach in Southern California, when I lived there, I wanted to leave for many years, it took me a long time to kind of get the guts to do it to get my business together to where I could do it. But I finally did it. And you know, just make make a plan to get into a place where your money is treated better. And remember, your money is just an exchange for your life. It’s your time, that’s all you have. That is your entire existence is the amount of time you have. So when when the state whether it be a state or a federal government, I just mean the state, conceptually, the political state, when it takes your money, it’s taking your time it’s taking your life. So you’ve got to minimize that burden to whatever extent possible. That’s very important. So so make the last day The last
Mark Moss 31:06
thing I’d like the last thing I’d like to say today, what I really pound the table on as well, is that I’m sure a lot of people listening to this also are like, Oh, that’s ridiculous. I would never buy bitcoin, I would only buy gold, or no way I’d buy real estate right now. And then they have all these kind of preconceived notions in their head and reasons why they don’t do or don’t like different assets. But you have to understand that our job is not to pick the one thing that’s going to perform best for us. Like you don’t just have one choice, like why not own gold and Bitcoin? I mean, maybe you own a lot more gold because you believe in it more. Maybe you only have one or 2% Bitcoin, but why not? Hopefully own a lot more real
Jason Hartman 31:41
estate. But yeah, whatever,
Mark Moss 31:44
or what, or whatever it may be, but like, yes, have real estate, have some stocks, have some gold have some Bitcoin and, and be well rounded. And that’s why I said right, like, take the time and observe and what’s going on. And it’s not about choosing the one right thing like build yourself a nice, rounded portfolio.
Jason Hartman 32:00
Yeah, good stuff, Mark, give out your website or YouTube channel or whatever you want people to know.
Mark Moss 32:06
Yeah, I mean, the best place to keep up with me is just YouTube. So just go to mark moss just on YouTube. And then I’m super active on Twitter. So it’s just the number one Mark moss. And so I do videos a couple times a week, three videos a week on YouTube, if you like these types of topics. And then and then like I said, I’m super active on Twitter.
Jason Hartman 32:21
And they are excellent, by the way, so keep up the good work. Mark moss, thank you so much for joining us again. Thank you.
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