Jason Hartman hosts Professor David Collum to discuss real estate, asset bubbles, and this year’s economy. They discuss the danger of the Fed and our government. The central bank’s plans of kicking the can down the road will have to spot at some point. Later they discuss college campuses and free speech.
This show is produced by the Hartman media company. For more information and links to all our great podcasts, visit Hartman media.com.
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it on now. here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:04
Welcome to the creating wealth Show episode number 907 907. This is your humble and appreciative host, Jason Hartman, thank you so much for joining me today as we are going to talk to Dr. David column. He is at Cornell University. He is a professor of chemistry and Chemical Biology with the Betty r Miller school at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. Now you might be saying, well, Jason, I did not tune in for a show about chemistry and Chemical Biology from a Cornell professor. I understand that. I didn’t tune in for that either. And no, that’s not what it sounds like. We are going to talk about some various issues his year end report that he does every year for peak prosperity. We will get an early preview of That. So we’ll talk about that we’ll talk a little bit about libertarian versus socialist issues in academia, and the polarity, at least politically, that is just in all of our universities today. So here you’ve got a professor talking about it, which is actually quite amazing. So we will get to that here in a few minutes. But first, I want to talk to you about why I am really, really excited for you. And yes, I talked about this on one of the episodes last week, and that is the five year plan the five year plan. Yes, this is going to be a lot of fun. And I know this is going to help advance all of your investing your real estate investing careers, and that’s really what it is. It’s like, I know you have your main career at your day job. But this is like a second career, your real estate investing career building. Your real estate portfolio your real estate Empire. So go to Jason Hartman comm slash contest that’s Jason hartman.com slash contest. And you will see a brand new page here at Jason Hartman comm slash contest where you can follow three easy steps. You can create your five year plan video, you can be in the video if you want, you can do it as a PowerPoint presentation. Heck, you can show us a video of you scribbling longhand or capturing typing on your keyboard It does not matter but of course when you’re in it, you know it’s it’s more interesting, and I might make a suggestion for a prop you can use in your video. Yes, a prop. You want to use a prop. It’d be kind of funny. Now don’t all do this. But you know and don’t do it throughout the whole thing. Cuz we want to see your eyes right. That’s the connection. The Office eyes are the window to the soul. Who said that? Was it? Shakespeare? I don’t know. Somebody said it anyway. Many people have repeated it. You might want to wear sunglasses for your video because your future is so bright that you gotta wear shades. Anyway,
David Collum 4:19
yeah, you can do that if you want. I’m
Jason Hartman 4:20
kidding. But whatever. Again, let your imagination run wild here with your five year plan video. This is just easy. It’s just a few minutes long. It’s no big deal can be really professional and smooth and sleek, it can be gritty and, you know, sometimes the grittiest thing is the best. And we’ve all seen that with the YouTube generation. So your five year plan, where do you see yourself in five years? What are your goals? How is your real estate portfolio and your real estate investments? How will they help you get their family finances professional career Heck, maybe The point is that in five years, you don’t want to have a career anymore. You want to be retired with your real estate investments, you know, what is included in your investment portfolio? What kind of properties did you buy? Where did you buy them? You know, what did you do to run your portfolio more successfully? This is called future pacing. I want you to put yourself into the future. This is one of the amazing things about our minds is humans. From what we know, the animals cannot do this. My wonderful dog cannot do this cannot put herself into the future. But we as humans, have this unique ability to see the future and not only see the future, but as Jordan Peterson talked about on a recent episode, self author, the future. We are the authors of our own destiny. We are the creators of our own destiny. We are the captains have our own ship. Okay, let’s do this, this is going to be very, very helpful to all of you and I, for one, cannot wait to look at your videos. I’m just so looking forward to this. So, you know, how will we help you achieve your goals? include us in there and tell us how we can help you achieve those goals. That’s what we’re here for. We’re here to be your partner in success in building an awesome real estate portfolio with your five year plan. So step one, create this little video. You can do it literally in minutes, no second takes are necessary. But hey, if you want, you can get all professional about it. You can edit it up like crazy, or you can just, you know, whip out your phone and hold it in front of your face and talk for a few minutes about your five year plan. probably best to write down a couple, you know, talking points or something first, and then publicly, make sure it’s public. Okay, so we can See it, upload your short video to YouTube and just use the words Jason Hartman contest my five year plan in there in the video and you can put anything else in the title you want but just make sure you do that so we can find it and then win a prize. So good luck on that. Remember we got some big surprises here. The first prize valued at 40 $297 you get the meet the Masters general admission ticket. Okay, that’s 797 right now and of course it’s going to go up soon $500 cash travel allowance to come to meet the masters and a venture Alliance mastermind weekend that is $3,000. And by the way, folks, you know a lot of people when they do these contests and things, these values are bogus, they are bs they are bullcrap. They are pie in the sky. No, these are real values because many, many people have paid $3,000 to come to a venture lions mastermind weekend. So that’s the first prize, second prize. single person, one attendee coming to venture lions mastermind weekend and an Amazon Echo second generation. That’s the new one. And then third prize is just an Amazon Echo. And by the way, do you know that you can ask Alexa to play my podcast? And she’ll do it for you? Pretty cool, huh? Yes. Another way to listen to yours truly, in your home, on your Amazon Echo, just say, Alexa, play, Jason Hartman’s podcast. Now, you’re gonna get the hot seat podcast. If you do that, I think which, by the way, is pretty good. You should listen to that one. And you’re saying, Jason, I didn’t even know you had a podcast called hot seat. It’s actually called Jason Hartman in the hot seat and it’s where I play the interviews I do on other people’s shows. So you can kind of hear me from a whole nother perspective that’s on there. But if you say, play the creating wealth podcast, Alexa should find you the right podcast. Hopefully she will try it out. Try it out. Ask Alexa to play it. So that’s that. Okay. So what else do we have going on? Wow, we have a lot of stuff going on. Meet the Masters is coming up. It’s gonna be big. We’ve got VIP ticket upgrades we are about to offer. So get ready for that. That’s going to be super exciting. We’re going to have some early bird pricing on VIP upgrades. So stay tuned for more on that. And we’ve got a whole bunch of future shows. Again, I know I’ve been telling you we’re going to have some extra episodes and we are maybe tomorrow. Thursday. I think Thursday we’re publishing an extra episode, because we have so much content to get out there. I think we’re going to be taken the creating wealth show two five days a week.
Jason Hartman 10:00
Are you ready for five days a week? Can you handle me for five days a week? I hope you can. I hope you can. I appreciate you listening. We just have a whole bunch of interviews that we’ve done a whole bunch of shows that we’ve done that we’ve just got to get out there. It will take weeks and weeks and weeks for you to hear them all if we don’t publish some extra episodes, in addition to our normal Monday, Wednesday, Friday schedule. All right. So go to Jason hartman.com slash contest, enter the contest. Remember, if you already bought your meet the Masters ticket, you can still win. If you’re a venture Alliance member, you can win two, we will just simply refund your ticket or you can give it to somebody else. Either way, that’s fine. And then of course just go to Jason Hartman comm slash events and register for meet the Masters as well because it’s going to be an awesome meet the Masters Remember, this is our 20th anniversary. Meet the Masters event. So we are pulling out all the stops. It’s going to be better than ever. We’ve got a first class hotel property in beautiful La Jolla, California. And if you live in any of the winter climates where you get that harsh winter in the middle of January, wouldn’t it be nice to take a little Southern California vacation in the middle of January? Say yes, yes, it would. It would be nice to start out 2018 with your five year plan, with some big goals with some big inspiration from all of our great speakers at meet the masters of income property. So Jason hartman.com, slash events and Jason hartman.com slash contest. And here is Dr. David column. It’s my pleasure to welcome Dr. David column to the show. He is a Betty r Miller professor of chemistry and Chemical Biology at Cornell University. And he also publishes a urine review For peak prosperity, and I think it’ll be fascinating to talk about what’s going on on college campuses nowadays. And also the upcoming year in review. David, welcome. How are you? I’m good. How are you? Good. Good. It’s good to have you on the show today. And you are coming to us from Ithaca, New York. Is that correct?
David Collum 12:16
That is exactly right.
Jason Hartman 12:18
Good stuff, while my my grandparents are from upstate New York. So I’ve been back there many times, many times. First of all, maybe we’ll talk a little bit about peak prosperity and your urine review, which is coming up. It’s coming out in about two months or a little less than two months. Give us some insights into the year, maybe a little early peek at that if you would.
David Collum 12:38
The whole thing started as just a few paragraphs that I wrote to friends on a bear market blog many many years ago, and around oh nine it started picking up a click count that I couldn’t explain it first. And then I guess was a while before that, even then, I guess was on nine where I decided to write a serious one and then it took off and so every year I write this thing. It’s probably Big, it’s not for the faint of heart. It covers every conceivable topic that catches my fancy. And it’s a, it’s a mix of the things that represent a year. Things that happen that year, as well as once why I get an idea. And it happens to occur to me that year. And I’ll go off on a tangent and start ranting about the mathematical nuances of the Roth IRA or, you know, the stupid concept cashed in the sidelines, stuff like that on go on a tear and see if I can bring some opinion to the story. Good stuff,
Jason Hartman 13:32
good stuff. We’ll give us a little rant on anything you want to rant about. I mean, it’s been quite a year. I mean, you know, we’ve, we’re, you know, deep into our first year with Trump and a lot of changes, a lot of divisiveness, a lot of polarity out there in the political sphere. And, you know, we’ve had quite a few natural disasters this year. You know, there’s a lot going on in the world.
David Collum 13:55
Yeah, well, um, I’ll actually touch the disasters again. Tangent. So I’m going to talk about the merits of price gouging. Why price gouging laws are destructive to solving problems? And by create shortages, right? Yeah, create shortages. It creates all sorts of problems. And it keeps goods and services from coming into the area where you must need them. And it prevents it from distributing rationally, this year has been tough every year seems to get tougher. I don’t know if there’s a pattern there now. But it’s getting harder and harder for me to be confident that what I’m writing about is actually true. I tried a cross check. And I try to see if the plot lines are consistent. But in a great example, you mentioned the political mess. So obviously this year important political issues Russia, in the relationship of Russia to the elections to the two political parties, and I think it’s resolving that the collusion between the republicans and the Russians is miniscule compared to the collusion between the democrats and the Russians, but
Jason Hartman 14:58
you’re talking about the uranium The Clinton Foundation that just seems to get richer off of everything every all the time. It’s unbelievable. These Clintons are just pick up tentacles everywhere.
David Collum 15:08
And you know, the funny part of that story is it’s an old story. So I wrote about the Clinton Foundation and the uranium scandal, either a year or two ago based on I think it’s Schweitzer’s book Clinton cash. And it seemed as I was public knowledge, what busted open this year was how many insiders were involved in it. So money transferred between a republican primary candidate, we don’t know who yet at least I don’t. Then the DNC started paying for these fake dossiers and things like that. And then we find out that the uranium story had been investigated by of all people, the smaller guy who’s now investigating Trump, and then we find out that money actually transferred through the FBI to get this steel dossier and inside it’s getting very dirty. And then Donna, Brazil comes out yesterday right says unbelief. doubly charged story about how Hillary basically controlled every penny inside the DNC prior to her being the nominee, which meant that she was the presumptive nominee by every definition so so it’s so convoluted I, I won’t be surprised with the plot lines not gone, but you know, I think Hillary probably a stupid jail cell seems unlikely.
Jason Hartman 16:21
I would agree Hillary is definitely got a multi decade crime spree. She’s been on. It’s mind boggling. It really is. I want to get to talking a little bit more about the economy and some financial issues. But before we do that, since it’s kind of a perfect segue with this discussion we got into already is can you even mention this kind of stuff on a college campus without being tarred and feathered, you know, or shouted down? I mean, you don’t look at your professor, you work at a renowned University. What is going on in these college campuses? I mean, you know, especially like my mom’s alma mater, Berkeley, right? I mean, my mom went to Berkeley in the 60s of all things. And, you know, I mean, this is supposed to be where free speech, the movement began, you know, I mean, early, some modern movement, I’ll put it that way. Nothing could be further from free speech on these campuses. It’s crazy. Like you couldn’t write fiction like this, you know, what’s going on with this sort of lead ism in these universities and the polarity and so forth.
David Collum 17:26
You know, it’s a kind of a constantly changing landscape to I’ve been thinking lately about why are these students so angry, these students are in the best opportunities you could ever hope for at the age bracket, and there, they’re so mad about something and I think it’s sort of a microcosm of society. But it also turns out to be a small percentage of the students who are making all the noise. And then the question is, well, then why does it matter? And the answer is, if university administrators failed to grow a backbone and failed to take control failed to enforce free speech instead of letting a very noisy small group
Jason Hartman 18:07
inhibit noisy and violent.
David Collum 18:09
They’re getting Yeah. And Tifa for example, is not even a student based organization. So people looking at teeth like elbows are students. No, they’re not a lot of the Berkeley problems are not students. They’re adults. And but the students somehow have this angry, small group has this view that free speech should only be free if they agree with it, and they don’t like their feelings hurt. And one could make the argument that this has been brewing for decades based on how we raise them. I’m a boomer so I raised them too. And, and somehow the sense of entitlement is just overwhelming. Can you speak about it in a campus? Yes. And now there’s some legendary cases of people getting squashed. A lot of times when you hear about a professor getting in trouble for saying something, if you read between the lines you discover that the person got in trouble is actually a lecturer, not a professor lecturers are very vulnerable. Professors real professors are tenured, tend to not be as vulnerable although you can be attacked. I mean, you can be assaulted, I got into a real scuffle in a labor dispute where the union got voted down and I played a pretty central role in making sure that happened. And then, of the union organizers did a smear campaign on me and did some damage in my opinion. I was guilty of it. And then one of my colleagues a law school attacked them viciously back but but I’m feeling consequence, I’m running into people who think that I’m a different person than I am based on their smear.
Jason Hartman 19:34
That’s just just terrible. That is so so wrong. It’s just preposterous that these are the groups that purport to be the tolerant ones, the open minded ones, nothing could be further from the truth. And what what is also shocking to me, is this sort of complete lack of critical thinking. I mean, I’ve been trolled on the internet for the most innocent comment That, you know, these far left and Tifa type people will turn into this massive violation of political correctness. It’s shocking. It’s just mind boggling, like, these people can’t really think this way. I mean, it’s just amazing. You know, it seems to be very self centered thing to, you know, like, in one point, there’s the lack of critical thinking when you try to talk about the economy and, you know, the basic fundamental idea that, you know, someone has to pay for things, right. Things don’t just come out of the sky for free, you know, are very few things do I should say, people have to be incentivized for productive labor to, you know, bring you this fantastic life and all these modern conveniences you enjoy, right? And you know, those things. There’s, like this lack of critical thinking, but it always devolves into this ultimate hatred and your prejudice. You’re racist. You’re, I mean, it’s like really can we can we just have an actual conversation? about things. It’s It’s shocking. I mean, john stossel has been on my show. And, you know, he’s he’s done some segments, you know, showing him with the video cameras how he gets shouted down on college campuses and stuff. I mean, it’s it boggles the mind.
David Collum 21:13
Well, you know, the adults need to step in. So so at some level, you know, if you look at, say, children in the 60s, you know, the college students, they were as angry as anybody, and I wasn’t really there. We kind of saw it on TV from my perspective, but if the adults were not so crazy themselves at times, and you know, be very simple, by the way, if you disrupt a speaker, you get a violation of some kind, right? You can disrupt free speech. And they would say, well, that’s disrupting free speech. You go now the free speech is letting everyone speak. And so I think cowardly administrators are the problems. Some of them themselves are so extreme politically, that that they can’t see the damage they’re doing. So I think what you do is you sort of cordoned off The kids who say, you know, shout amongst yourselves. We have a university to run here. And and that’s what’s maybe lacking us extreme case, which I’ll write about all this year as an Evergreen State College where I believe the activists may have set into motion the ultimate destruction of the school. I believe it’ll be insolvent in a few years. you elaborate on that for a minute? Well, so evergreen is that score going to Brett Weinstein wrote a very, very left wing progressive guy basically said, You guys can’t enforce that students wanted the white students not come to campus on a specific day and he said, Look how you want but, but you can’t tell someone else not to show up.
Jason Hartman 22:40
Let’s see if someone calls in the National Guard, you know, escort the white people in the school.
David Collum 22:46
That’s right. And so what happened is that it went crazy and promise evergreen had a 98% admit rate, which means they had a 2% margin. And I’m guessing they’re their admissions have plummeted a number of schools. admissions have plummeted like University of Missouri for example, but evergreen, which was just barely hanging by its nails is probably below the solvency level. And I wouldn’t be surprised the whole thing got swallowed up and reinvented and you know, sort of like a chapter 11 restructuring or something.
Jason Hartman 23:18
Yeah. Wow. Unbelievable. It’s just crazy what’s happening on these these college campuses. Talk to us a little bit about the economy. And what you see going on out there.
David Collum 23:27
Fascinating disagreements there too, about the economy and markets. There’s people are talking about how good the economy is. Usually they’re someone who has a horse in the race. Well, doesn’t everybody have a horse in the race? To get it right, although I like to write about it. So I have a horse in the race. Someone did an analysis and pointed out and it was a fascinating one. It the growth in the economy from I think it’s oh nine to the present was approximately the same as the growth in the economy from 1931 to 39. And although the path was very different 31 to 39 had bigger swings are this economy’s just been chugging along and maybe the numbers are wrong. That’s the problem. But we’ve been chugging along and it depression levels but without the wild mood swings, because presumably the central bank interventions are keeping the lows from appearing. And so the GDP from oh seven has grown from the oh seven peak of the GDP has grown about 10% and the equity markets have grown something like 100% I don’t have the numbers in front of me but so if you want to know why we’ve yet again grown a new bubble, all you have to do is notice that the equity markets are you know, factor of 10 above the GDP and their growth rate. And so we’ve got stupid and you know, the valuation metrics to measure whether equities are overpriced or are fraudulent, they’re not just not very good, they’re fraudulent. Tell
Jason Hartman 24:51
us about that. If you would, I mean, you know, people can just look at p e multiples and so forth, price earnings multiples, and you know, look at it that way, and those are high But where’s the fraudulent analysis there?
David Collum 25:02
There’s a pile of valuation metrics that I think are decent like price to GDP and GDP has got wiggle room in it because it has an inflation correction. There’s a thing called Tobin’s Q, which is price to book value. There’s composites of Hussman and Doug short and they all put the market at some random number 50% overvalued. You look at the P e. However, something like the triple q that hundred tech companies, or the Russell 2000, and they’re in the 2325 zone and you go, Well, how could that be? I’ll buy a rapidly growing tech index at a PE of 23. Well, it turns out the way they calculated is they take all the peas that are above 40 and they round them down to 40. And they take all the peas that are don’t exist because they’re negative numbers, their losses, the companies are losing money, approximately 30% of the Russell is losing money. They give them a P e of 42. Saw the sudden the 2023 becomes a fabricated piece. And when again Steve Bregman calculated it by saying look, let’s take the whole market cap and let’s take the whole earnings and losses and make one big, big pot load of price earnings ratio and it comes out at seven Mark Hulbert says the Russell 2000 is around 80 as opposed to 23 and so investors are being lied to by the parent companies who report on these indices it’s fraud in my opinion so they think they’re buying at a reasonable price like I you know, I can buy at this price I feel better but then I would never use before p ease or affection for p ease meaning you’re trying to put earnings that’s complete fabrication, and they’re always too high. The corrections to the Ford PE are always downward. They never mistake on the high side. You know, it’s just a marketing machine out there. And right now the markets or whatever about I’m looking at a 50% regression to the mean and since anyone who knows arithmetic knows that you have to spend statistically waited half your time below two mean, we shouldn’t regress to it, we should progress through it. And that gets you to, you know, 60 70% correction. If you’re
Jason Hartman 27:09
Wow, that will be incredibly ugly if that happens. Unbelievable. You know, I always say Wall Street is the modern version of organized crime, just like the government manipulates the statistics for inflation, employment, everything else under the sun. Of course, Wall Street does that too.
David Collum 27:26
Yeah. And and so I think the Fed is terrified of the social structure of the correction. So the Fed seems to have this, this view that they simply can’t let anything happen. They’ve got an aversion to recessions, which is very weird for a central bank. Past central bankers have been willing to inflict recessions upon the market to correct things and now we are terrified of them. And I think they’re afraid that the profoundly underfunded pension system within the world but within the US too will become total insolvent with a real correction, which, by the way, for those who are unaware of this, the the market pricing and oh nine at the bottom was the historical mean, it turns out that it never got below the mean is spent about a month at the historical mean valuation. So they thought that her way to go through that thing.
Jason Hartman 28:18
Wow, that’s pretty amazing but you know that Trump optimism on the economic side, the money is just flowing like crazy into virtually every asset class. I’d be curious to see what you think of the cryptocurrencies, by the way, that seems like a huge tulip bubble to me. There’s a lot of money just looking for assets in which to invest or if their wealth effect dries up, you know, with an equity correction, like you mentioned in the stock market, that’ll change things obviously, but
David Collum 28:46
we know they said there’s this Maxim it says more people died reaching for yield than at the point of a gun. So we have this situation now where people are projecting seven and a half percent returns whether we’re talking about a state pension or personal pension, people somehow have been convinced that seven and a half percent and entitled return which is not only not true now, which at these valuations not a prayer, are you getting seven and a half percent sustainable, but it was never true, you never got seven and a half percent is more like a half, something like that in the 20th century. So now, because the, the central banks have screwed up the bond market so badly now you can’t get anything out of bonds because all the profits squeezed out in terms of principal gain. Now, you’ve got nothing but zero percent returns going forward essentially, and a great risk right? And so you’re going to have to get all your returns off equities. And so you’re everyone’s buying apple and all the stuff in it. Hey, it’s some point thermodynamics is that is that
Jason Hartman 29:45
the three laws of thermodynamics Yeah,
David Collum 29:47
at some point the system equilibrates and then you will go back to things costing sort of a reasonable price and apple going to reasonable places and I think that process has been made. So So dangerous now because of the distortions and they’re they’re terrified of it happening fast
Jason Hartman 30:06
when you say they you’re talking about the Fed and that you know the powers that be the government
David Collum 30:11
controls it right the fact the central bank’s control it if the Fed said look, we’re raising rates, we’re taking them to 4% people would be flying through the windshields of their cars fast and, and pension funds would be collapsing, you’d have a collapse in the bond market and the stock market simultaneously
Jason Hartman 30:27
and no one no one’s gonna do the paul volcker thing and, you know, make the economy take the hard medicine. Are they
David Collum 30:33
one Volcker game, the hard medicine we didn’t have these huge sovereign debts and personal debts. Now, you know, the patients in the ER and now you’re trying to save the patient from dying, right? This is no longer a person who needs you know, some some therapy, there’s a person who’s you putting the paddles on. And so I don’t see a way around this being anything but really but ugly, and it’s the creation of the Fed and said banks who refuse to take short term pain since 87, I would say and then stat have created what could be a calamitous period somewhere in the future. Right now the bears that would include me and there’s others, some have been on your show. They’re looking like crazy homeless guy with a sign that says the end is near.
Jason Hartman 31:21
Right, right. And sometimes they’re right though, they’re gonna be right eventually.
David Collum 31:25
Right? And if you’re right in, you’re right in a colossally effective way. You know, you say, well, being too early is wrong. Now, it’s not not up. It’s a big call in oh two, I wrote a five page essay on the coming subprime crisis. And I nailed it and someone asked too early, you’re, I’m no, no, I’m taking credit for that one. Because Because I really did see it and get it. And the fact that took five years just shows the insanity of a credit market,
Jason Hartman 31:50
right, that it can keep expanding. So that’s always the question. You know, David, it’s not seemingly not incredibly difficult to know. That in any market plays for anything that you get past the point of fundamental value, right, that things are bubbly and frothy and getting ridiculous, right? irrational exuberance, you know, to use that word to use a Greenspan ism. The question that’s really tough is, you know, how long can they just? Can it just keep going? How long can they kick the can down the road? No one can ever tell when the jigs gonna be up really, you know, that’s pretty hard. You can tell when the markets frothy, you just can’t tell, you know, when it’s gonna end. And that’s hugely problematic when you want to make predictions and investment choices and so forth. Because, you know, things can go on for years and years and years. You know, I’ve interviewed so many people and I used to agree with a lot of them. Now, you know how I mean obviously, the central banking cartel is a big scam. We all know that but the US is going to lose its reserve currency status and the whole house of cards is going to crumble and collapse but They probably keep playing this game for another hundred years or more. I mean 100 I don’t know. Am I wrong?
David Collum 33:07
Yeah 100 Yeah.
David Collum 33:08
Oh 10 2030 years
David Collum 33:11
time scares me. The biggest variable that scares me is time because because they can freeze the clock for a long time. You know, husband had this great sort of quote where he basically said, If you pay way above historical price, you’re going to get way below historical return bottom line, you got to understand that you realize if you buy high, you’re gonna sell low, right? I cobbled together a maxim that comes from a maximum based on savings and which I said that I checked, Dolan said this best I can tell that that overvaluations appreciation called forward and undervaluation is deferred appreciation. So there’s a savings maximum that sounds like that. The key there is, is once you’re way overvalued, any further game, in price any further appreciation, you’re gonna give back, you’re already way above me, you’re going to give it back Either through a long, slow slog or you’re going to get it back to a sharp shot in the head. Something like the blackjack player, right? What do they do? My understanding is I don’t play much blackjack, but my understanding is, is that when the deck is stacked against you, you keep your bets down. And when the deck is in your favor, you let your bets go up. And so I just happen to read a quote this morning from Buffett saying, you know, given interest rates where there are that the market looks pretty cheap. Now, my opinion Buffett’s lying his ass off Buffett lies all the time. I mean,
Jason Hartman 34:31
he’s lost a lot of credibility over the years, I think, you know,
David Collum 34:35
he’s got 100 billion dollars of cash, sitting there staring cheap markets and not moving. So he’s a holder of a higher order. He’s a brilliant investor, but it’s because he’s a mobster. Yeah, you know, the whole story of his Canadian HCG purchase and stuff that’s going to come I’m going to write about that this year. This finance company in Canada that he bought into
Jason Hartman 34:55
people have to realize I mean, you know, I’m not He was saying, you know, Buffett’s a crook or he’s not a crook or he’s a scummy guy or not. But you know, people have to realize no matter what you think of him, he’s an insider. And you’re not okay. We’re not insiders. And he is,
David Collum 35:12
I’d argue breaking the law because he is working with insider information, right? Ryan, he’s part of every bailout. In fact, this Canadian purchase that I’m going to talk about in my my interview, it’s about get positioning for inside buying when the Canadian housing bubble burst. And he’s going to be right there. And he’s going to be scooping up Canadian banks for pennies on the dollar. And he needed the machinery from h HCG to I think it’s a CD, I could have the symbol wrong, but uh, so So yeah, Buffett’s a hoser. He’s a world class hoser Michael Lewis wrote about that. 91 give me an idea. And I wrote about it 18 years later, not knowing about the Lewis essay and till the last minute. So Buffett’s claim that the markets are cheap is bull and he knows it because he wrote it. article in 99 talking about how you value markets and what he says now is completely and utterly flying in the face of what he said 99
Jason Hartman 36:09
Well, he is he has an incentive to be a cheerleader, because that just means more money flows to all the stuff he owns. Right? Right. So that’s what he’s gonna do. I mean, during the bailouts, I think he just watched tons of credibility during the bailouts telling everybody to do things that were completely different than the deal he got. You know, he got an insider deal. Nobody else got that
David Collum 36:27
of a bailout. He is the bailout he and Bill Gross were the bail. Yeah, yeah. guys weren’t just beneficiaries of it. They were key cogs in it. They had to be involved for it to happen. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 36:38
sure. Absolutely. Absolutely. give out your website, tell people where they can find out more about you and your work and get a hold of the Year End review. David,
David Collum 36:45
if you search on any computer Dave goes rogue, you can find some old stuff of mine. I haven’t updated it for a year or two but you find a bunch of links. I can be found just by searching by name and Cornell and you get to my you get to my Cornell website and then lastly, my Twitter feed is at David B column co l l u m column. I’m on Twitter at some point every day ranting cracking jokes relatively content free garbage.
Jason Hartman 37:10
Good stuff. So David B column co Ll u m on Twitter. Excellent. David, thank you so much for joining us today. We appreciate having you on the show. Thank you.
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