Jason Hartman introduces opportunity zones and starts by saying why he believes it is an overhyped opportunity. He hosts Eric Willett, Vice President at RCLCO, about the aspects of Opportunity Zones. They look at gentrification and explain how the gentrification index works. Later, they end with some thoughts on the state of the multifamily housing market.
Jason Hartman 0:00
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Jason Hartman 1:07
Welcome to Episode 1323 1323. Thank you for joining us today as we are going to talk about opportunities zones and gentrification. Now as most of you know, I have not been very impressed with the whole opportunities own stuff. I think there is a lot of hype about this. There are a lot of promoters out there trying to navigate a very complex set of rules. And lot of hipsters who are in my opinion scamming people Now granted, we’re not going to know there was a scam for many years possibly But Mark my words I’ve been right about this stuff most of the time before. So we’ll see. We’ll see. But hey, there are some legitimate reasons to look at opportunities zones. They fit into a relatively small box. You can do 1031 exchanges, of course, you can do some of the other vehicles that I talked about in our recent profits in paradise event. If you’d like to know about these, check with one of our investment counselors, if you have an investment counselor already, just reach out to them directly. If not, go to Jason Hartman. com, fill out any web form at Jason hartman.com. And we will be in touch with you just make sure you leave your best contact phone number, and we’ll be glad to tell you about some different programs to significantly reduce the impact of capital gains. But there are a few people that really do fit into the opportunities own concept. And anyway, this guest today will talk about opportunity zones and also talk about the gentrification phenomenon that is happening. And you know, is it the law of unintended consequences? This is What happens with a lot of these government programs, what they intend to happen? Well, in practice in, you know, there’s a difference between the ivory tower theory and the real world practical application of this stuff. So, again, none of us know. It’s all just a speculation. It’ll take years for this stuff to play out. It’ll take years to see if people really get their tax breaks, it’ll take years to see if the areas are improved for the people who live there. Or if those people will simply be pushed out. And it will take years to find out if you invested with a scam artists. So all of these things, if you invested in an opportunity zone, and again, there are very few of you listening in these 189 countries where we have listeners that this will apply to this is a pretty narrow opportunity, the opportunities own it’s like a double Positive opportunity opportunity. So we’ll kind of examine some of that stuff today with our guest. Without further ado, let’s get to him. Be sure you go to Jason Hartman calm and check out properties and get in touch with an investment counselor. And I’ve got good news for you. We have quite a decent amount of new home inventory again, this is Class A stuff you pay a little bit of a premium for it. But I know many of you listening really like the A properties, you like the A neighborhoods, and you like the upper scale tenants without paying a lot of money without going into one of these crazy cyclical markets or even hybrid markets where the risk is higher. So we’ve got low risk, high quality, new construction investment properties, and our investment counselors can tell you all about those through Jason Hartman calm let’s get to our guests. It’s my pleasure to welcome Eric will it to the show, he is vice president at RCL. co real estate advisors. And today we want to talk about opportunity zones, specifically, an article I saw that he is the co author of I saw it a couple of months ago, talking about building opportunity mapping gentrification and investment across the various opportunities zones. Eric, welcome. How are you?
Eric Willett 5:26
Thank you doing well. Thank you for having me.
Jason Hartman 5:27
Good to have you. And you’re coming to us from my former hometown, Los Angeles, California. That’s correct. I guess let’s start out with the whole opportunity zone thing is pretty new. It’s rather overcomplicated. If you ask me I can see you nodding your head that you agree with that. It’s kind of spotty. It’s being implemented different ways in different states and cities. Just what are your thoughts on the macro level? And then let’s drill down.
Eric Willett 5:53
Sure. Yeah, I think you know, certainly opportunity zones is a trendy topic and commercial real estate. It’s one of the most significant changes to the way that Investment landscape has shifted probably in the past 10 years. And because of that, there’s been just a great deal of excitement from investors from operators, developers, you know, all players within the real estate industry to working, working within this framework and using opportunity zones. I think the program, as you mentioned, is pretty complicated, both in its aims and its implementation, it has elements of an economic policy to incentivize development writ large, but then also a very targeted policy to incentivize development in specific areas. And so I think we at this stage in the cycle, and with these policy aims, we see kind of counter currents that are running against each other. And as it’s at the really early stages of its rollout, we’re still seeing how it will manifest throughout the market, both in terms of nationwide but then also how it will impact different communities, different property types, so on and so forth. So
Jason Hartman 6:53
mapping gentrification, I mean are we already seen some of that due to the opportunity zone initiative?
Eric Willett 7:00
Yeah, absolutely. So I think when the opportunity zone rollout was happening, so the rollout of regulations, which has been an extended process, of course, but that’s rollout started happening halfway through 2018, through the end of 2018, into early 2019. In terms of the regulations, the identification of which zones were categorized as opportunity zones, and all the specificity around this legislation that was fairly broad in its statements, and then adding the specificity for the regulations, that all was happening at the end of 2018. And at RCL. Co, we thought it was important to take stock of where these communities were once they were named, and say, you know, a lot of these communities, this is not the first time there’s been a thought of investment in them. And in fact, a lot of them have changed a great deal over the past 10 years. And an interesting wrinkle in the opportunity zone regulation is that the qualification of the opportunity zones in the ultimate designation of opportunities zones occurred on a state by state level, but based off of 2010 census data using the 2010 census. data to establish certain metrics such as income level and so on and so forth. Right, which sounds qualified what you
Jason Hartman 8:06
might be saying when you say that is that here we are, you know, seven to now, nine years later after that census, a lot of those areas have already gentrified. You know, I it just brings to mind Oakland, California. I mean, talk about a change, you know, driven by Silicon Valley. That’s probably maybe one of the more dramatic examples of, of gentrification in the country, I guess. But, you know, would tell us about that. I mean, you know, it’s a too long the lag time, maybe for that census date. Yeah,
Eric Willett 8:36
that’s exactly right. And it’s by virtue of the data being available. That’s the best option really, that they had with that level of granularity. But yeah, a lot has changed in those past 10 years, of course, 2010 being in the midst of a deeper, you know, coming out right at the kind of the very tail end of the recession. But then, and then today, you know, after a long period of steady growth, so we did see a lot of communities that have changed pretty dramatically over that period that have gentrified. That the demographics have changed in a variety of different ways or that have already received a great deal of investment that maybe weren’t being invested in at the tail end of the last cycle through the recession.
Jason Hartman 9:10
Right. So in other words, they didn’t really necessarily need an opportunity zone.
Eric Willett 9:14
I think that’s been the criticism we’ve heard a great deal of and some examples that, you know, come to mind you, a lot of people focused on several opportunities zones in New York state, including several in the New York City area areas, such as Dumbo and Brooklyn where the median income is above 100,000. Right, that doesn’t fit the concept of an area that is either disadvantaged or an area that has not received real estate investment.
Jason Hartman 9:38
Yeah, well, you know, the a lot of those yuppies were pushed out to the expensive Manhattan area. So they went across the bridge.
Eric Willett 9:45
It’s a different type of demographic change. Exactly. Yeah, absolutely.
Jason Hartman 9:48
Absolutely. Okay. Well, in looking at this article, you talked about some of the key findings here and I’m sure you’ve touched on them but anything else you know, this this pie chart, I
Eric Willett 9:58
think this is one of the more interesting components that we found there’s a lot of media attention in popular press energy around the fact that gentrification tends to be happening in high cost markets and markets like Dumbo or Los Angeles where I’m based, and that that’s where the real gentrification trends are. And when we were looking at the subset of opportunity zones, we found that actually a lot of the real gentrification on the metrics we were measuring which were a demographic change, changing investment and changing economic realities, the most gentrified opportunities zones, were actually concentrated in what we would consider Rust Belt cities or post industrial cities, Detroit had the highest concentration of those tier of most gentrified opportunity zones. And I think that runs counter to a lot of the popular narrative and is really important and thinking about policy implications that the character of neighborhoods and opportunities zones throughout the cities that we focus on less perhaps has been changing over the past 10 years and promises with opportunities own program to perhaps change more to some extent, it’s, you know, igniting more and energy in these areas.
Jason Hartman 11:01
So how much change? I mean, you know, I guess the question might be, when will the cycle have been worth the beginning of the cycle of development? How long will this play out for that? You know, it At what point in the future Can we look back and say, Hey, this is what really happened because of the opportunity zone legislation.
Eric Willett 11:21
Sure. So the way the program is structured, it incentivizes front loading the investment, because some of the benefits were off over time. And if you invest three years down the road, you’re going to be able potentially depending on how the legislation changes down the road, but some of the benefits were off. So investing three years down the road is not as beneficial to the investor as investing in the next six months to nine months, 18 months, whatever it may be. So I think thinking out five years down the road will have a pretty good look at what the impact is in these areas are best bed based off of early markers of where investment activity is happening and opportunities zones because we can already see prices changing in zone And activity in institutional investment activity in these zones, our best bet is that it will really exaggerate some of the trends we’ve already seen. So most of the investment will be in areas that already have some negative institutional activity. So not moving to the really far out rural areas, but concentrating in urban areas, for instance, particularly in coastal cities. So we see the hints of that in early capital market data. But we don’t know you know how that will move going down the road, and then where that will really end up.
Jason Hartman 12:30
Yeah, and by the way, just want to say for the listeners, of course, this is mostly most people will be listening to the audio, but we are putting this on the YouTube channel so you can see some of the visuals that we’re talking about here. So so that’s good, and unintended consequences or maybe intended if you want to be conspiratorial about it. But, you know, every program, every government program especially has all these unintended consequences, whether it be Cash for Clunkers or a zillion programs before that, and after that What are some of the unintended consequences that are happening in the opportunity zones? I mean, certainly it’s going to make areas nicer. But gentrification has its own costs to the people that have been living in these areas for a long time at a very low cost. Talk to us about that, and how the programs working.
Eric Willett 13:16
Yeah, I think that’s the really tricky component of this. And I think as we looked at the gentrification index, it was important for us to remark on gentrification as an a neutral observer of an activity that’s happening, because there it certainly is a organic process that happens in communities nationwide that changes demographics for positive for some negative for others, and it changes rents positive for some negative for others. And so there are definitely winners and losers and all these activities. And I think thinking about the policy, we see some of the same dynamics at play this in certain communities, we expect this to be in effect, throwing gasoline on the fire, right, really igniting development in an area that maybe wasn’t the most active development market, but already had some hints of the gentrification gentrification of perhaps more white wealthy professionals moving in and displacing communities of color, low income communities like that we see that as a potential trend. And we also see more of the intended effect of driving some investment to areas that just have not had access to capital have not had real estate activity in a way that benefits the community. And so certainly from afar, looking back, we hope that most of the activity is community oriented. Right, and that it is investment activity that benefits the residents and benefits the broader community as well. I think that, you know, in terms of unintended consequences, the risk is that that’s not the case. And certainly, the commercial real estate industry is not always geared towards addressing those concerns. And so it’s that important tension between the public sector and the private sector investment that will, in certain cases make that happen, and in certain cases will result with that not
Jason Hartman 14:52
when developers come in and try to do projects and opportunities on designated areas. I would assume the skids are pretty greased, if you will, right? They’re not getting a lot of resistance from planning departments and things like that. I would, I would think, but maybe you can speak
Eric Willett 15:10
to that. I think that strided certainly varies by area. But a lot of these areas are communities or neighborhoods where the the municipality is hoping that more investment goes and has worked with the state government to designate it as an opportunity zone as a way of funneling development towards that area. So I think, you know, with a broad brush, I think that’s true and that the public sector is supportive of investment in these areas. But certainly there are examples where that’s not the case.
Jason Hartman 15:35
So what’s going on with the Sunbelt cities, your article talks about how many of the least gentrified opportunities zones are in those areas,
Eric Willett 15:44
so that sunbelt cities are really unique, both in terms of their demographics and the way that real estate investment activity has been happening there. The real key with the Sunbelt, I think that we’ve seen in our analysis is that because of their suburban bent, they’re much more suburban than they are or Particularly the the opportunities zones that are designated. So both the character of the city is generally more suburban but also where the opportunities zones are located are more suburban. Because of that bias or kind of that over indexing on suburban, the gentrification has been less extreme in the past decade. So across the board, gentrification has been more pronounced in urban areas, in urban opportunities zones, and we know from other research in urban areas generally. And so because of the suburban focus of sunbelt cities, there’s been less of a gentrification push, and that, of course, reflects the different demographics, the different pricing structure of those markets, and then also just the different preferences of consumers there.
Jason Hartman 16:39
You know, I’m not sure you’ll be able to answer this question. So forgive me if it’s not your area, but you know, the gentrification index itself is a pretty interesting thing. I mean, what is that looking at? Is it looking at the trend, the difference and over what time period I mean, that’s got to be a pretty complex index to Create a hold on, you know, it’s sort of easy. When you look at this, this one table, you have it, you’ve got the gentrification index, demographic index, income index investment index, I would think of all of those income and demographics would be the easiest, but gentrification and investment because they’re really dynamic more so than the other two, I’m thinking would be dead that pretty hard to calculate.
Eric Willett 17:25
That’s correct. And gentrification is this kind of many headed beasts. So there are lots of ways to look at it. What we focused on are those three categories that you mentioned, right demographics, income and investment. And for each of them, our analysis of gentrification was focused on the change. So I had to have two elements first to add to start out, so for income add to start out low income and then have significant change in the intervening period and we were looking at the period between 2010 and 2017. So those seven years for investments similar concept where the area was disinvested in 2010, so had less than the average investor For an area and within it within a, an urban metropolitan area, and then over that seven year period had an increased amount of investment more so than its peers. And demographic change was more focused on the change the just an area that has had significant demographic change. And so our analysis looked at all three of those thinking that they offered slightly different perspectives on an area and then melded them together. And as you can see online, we have an interactive dashboard that allows you to play with the different indices to see where the each lever impacts the overall index and where perhaps income is more of a factor than investment for instance.
Jason Hartman 18:37
Yeah, fascinating. So can you speak those specifically at all to the gentrification index? I mean, like you said, it’s a multi headed beast, right? How do you what do they just look at the race of people moving in and out and over what time period I mean, how the heck do you come up with an index like that?
Eric Willett 18:54
Yeah, so So, you know, we before doing this looked at the academic literature to see how variety is academics, we’re looking at it look at other practitioners to see our gentrification index is, in fact, the combination of these three indices below, right? That kind of the demographics in income and investment. So rolls it all up together, saying that all three of these are different markers of gentrification. And so collectively they tell a story of gentrification as a whole. It’s a really difficult thing to measure. I think one of the important components is that this index as with many indices is in fact relative, right? So it’s only as valuable as the comparison point compared to that is always the
Jason Hartman 19:31
Eric Willett 19:32
yep. Those are, you know, the limitations of the data that we have. And there’s no real one definition of what gentrification looks like. But to a certain extent, everyone agrees there are components of all three of these factors, right that with the demographic group that lives in an area is shifting, that tends to be a result typically from people of color to a more white demographic that tends to be gentrifying, rising incomes and then rising investment tend to be kind of the markers of what gentrification usually looks like. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 19:59
yeah, fair enough. You know, it’ll be interesting to see what happens politically in the coming years because all the gerrymandering will begin of both sides trying to get the right voters in there in there. You know, and that kind of stuff. So fascinating
Eric Willett 20:16
and opportunities zones is somewhat unique in that it it has had bipartisan support. Certainly it was part of the tax bill that was passed tonight, you know, a landmark accomplishment of President Trump. But I think looking forward to the at least observers in the industry and us as well see the bipartisan support as of it as kind of ensuring its continued implementation, regardless of political changes at the federal level. But it’s it’s a really important thing to watch. And as we know, federal policies can change pretty rapidly. That can dramatically impact the way the nature of real estate investment in the context for it. The other
Jason Hartman 20:52
thing that’s pretty hard to do, within index, especially like the gentrification index is the sum of these neighborhoods. It’s just living Really a couple of blocks, that makes a huge difference. And so how do you stake the geography? You know that? Just really, it’s hard to tease out what’s really happening even with all of this data, you know?
Eric Willett 21:13
Yeah. And data is, again, only as good as the data you have. Of course, the benefit of the opportunity zones is the program itself is structured around census tracts. And so they’ve identified that that’s kind of their building block for the opportunity zone, program and opportunities on legislation and then regulations. And as a result, we were able to pretty closely match that with the Census Bureau data both from the decennial census that was conducted in 2010. And then more recent data they’ve collected through less frequent surveys, including the American Community Survey.
Jason Hartman 21:45
Yeah, fantastic. Well, hey, if there’s anything else you want to tell us about opportunity zones, feel free. I do want to ask you just for a moment before you go about multifamily and you guys do a lot in that space, and we want to hear about You’re your take on the market, both present and future. But anything else about the opportunities own topic?
Eric Willett 22:06
No, I think it’s it is an important one to watch. And I think we’re at this exciting early stage of it exciting and and potentially a concerning, right. We don’t know what the path forward will look like. And so it’ll be really important as the program matures and as investment is actually deployed into these areas to measure the impacts, both in terms of the real estate, financial economic impact, but then also the community impact and the ability of this program to improve outcomes.
Jason Hartman 22:30
Good stuff. Okay, so the multifamily market, there’s many aspects, of course, valuation of properties, cap rates, and then, you know, what, what are the rents doing? What are the vacancies like, and the construction has just been on a tear coming out of the Great Recession? Now, for a while, it felt like we were getting a little oversupplied. I don’t know if that’s still true. What are your thoughts? You know, when every American city you know we have the city bird is the crane Construction crane. And that’s still pretty true, I think.
Eric Willett 23:05
Yeah, it’s certainly been a unique 10 years. Right. And for multifamily, in particular that the last 10 years have been really for a wide range of factors, including demographic, but also this unique supply component has been on a tear, as you said, just really a dynamic industry that has been throwing up apartment buildings left and right. And I, one of the interesting things that we’ve been monitoring as a firm and as we work with clients in the multifamily space is this idea that what were previously high barrier to entry markets or markets that were considered high barrier to entry. Now we’re like, I don’t know, like, it’s really interesting. Maybe the barriers aren’t so high. And so coastal markets like Los Angeles where I’m sitting, there has been in fact, a lot of supply delivery areas like New York where, yes, they’re traditionally high barrier to entry. It is harder to build, but there there has been a lot of supply delivery that maybe wasn’t anticipated going back 10 plus years, where we’re at today. I think we see he was before it before that topic. You’re talking about Los Angeles, you’re saying that the barrier to entry is hard because the land is constricted. There’s a lot of bureaucracy that it’s hard to build. Right. So I think, Well, I think that was kind of the governing theory going into the recession and the media years out of the recession. But the last few years have led to some questions as to whether that’s actually true, because certainly it’s certainly it’s higher barriers to entry than Tampa, Florida, for instance, or Atlanta. But we have seen significant volumes of supply delivery in nearly every market nationwide, including those with regulatory burdens and high land price land constraints. And so across the board, I think we’ve started to reconsider what high barrier to entry really means, because there has been such a supply and movement of supply.
Jason Hartman 24:46
Yeah, interesting. Well, in LA, you know, you’ve got a situation where everything is, firstly, an infill project, right? Yes. Yeah. So you don’t need to do an environmental impact study on Are you going to destroy the habitat of a bug? Okay, because something’s already there, right? You’re just building something better in its place. So, you know, maybe that’s kind of one of the factors and, and certainly, I mean there’s a lot of economic problems in California certainly other places as well. They want the money they want the tax base. So the end of the day, you know, it’s the old saying follow the money everybody has to go with their pocketbook right including city planners.
Eric Willett 25:29
Yeah, well then there is a great deal of political pressure to build more housing and there’s an obvious on in many of the coastal markets, there’s an obvious housing shortage and so the combination of factors in addition to significant capital flows has helped allow for for more supply now Is it is it enough that you know, I know Los Angeles obviously very well living here and working here and is it enough supply to satisfy the demand? Probably not, but it’s probably also more supply them that we would have anticipated A while back
Jason Hartman 25:56
Yeah, yeah. Interesting. Okay, sorry, interrupted. What were you going to say? If you remember
Eric Willett 26:00
Right. Well, so looking for it, I think they’re they’re kind of two countervailing trends, right. And that the first is where I think a lot of flashing yellow signals that we’re approaching the peak of this of a market cycle, right, and who knows what that means and how severe it will be and when exactly well, and but but looking across the market is pretty clear that that we’ve had a good run and that there are some weaknesses in the economy that maybe would ask for some level of caution and the real estate investment. On the flip side, though, particularly about multifamily is the demand trends are really strong. And looking at 510 years, we think there’s a lot of opportunity left and some runway left in the multifamily market that hasn’t been met. And so we think there’s, in particular, looking across the different commercial real estate asset classes multifamily is a strong one with a lot of really strong demand potential.
Jason Hartman 26:46
Yeah, I couldn’t agree more. I mean, the demographics coming with the rental market are still incredibly strong, and they have been strong for a long time. I used to say the next 10 years are great, but that was almost 10 years ago, and they’re still phenomenal. But when you dice that up a little bit, and I know we got to wrap it up, but you know what segment it See, it’s like everything being built is a class, you know, maybe be, but there’s just nothing. That’s the no bread and butter housing is being built in the single family market in the multifamily market. I mean, it’s just all expensive.
Eric Willett 27:20
Yeah. And the reality is that the factory pricing, so the the construction costs, but the labor and the actual materials costs are such that it makes it really difficult to justify building lower cost housing at this point. So I think that that’s, that is true nationwide, true across all the markets and is a real challenge. And so there are a lot of really smart real estate developers really smart groups that are trying to crack the code, right? How do you deliver a product that is lower cost, but still a solid product and deliver it at scale? And I you know, I think well over the next five years, see some real activity in that space. And certainly, the capital markets have realized that there’s a huge opportunity there. In both the consider workforce housing, so more affordable but not subsidized, and then also in this subsidized space,
Jason Hartman 28:07
right, but are there any certain tricks that they’re going to be using to do that? I mean, you know, you see this stuff on social media, 3d printed houses, they’re $10,000. Sure, as soon as I see them in real life, I’ll believe you, but so far, you know, it’s just like a digital rendering. I’m seeing on my Facebook feed. Maybe it’s one but it’s just not that way. And then you hear about these $20,000 houses you can buy on Amazon. Well, we checked that out. And that is completely misleading. You know, they don’t include all the engineering studies. Of course, they don’t include the land. They’re just little kits that are like frames. It’s a joke.
Eric Willett 28:45
Just there is some movement, modular construction. You know, there are some large groups that are pursuing that in earnest with really serious investment behind them and I think we actually in Southern California and throughout California have seen a few instances of my buildings being built up to being constructed that that look good, right? They look like really great apartment buildings and they function well and they can be maintained well. And so there’s some energy there is the delta between that and a traditional build up from the ground. Is that enough to justify it? Is it enough to really move the industry in that direction? I don’t think we know yet. But I guess that’s the glimmer of hope there that, that maybe that as that industry matures, that there will be an opportunity in that space.
Jason Hartman 29:28
And what’s funny about that is our society has this odd and I believe misplaced discrimination against modular housing. It is fantastic. But as soon as you say that, people go, Oh, it’s basically a mobile home. And, you know, homes should not be built on site. They should be built in factories and assembled on site. It’s just logical. The construction process is still pretty old fashioned. In the aggregate, that idea that framers will come and You know, bricklayers come. It’s just an event can be much better done in a factory.
Eric Willett 30:06
Yeah, there are a great number of studies out there showing how the productivity change in real estate construction is among the lowest of any industry over the last hundred years. And so elements of this sort of innovation, modular construction, factory built paneling, so on and so forth is really, it’s definitely the future. We don’t know when it will mature and get there, but that’s definitely where it’s headed.
Jason Hartman 30:26
I say it’s long overdue, and we need to put our old prejudices against that aside, because some of these builders do a great job with that kind of stuff. So for sure, we need to see more of it. It’ll it’ll create more affordable housing. Okay, hey, give out your website and any closing comment?
Eric Willett 30:44
Absolutely. Well, thank you for having me. If you want to learn more about opportunities zones and the work that RCL does, please check us out online, our websites RCL co.com. And you can find our opportunities own index under our advisory resources, in addition to a great deal of information about commercial real estate vesting and and the services we provide good stuff.
Jason Hartman 31:02
Eric, thanks for joining us.
Eric Willett 31:04
Thank you so much. Have a good one.
Jason Hartman 31:10
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