In this Flashback Friday episode, Jason Hartman welcomes Richard Duncan to talk about the pending global Great Depression and how we can stop it. Richard is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The first book discusses the collapse of the dollar, while his second book discusses the dangers of credit contraction.
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Welcome to this week’s edition of flashback Friday, your opportunity to get some good review by listening to episodes from the past that Jason has hand picked to help you today in the present, and propel you into the future. Enjoy.
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Jason Hartman 1:32
Welcome to the creating wealth show. This is your host, Jason Hartman. And this is episode number 293. Thank you so much for joining us today. And we’ve got another great show for you today. It is New Year’s Eve. And I just wanted to wish everybody a very Happy New Year with all this stuff going on with the fiscal cliff that has not been resolved. But hey, Congress got a pay raise. That’s what’s important. We got to make sure we take care of take care of all the crooks running the government, right? It’s unbelievable, you couldn’t make this stuff up. It’s so ridiculous sometimes. But with a guest today. And with just all the stuff in the news, I want you to go into the new year into 2013 with just the utmost confidence that regardless of how ridiculous our our country is being run, and how ridiculous that frankly, the whole world is being run. It’s not just the US it’s the rest of the world too. It’s just beyond ridiculous. With all that is going on. Just know that by the very best strategy, you know, nothing is perfect. Nobody can say for sure, nobody knows what will happen, for sure. But if you’ve been a listener for the last nearly 300 episodes, I am sure you will agree with me that we have the right strategy for the current environment of ridiculousness, we’ll call it that. And just know and have confidence that you’ve positioned yourself, for what is going on for what is probably to come. And you’re on the right side of it, you’ve got time on your side, you’ve got irresponsible government on your side, you’ve got the ridiculous conspiracy known as the Federal Reserve, it’s, I guess, it’s not really a conspiracy, but maybe it is, I don’t know, you’ve got that on your side, you’ve got all of these things that are working for you rather than against you because frankly, you’ve adopted the same strategy. They’re using the strategy based on inflating your way out of the problem. And if it doesn’t happen, you’re still on the right side of things, for many reasons, which we’ve talked about in the past. And we will continue to talk about over the coming year. Just want to wish everybody a very, very happy new year. Be sure to check out all of the stuff at Jason hartman.com that we have for you the blog, the products, the upcoming events, our next tour our next creating wealth, bootcamp and property tour that we will probably have in Houston, and then all of the stuff that we’ve got coming up throughout the coming year. And for those of you coming to the meet the Masters event in January, which is totally sold out. We look forward to seeing all of you in just a couple of weeks at that event, January 18.
And I will be bringing my new puppy to that event. So you’ll get to meet her at that event. My first puppy and my first female dog. I’ve always adopted mature dogs before and I adopted this one recently from the animal shelter. It’s rare that you get a puppy from the animal shelter but you know, I wasn’t really ready after my other dog passed away that I had for almost 14 years and and loved very much. But I went to the animal shelter to those start looking because it took me months and months and months. I can’t even remember how long to find him almost 14 years ago. I went and I just kind of got lucky I saw these there was this litter of five puppies that someone dropped off Finn’s surrendered. And they said, there’s a raffle forum, put your name in. So I put my name in. And Heck, I got first pick. Imagine that the pick of the litter, if you will. So I’ll bring the new puppy to the meet the Masters event in January, I always brought the old one. And so you’ll get a chance to meet her. Her name is Coco. And I just want to wish you all a very happy new year. And we will look forward to seeing a lot of you at the meet the Masters event, Hyatt Regency Irvine. By the way, I know that all of you have not reserved your rooms. So be sure to do that. Go to Jason hartman.com. All the information is there on the site and get get your room reserved to make sure you’re all covered for that. And you do not need a rental car. If you’re flying into john Wayne Airport, the hotel is right near the airport. And there’s a free shuttle or you can take a taxi. So don’t bother renting a car. It’s just easier without a car, frankly. And just super convenient to john Lee in Orange County Airport. Airport code is sn a as most of you know. Anyway, let’s go to our guest. And again, Happy New Year. Look forward to some great stuff in 2013. And we thank you so much for your continued support. And we will be right back with our guest in just a moment.
My pleasure to welcome Richard Duncan to the show. He is an expert on dollar collapse. He is an author and economist, a consultant and a speaker. And he’s the author of three books on the dollar crisis and the economic crisis. And today we’ll talk about specifically his latest work. He just got back from touring the US for the last four weeks. And he is coming to us from Bangkok today. Richard, how are you?
Richard Duncan 6:38
I’m well, thanks. Thanks for having me on your show.
Well, the Jason Hartman 6:41
pleasure is all mine. So tell us about your latest work, and especially about the quantity theory of credit and how it played a huge role in the crisis.
Richard Duncan 6:50
Okay, well, the new book is called the new depression, the breakdown of the paper money economy. And the theme of this book is that when we broke the link between dollars and gold in 1968, this removed all the constraints on how much credit could be created. And afterwards, credit in the United States absolutely exploded. total credit. And by that I mean government debt, household sector debt, corporate debt and financial sector debt. In other words, all the debt that first went through $1 trillion in 1964. And then over the following 43 years, it expanded 50 times to 50 trillion by 2007. And this explosion of credit is the thing that really created our world, it made us much more prosperous than we would have been otherwise. It ushered in the age of globalization by allowing us to finance as massive trade deficits with credit denominated and paper money. The problem is, of course, in 2008, the private sector in the US couldn’t repay its debt. And at that point, the global economic crisis started. And ever since we had been teetering on the verge of collapsing into a new, Great Depression. The only thing that has kept that from occurring is the massive annual trillion dollar budget deficits by the US government.
Jason Hartman 8:14
You know, that’s an interesting statement you made in the in the beginning of that response, where you said, this explosion of credit, which is a massive explosion of credit, is what allowed us to become so prosperous. Now, the real question is, is that prosperity was that an illusion created by credit, or legitimately leverage and financing does allow for growth, which can become legitimate growth ultimately, if used prudently, I just wanted to kind of get your take on that. Because I think to to a decent extent, if not large extent, the prosperity is a bit of an illusion,
Richard Duncan 8:51
I agree to a considerable extent, it has been something of an illusion, but a very good one. When when credit expands its rapidly, it drives the economic growth, it’s easy to understand how credit growth drives economic growth, as long as credits expanding rapidly, then the consumers have more money to spend. So they spend more and therefore businesses are are more profitable. And they hire more people, and they expand their capacity. They even pay more taxes, so the government has more money to spend. And all the while asset prices keep going higher and higher. The thing is, is though the day always comes when the credit can’t expand any further. And that that they arrived, because eventually, the amount of credit in the system is so great, that the income of the public simply is no longer sufficient to service the interest on all the debt. And then the day we can default. And this whole world that was built on ever expanding credit, then begins to implode. And that’s what we experienced starting in 2008. So This expansion of credit has been going on for so long now four and a half decades, it’s really completely restructured the entire global economy, it played a big role in the US being de industrialized, and moving from a manufacturing based system to a service based system based on finance and real estate. So that completely changed the structure of the US and the global economy over a multi decade long period. So this was a long lasting illusion. And now the danger here is that if credit begins to contract contracts significantly, then we are going to experience an equally long and severe multi decade economic crash or depression.
Jason Hartman 10:45
It’s interesting that we’re talking so much about credit because it has largely been ignored, frankly, in my opinion, you know, when you when you hear the inflationist, and the gold bugs talking, they’re always talking about how Nixon closed the gold window in 71. And that’s what changed everything. And the government could print money, ad infinitum. And there was no restraint anymore. But they really don’t talk about the creation of credit. They talk about the creation of the money supply. And in this in the great recession that we’re still in, it’s funny that we haven’t had more inflation, frankly, in my opinion. But I think the reason for that is largely because it’s not just about money supply. Now the money supply has increased dramatically, but the supply of credit has actually contracted. And I think it’s a balance between the two. And you know, money is credit. Of course, you could say that, and maybe I’m not kind of drilling down enough or making enough distinction between the two. They’re not exactly the same. I just like to get your take on that.
Richard Duncan 11:59
Right? Well, I think this is a very fascinating subject. And this is something that I write, write a lot about in the book, people, as you say, focus a lot on 1971, and Nixon closing the gold window. But I think even more significant step occurred a few years before that, in 1968 1968, President Johnson asked Congress to change the law. Up until that time, it had been a law that the Federal Reserve had to maintain at least 25% Gold backing for every dollar that it issued. And Johnson, there had been no problem with the Fed doing that, after World War Two, because the US had most of the world’s gold. But they actually came up against that binding constraint and 1968. And President Johnson’s request, they removed that requirement. And afterwards, the Fed could issue paper money with without having any gold backing whatsoever. And at that point, that is when the nature of money changed. Before then, there was a very clear distinction between money and credit. In those days, money was gold. And credit was credit. Then if you took $1 bill to the Treasury Department, at least in theory, they had to give you some gold for it. Now, they’ll just give you another type or dollar. So there’s no longer any real difference now between money and credit $1 bill, for example, what the difference now the thing $1 bill and a 10 year treasury bond, they’re both essentially credit instruments, the dollar pays no interest in the treasury bond pays next to no interest. So the distinction between money and credit, become larger, perhaps disappeared altogether. And that’s why in this book, I introduced something called the quantity theory of credit, which is an adaptation of the quantity theory of money. They say the quantity theory of money is the oldest surviving economic theory dating back to the 1500s. And that’s the thing that all of monetary policy and monetarism is based on. And the idea was, and still is that if you increase the amount of money in a country, for whatever reason, you discover a new gold mine or you print a lot of paper money. Well, what happens is you get a short term economic boom, for the boom doesn’t last very long. Because pretty soon you have inflation, and the inflation kills the doom. So you have a short term boom, the short term Bufton generally not too much damage is done. But the thing that has changed now, well, before, you can only expand the money supply for a short while, in most cases, because gold was money and there was a limited amount of it. So you tended to have short term booms and short term bust. But what has changed is, as I said, the nature of money is completely different. Now, money and credit are the same thing. So there’s no longer any point in monitoring the traditional monetary aggregates like m One and two, and three, the thing that we have to monitor now is See, in other words, total credit, this number that I’ve mentioned, that has increased from $1 trillion to $52 trillion, in just four and a half decades, there has been a thing that for this is what I call the quantity theory of credit instead of the quantity theory of money. And the important difference between the two is that, whereas you can only expand the money supply for a short time, creating a short term boom, followed by a short term bust. Now, in our world that we’ve lived through for the last five decades, we’ve been able to expand the quantity of credit 50 times and 45 years. And that explosion of credit has created an unprecedented global economic boom. But the danger is now that this credit begins to interact in any significant way. So we are going to spiral into what the economist Irving Fisher described as a debt deflation, depression,
Jason Hartman 15:58
hasn’t it already contracted massively, though, I mean, and when it contracted, as the deleveraging was occurring, it was really actually sucking up more dollars, because the dollar still happens to be with reserve currency for whatever amount of time that last. And it actually strengthen the dollar. It was kind of counterintuitive. Well, the
Richard Duncan 16:20
number that I use is reported by the Federal Reserve, this total credit number that I’m talking about, they reported in their flow of funds data that they publish every three months. And this the total credit number, it hasn’t significantly constructed. In fact, it’s it’s flattened out, which was already quite unusual. And now it’s expanding a little bit again. And the reason it didn’t contract is private sector debt started contracting, because a lot of defaults took place. But that contraction in private sector debt was offset, or even more than offset by the expansion of government debt. The US government debt has, because of the budget deficits expanded by $5 trillion over the last four years. And it’s been that expansion of government debt that has prevented total credit from contracting and therefore prevented us from spiraling into a debt deflation and death spiral.
Jason Hartman 17:20
Let me take a brief pause. We’ll be back in just a minute.
Richard Duncan 17:25
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Jason Hartman 17:46
I guess the classical inflation happens when larger supply of currency are chasing a limited supply of goods and services. And it sort of makes you wonder like you made an interesting statement a few moments ago, you said Money Creation can only happen for a limited time. Did I hear that correctly? And if so, why would that be? Why? Why can’t Money Creation just go on forever? Of course it leads to inflationary collapse eventually. And it leads to Zimbabwe and hungry and Argentina and y Mar. But what really limits it other than that the ultimate demise? Or is that what you’re referring to?
Richard Duncan 18:26
Well, what I meant to say earlier is that before when gold was money, when we were on a gold backed monetary system, you could only expand the money supply for a short while because there was only so much money. There was only so much gold.
Jason Hartman 18:40
Yeah, it was limited. It was that’s that’s why they call it sound money. Right?
Richard Duncan 18:44
That’s right. That’s exactly right. And the government had nothing to do with it. Yeah. And but of course, it’s an entirely different world now that we’ve moved on to a fiat money system.
Jason Hartman 18:53
Yeah. So So why though, would there be a limit on the amount of money creation? It seems to me like when it’s complete Fiat, it can just go on forever? Yes, it’s destructive. But can it just go on forever? I mean, like, I’ve heard the deflation is say, and it sounds like you might be one of them. I’m not sure yet. But I’ve heard them say, make statements like this. They can’t print enough money to stop the deleveraging. And the deflationary forces out there. They’re bigger than the amount of money they can print. And that never made sense to me, Richard, because what’s too, there’s no limit on the amount of money that can be created
Richard Duncan 19:31
for you right now. There is no limit on how much paper money that governments can create
Jason Hartman 19:35
electronic money. It’s even easier than paper. It’s not even paper. It’s just electronic.
Richard Duncan 19:40
That’s right. I mean, I like panic when I say I know. They don’t get it. Paper anymore, I guess, which is cheaper. They don’t even have to buy the paper or the ink.
Jason Hartman 19:51
I know. It’s ridiculous.
Richard Duncan 19:54
So yes, I mean, they can continue to do this. But there are a number of varying forces. at play here, we would have already had hyperinflation A long time ago, except for one other completely separate development that’s occurred more or less simultaneously with this explosion of credit. And that development has been globalization. Because of globalization, this is resulted in extreme deflationary pressures in the world. And that’s because as a result of globalization is no longer necessary to hire. Someone emerged, again, to build a car and pay that person $200 a day. Now you can hire someone in India, and pay that person $5 a day to build a car. So this represents a 95% drop in the marginal cost of labor. Your next worker, the cost of hiring, your next worker just fell 95% because of globalization, and nothing like this has ever occurred before this is they say there are three factors of production land, labor, and capital. The cost is one of them has collapsed by 95%. So this is extraordinarily deflationary. I agree. This is putting downward pressure on the price of all the manufactured goods. And that is reasonably avoided so much inflation so far.
Jason Hartman 21:16
Right? Right. And I agree, I mean, we’ve, we’ve imported deflation, or export inflation, I guess you could put it either way to other countries through goods. And the world, for the first time in human history is awash in goods. I mean, goods are plentiful, prices are cheap. It’s amazing. But here’s the thing, once we have already, and I’ll use a word that has a negative connotation, but exploited all this cheap labor, which it seems like the the global supply chain has done a pretty good job of that already with China being the workshop of the world, India and the Philippines being the call centers of the world, and the code writers and software producers of the world. So we’ve already done that. I mean, where do we go next that that has already hit the hedonic index, the exploitation of cheap labor has occurred, it’s it’s dropped by 95%. And now, we actually see labor costs going up, although slightly because it’s so much cheaper than America still. But we see wages rising in China. So aren’t we it hasn’t battle already occurred, that that’s already priced into the global economy.
Richard Duncan 22:31
Right, of course, it has occurred to a considerable extent. And yes, over the last several years, wages in China have gone up. But you have to keep in mind that China now is at the very peak of a very long economic bubble. And there’s a very real possibility that China’s bubble is going to pop. In fact, I would say it’s almost certain. And when it does, wages are not going to continue to go higher. In fact, they’re very likely to drop in China. Only a few years ago, when the US crisis started. China’s trade surplus with the US contracted for that one year. And the headlines in China were 20 million factory workers lose their jobs and have to go back to the countryside.
Jason Hartman 23:17
I remember, those videos were rather striking, when we saw the video of the workers literally leaving the factories, that was pretty shocking to see that
Richard Duncan 23:26
exactly. And now, it’s very likely that wages in China are going to stop going up now that their bubble is beginning to deflate. Now they could have a very hard landing, or they may have a more soft landing like Japan has had for the last 20 years. But either way, their wages aren’t going to continue appreciating. And I mean, let’s let’s not become too optimistic about the level of Chinese wages. 80% of the people in China still earn less than $10 a day. And so if the Chinese wages ever went to the astronomically high level of $15 a day, the jobs would just move to India, where there are easily 500 million people who would happily work for $5 a day. So I think there’s a whole lot further to go. And this process of pushing down wages in the developed countries like the United States and Europe, there’s still many more jobs that can be shipped to India and China and Vietnam and India, Indonesia, given how dramatically lower wages still are there relative to the US and Europe. So there’s a whole lot further this globalization, nary pressures can drive us down.
Jason Hartman 24:39
Well, that’s interesting and fair enough on all of that I would just say is one skepticism that arises is that yes, maybe they can get $5 an hour or $5 a day labor versus $10 a day labor. However, what real difference does that make in the price of a product that is already 95% lower Then labor cost in westernized, prosperous, westernized countries, or I should say westernized countries living under the illusion of prosperity like America. How do you like
Richard Duncan 25:10
that one? Right? Well, you know, for instance, technology continues to advance. In the future, the Americans may have the option of consulting a doctor in India, over the Internet, or Skype and paying the Doctor 90% less than they pay their American doctor, putting all the American doctors essentially out of business or you know, I mean, it’s a bit of an exaggeration. I get the idea on one example of how globalization could continue to put downward pressure on the wage structure and across the spectrum in the US.
Jason Hartman 25:46
Yeah, very interesting, interesting stuff. So you see a deflationary future then, right?
Richard Duncan 25:50
Well, I think the future, I think everyone needs to understand that after this, four and a half decade long, credit induced global economic bubble. Now, the only thing that is preventing us from collapsing into a depression is the government. The government’s are spending trillions of dollars in budget deficits, and finance, financing a lot of this paper money creation. So going forward, whether or not we have inflation, or deflation is going to depend on what the government policy is. And when you try to project out five or 10 years into the future, you really can’t say with any certainty what the government policy will be at that point, because we don’t know who the government will be
Jason Hartman 26:35
will generally though, I mean, two things just generally come up there. And I love the way bill Bonner with a Gora financial the daily reckoning I’m sure you’re familiar with Bill, the way he said it was interesting. I remember reading a long time ago, in one of his newsletters, he said politics, always list listing like a boat list to the left it generally the the the nature of the political thing is it becomes more Liberal government becomes bigger. Certainly, we don’t know what the government will be like 10 years from now. But if you just look at human nature alone, politicians throughout history have always pandered for votes. And the way they do that is by offering free stuff to people who was at George Bernard Shaw, a government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul. Right. And so that generally, to me, says money creation, and a tendency to have qe 34567 qe 90 to call it by whatever name you want, but more money creation, the deflation is too hard pill to swallow, because it’s really destructive, maybe more so than inflation, in my opinion, because deflation causes people to wait. And waiting reduces the velocity of money. And when you reduce the velocity of money, that’s a more feeds more into that spiral. So it seems to me that the preference is to inflate your way out of the debt, inflate your way out of the promises you’ve made. That seems to be the best business plan for politicians that want to win elections, you know, and keep their jobs.
Richard Duncan 28:25
You raised a lot of interesting points there, going back to the beginning of what you’re saying just now about politics tending generally, to move toward the left. And everyone should not forget that we have only had democracy in the West universal, universal voting for less than 100 years. It wasn’t that long ago, where just a few centuries ago, where we had landed the landed aristocracy, the Kings had complete control of everything. And so if you look back to what happened, it hasn’t always moved continually to the left, even within the last 100 years. For instance, the last time we had a credit bubble like this was during the 1920s. And that credit bubble came about for a similar reason. We broke the link between dollars of between well between money and gold during World War One. And to fight the war. All the European nations went off the gold standard. And they created a lot of paper money to fight the war in Europe. And they issued a lot of government debt. And all the debt and paper money issued to fight World War One led to a credit bubble that we call the roaring 20s. And then similar to the one that we have now. And when that bubble popped, politics didn’t necessarily move to the left. In Europe, politics took a hard turn to the right. The Germans became fascist and took over and took over Europe, and the Japanese became fascist and took over Asia. And democracy was almost completely wiped out. In the US, it took a shift to the left FDR, and FDR, in a sense, save capitalism from itself. So it’s not certain that things will necessarily keep moving, as you say, toward the left or toward greater democracy, or social equal quality.
Jason Hartman 30:13
I don’t mean greater democracy. I just mean greater pandering. If you look at communist revolution in, in Russia, for example, that was a movement toward more free stuff. Essentially, if you look at the Nazi Party, that was the that was the National Socialist. So it’s sort of I don’t know, I guess one could debate whether those were right or left movements, actually, depending on how you look at it. I don’t know, maybe you disagree with me, you’re welcome to just just a
Richard Duncan 30:44
thought, again, interesting, interesting issues there. But I think in the United, I think in the United States, everybody should recognize that this sort of system that we actually have in reality, is not what it’s presented to be. And we’re told we have a capitalist system. But in fact, there’s very little about the kind of system that we have in the United States. Now that is capitalist. For instance, the government spends 24% of GDP, that means one out of every $4 is spent by the
Jason Hartman 31:13
government. That’s insane.
Richard Duncan 31:15
And, of course, as you have already mentioned, in addition to that, so that’s not capitalism, but but also under cap under capitalism, gold was money, and the government had nothing to do with it. Now the Fed creates the money and manipulates its value. And the growth dynamic is completely different. under capitalism, economic growth occurred through investment, and savings. In other words, businessmen would invest, some of them would make a profit, they would save that profit or, or accumulate the capital, hence, capitalism and repeat investment and savings, investment savings. That’s how capitalism created growth. But in our system, our system has been driven by a completely different process. For the last four decades, our system has been driven by credit creation and consumption, and more credit creation and more consumption. And that’s created very rapid economic growth. But now the danger is, it looks like this new system, which I call credit ism, instead of capitalism, it looks like credit ism can’t expand any further because the private sector can’t repay the debt that it has already. And so when you really look at the reality of our economic system, there seem to be a tendency to think that most of the government money is spent on supporting poor people. But that’s not really true. I mean, the government spends so much in so many ways, it really supports every second segment of society, the very wealthy, the middle class and the poor. Our entire social structure is built around government spending and government intervention. And so it is not as simple as a left right argument. And a 19th century sort of framework, really, our entire structure of our society is built around the government spending 24% of GDP, almost every major industries is supported by the government one way or the other. And 50% of the households are receiving some sort of government support. So we don’t have this isn’t capitalism, we already had some sort of government directed credit driven economic system. We’re just not managing it very well, fair enough.
Jason Hartman 33:18
You won’t get any disagreement from me on any of that. Unfortunately, you are, you’re right on your right on with that. Well, hey, give out your website. And I am sure people can get your books on amazon.com and all the usual places, right? That’s right. Yes.
Richard Duncan 33:35
My website is Richard Duncan. economics.com. And the latest book is called the new depression, the breakdown of the paper money economy. My my business is I’m a consultant and speaker. So I’m frequently travel around the world making speeches and, and meeting with normally institutional investors.
Jason Hartman 33:55
Well, fantastic. Thank you so much for joining us from across the world. And we appreciate your thoughts and your insights. Very interesting.
Richard Duncan 34:02
Thank you. It’s been a pleasure talking with you.
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